Okay Bitcoin, is it going to be 4200 or 5200? Part 3
Updated
Okay, time for another update. It has been like we have never been in a bear market . Bears are scared nowadays and not the bulls. The is what we need for a good rally.
Today's rally got me by surprise a bit, did not think we would move up so quickly again. But that's also because i would have rather seen a bigger consolidation, creating more foundation the next wave up. So i can't say i am happy about today's movement. But at the moment it is very strong, so maybe bulls think we are in 2017 again and simply just pumpy pump again. Some alts are very good, other are falling behind a bit. But in general, it's all good. The past 7 hours we have seen a bull shake out AND a bear shake out with those Bart moves. I would like to say we are ready to move up again, but looking at the OI on Mex, it's too low. Should be more around 400 mil. So my best guess is, we will stay in the 3800/44200 for a few days maybe.
On the left we can see that big inverse H&S i have been talking about. Because of the strong rally we had this week, it has become very realistic! Volume and speed is very good. I just rather see a touch of 4400 and see the neckline start there. So like the red line, up to 4400 coming days and then drop to make the right shoulder. That would be ideal. If that happens, we would have a target around 5500 even. Depending on the volume and strength on that wave, we can make a decent judgement if the bear market is over and the long term low is set or not. Thinking that now is crazy and wishful thinking, so don't fool your self and start to hope.
Most alts also show a similar inverse H&S, so if these play out we can see we have had our panic lows and capitulation already. Same goes for Bitcoin of course.
My assumption at the lows was a big correctional wave up, making a big ABC at least. I had 2 scenario's, bearish one was first rally below 3600, than 3300 and maybe 3800. That's why i wanted to see a break of the 3600 so would could see a much bigger rally. That has happened, so there is no way we will continue the bear trend again, i am like 80% sure of that.Only a break of 3600 would put that in danger. We still need the second leg up before thinking of a bearish trend again.
The rally from the lows, has been very good and strong. As you might know, i expected several short squeezes, which didn't happen. At least not the big ones. I kept mentioning the stubborn bears who were probably shorting with anger, trying/hoping to push the market down again because they simply missed the entry at the lows :). Anyway, the lack of short squeezes is actually even better, because it was bulls buying and winning from the bears. Much better foundation than short squeeze rallies.
For me it was almost April all over again, which gave me confidence about the current rally to happen. The sentiment was becoming too obvious at the end. Bears were getting OVER confident. So we can set 2 or 3 stages from now on.
- First the smart money buying the lows, increasing during stable consolidations like the 3550 (like stepping their foot down on the bear and poking them with a stick ;). Now there has
been profit taking at these 3900/4100 levels (OI dropped) but the price has not even dropped. This indicates to me that bears have become very weak.
- Now bulls will probably just sit and wait for the price to come down a bit and load up in the 3800/3900 zone. So if we see low volume drops, that would be a decent confirmation for
that. Giving stubborn bears the feeling the rally is over already. Getting longs filled and use their shorts to fuel the breakout of the big resistance levels bringing us to the next stage.
- Normally, since this market is so emotional, we would like to see these bears turn in to bulls as well. Making bears even weaker and the FOMO can start to kick in. Like the
9000/10000 zone at the 10K high half year ago.
