BTC/USD Swing Trade Analysis - Bearish Weekend Ahead
Well, folks, looks like I was wrong in my 
BTCUSD analysis yesterday. The downturn was much harder than I expected (pink line). I'm glad I didn't buy!
The question is now: how much lower will it go?
Indicators:
The MACD is telling me that this isn't over yet. The lines are fairly separate and I expect they won't get together again (to start an uptrend) for the next 8 hours or even longer. Why? Even when the RSI was at almost 50% (Feb 23 19:00 EST) it took a whole day for them to cross again.
This can be confirmed by looking at the RSI, which last closed at ~37%. This means there isn't a lot of resistance for the price to move down.
On the other hand, the volume is not terribly high, which means that many traders are waiting to see what happens. Instead of buying to push the price up, the bulls are sitting on the fence. This might give a chance for the bears to push the price even lower.
Patterns:
Even though I was wrong on the pink lines, you can see how I was spot on with the support and resistance (Fibonacci?) lines. It's amazing how precise this can be. I understand why many people use it, and I will be using it from now on as well.
There could be a double bottom, but I don't see this confirmed in the MACD or RSI (or maybe I'm not reading it right).
I will check again later this afternoon to see if that confirmation is stronger, but for now I still think it can go lower.
Conclusion:
For the weekend, I expect another test of the ~44k bottom before breaking that support and going even further down (either to ~40k or ~37k).
Many people stay out of the market on the weekend and that's when big swings happen (maybe because there's more bots and less humans?)
I am still a fairly beginner at this, so please let me know what you think of this analysis in the comments. I am open to all ideas and constructive feedback ;)
Disclaimer:
None of this is investment or financial advice. Cyrptocurrency is very risky. Only invest what you are comfortable losing.
BTCUSD analysis yesterday. The downturn was much harder than I expected (pink line). I'm glad I didn't buy!The question is now: how much lower will it go?
Indicators:
The MACD is telling me that this isn't over yet. The lines are fairly separate and I expect they won't get together again (to start an uptrend) for the next 8 hours or even longer. Why? Even when the RSI was at almost 50% (Feb 23 19:00 EST) it took a whole day for them to cross again.
This can be confirmed by looking at the RSI, which last closed at ~37%. This means there isn't a lot of resistance for the price to move down.
On the other hand, the volume is not terribly high, which means that many traders are waiting to see what happens. Instead of buying to push the price up, the bulls are sitting on the fence. This might give a chance for the bears to push the price even lower.
Patterns:
Even though I was wrong on the pink lines, you can see how I was spot on with the support and resistance (Fibonacci?) lines. It's amazing how precise this can be. I understand why many people use it, and I will be using it from now on as well.
There could be a double bottom, but I don't see this confirmed in the MACD or RSI (or maybe I'm not reading it right).
I will check again later this afternoon to see if that confirmation is stronger, but for now I still think it can go lower.
Conclusion:
For the weekend, I expect another test of the ~44k bottom before breaking that support and going even further down (either to ~40k or ~37k).
Many people stay out of the market on the weekend and that's when big swings happen (maybe because there's more bots and less humans?)
I am still a fairly beginner at this, so please let me know what you think of this analysis in the comments. I am open to all ideas and constructive feedback ;)
Disclaimer:
None of this is investment or financial advice. Cyrptocurrency is very risky. Only invest what you are comfortable losing.
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