I get a lot of questions about if the long term low is set and the bull market has started, well let me make it very simple for you, i don't know and i actually don't even care. Why am i saying this, also very simple. This is the main reason why most of the retail traders have lost money this year, because of FOMO. Me and my members have a swing long pos from the lows and the strategy is very simple. If we do move up to 5K prices, based on the strength we will judge if we drop again or continue up. Thinking about that now and here, will make your life sooooo much more difficult and complicated. Just plan upfront and stick to it, unless you see real changes on high time frames. Not the noise on the lower time frame. This is really a/the virus that has been imprinted in the heads of everyone in the crypto sphere. I have been seeing it all year long. This is the reason why people can't cut their losses when they bought at the high and the trend start to turn to the bear side again. Always the "what if' question. They have all been hypnotized in 2018 with the HODL and all the other nice words. One of the worst IMO,is the fact that everyone thinks that as long as the amount of coins increase, your a king. Because even though the $ value drops 95%, you have twice the amount of coins. Because it's a guarantee it will go up sooner or later. Yeah right, nice fairy tail. This only works if you pick a winner, if you pick one of the few that could/might really become something. I have been there and done that in the DotCom bubble, it was not near as sick as this market (no social media which made it much more difficult to spread the virus), where i also bought a stock which was the real future. Interactive Television, back in 2001. I even did my research. It dropped from the ATH 300 to 50 and i kept buying up 3 times up until $20. After each buy we had a bounce and i felt proud i bought more, because the profit became even bigger. Every time i took my calculator and started to do the math; "what if we go back to 300 again, i will be even richer than the first time i bought. I felt even better the third time a bought and we went up again. Anyway, i kept looking at the 300 ATH price and not knowing what the real potential was of this company. I knew what market cap meant, but i did not know that another company could simply pop up, copy their tech, do better marketing and destroy the company i had bought stocks off. Long story short, 2 years later the stock dropped to $0.50 and i never looked back again since. Lesson learned!!
Getting off topic a bit :). For now, i have drawn to right shoulders on the left. It could be we touched the neckline already today with that rejection and we are making the right shoulder the coming few days. That would mean it is much too early for a continuation of the rally, the right shoulder is much to small to have good/real value. It has to be much bigger (in time) than this. It could be the neckline has not been touched yet and we move towards the 4400ish and THEN start with the right shoulder. That would be super bullish if the market is able to touch the 4400 with a day or so. But whatever happens, i don't want to see a break of 4400. Need more consolidation before breaking the 4400.
The short term movement is difficult to judge now, today's rally was not in my short term play book and because of that i still have to make a new one. Best guess i can make for now is, we will retest the 3900/3850 zone again before breaking the 4200.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Today's rally got me by surprise a bit, did not think we would move up so quickly again. But that's also because i would have rather seen a bigger consolidation, creating more foundation the next wave up. So i can't say i am happy about today's movement. But at the moment it is very strong, so maybe bulls think we are in 2017 again and simply just pumpy pump again. Some alts are very good, other are falling behind a bit. But in general, it's all good. The past 7 hours we have seen a bull shake out AND a bear shake out with those Bart moves. I would like to say we are ready to move up again, but looking at the OI on Mex, it's too low. Should be more around 400 mil. So my best guess is, we will stay in the 3800/44200 for a few days maybe.
On the left we can see that big inverse H&S i have been talking about. Because of the strong rally we had this week, it has become very realistic! Volume and speed is very good. I just rather see a touch of 4400 and see the neckline start there. So like the red line, up to 4400 coming days and then drop to make the right shoulder. That would be ideal. If that happens, we would have a target around 5500 even. Depending on the volume and strength on that wave, we can make a decent judgement if the bear market is over and the long term low is set or not. Thinking that now is crazy and wishful thinking, so don't fool your self and start to hope.
Most alts also show a similar inverse H&S, so if these play out we can see we have had our panic lows and capitulation already. Same goes for Bitcoin of course.
My assumption at the lows was a big correctional wave up, making a big ABC at least. I had 2 scenario's, bearish one was first rally below 3600, than 3300 and maybe 3800. That's why i wanted to see a break of the 3600 so would could see a much bigger rally. That has happened, so there is no way we will continue the bear trend again, i am like 80% sure of that.Only a break of 3600 would put that in danger. We still need the second leg up before thinking of a bearish trend again.
The rally from the lows, has been very good and strong. As you might know, i expected several short squeezes, which didn't happen. At least not the big ones. I kept mentioning the stubborn bears who were probably shorting with anger, trying/hoping to push the market down again because they simply missed the entry at the lows :). Anyway, the lack of short squeezes is actually even better, because it was bulls buying and winning from the bears. Much better foundation than short squeeze rallies.
For me it was almost April all over again, which gave me confidence about the current rally to happen. The sentiment was becoming too obvious at the end. Bears were getting OVER confident. So we can set 2 or 3 stages from now on.
- First the smart money buying the lows, increasing during stable consolidations like the 3550 (like stepping their foot down on the bear and poking them with a stick ;). Now there has
been profit taking at these 3900/4100 levels (OI dropped) but the price has not even dropped. This indicates to me that bears have become very weak.
- Now bulls will probably just sit and wait for the price to come down a bit and load up in the 3800/3900 zone. So if we see low volume drops, that would be a decent confirmation for
that. Giving stubborn bears the feeling the rally is over already. Getting longs filled and use their shorts to fuel the breakout of the big resistance levels bringing us to the next stage.
- Normally, since this market is so emotional, we would like to see these bears turn in to bulls as well. Making bears even weaker and the FOMO can start to kick in. Like the
9000/10000 zone at the 10K high half year ago.
I get a lot of questions about if the long term low is set and the bull market has started, well let me make it very simple for you, i don't know and i actually don't even care. Why am i saying this, also very simple. This is the main reason why most of the retail traders have lost money this year, because of FOMO. Me and my members have a swing long pos from the lows and the strategy is very simple. If we do move up to 5K prices, based on the strength we will judge if we drop again or continue up. Thinking about that now and here, will make your life sooooo much more difficult and complicated. Just plan upfront and stick to it, unless you see real changes on high time frames. Not the noise on the lower time frame. This is really a/the virus that has been imprinted in the heads of everyone in the crypto sphere. I have been seeing it all year long. This is the reason why people can't cut their losses when they bought at the high and the trend start to turn to the bear side again. Always the "what if' question. They have all been hypnotized in 2018 with the HODL and all the other nice words. One of the worst IMO,is the fact that everyone thinks that as long as the amount of coins increase, your a king. Because even though the $ value drops 95%, you have twice the amount of coins. Because it's a guarantee it will go up sooner or later. Yeah right, nice fairy tail. This only works if you pick a winner, if you pick one of the few that could/might really become something. I have been there and done that in the DotCom bubble, it was not near as sick as this market (no social media which made it much more difficult to spread the virus), where i also bought a stock which was the real future. Interactive Television, back in 2001. I even did my research. It dropped from the ATH 300 to 50 and i kept buying up 3 times up until $20. After each buy we had a bounce and i felt proud i bought more, because the profit became even bigger. Every time i took my calculator and started to do the math; "what if we go back to 300 again, i will be even richer than the first time i bought. I felt even better the third time a bought and we went up again. Anyway, i kept looking at the 300 ATH price and not knowing what the real potential was of this company. I knew what market cap meant, but i did not know that another company could simply pop up, copy their tech, do better marketing and destroy the company i had bought stocks off. Long story short, 2 years later the stock dropped to $0.50 and i never looked back again since. Lesson learned!!
Getting off topic a bit :). For now, i have drawn to right shoulders on the left. It could be we touched the neckline already today with that rejection and we are making the right shoulder the coming few days. That would mean it is much too early for a continuation of the rally, the right shoulder is much to small to have good/real value. It has to be much bigger (in time) than this. It could be the neckline has not been touched yet and we move towards the 4400ish and THEN start with the right shoulder. That would be super bullish if the market is able to touch the 4400 with a day or so. But whatever happens, i don't want to see a break of 4400. Need more consolidation before breaking the 4400.
The short term movement is difficult to judge now, today's rally was not in my short term play book and because of that i still have to make a new one. Best guess i can make for now is, we will retest the 3900/3850 zone again before breaking the 4200.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
It's already moving up, but there is a possible fractal on the right. Already pushing against the limit. If the 4100ish breaks it wil be already invalidated. It already broke as we speak. On the left i have shown a possible bigger ABC for this rally. But a break of the high around 4180 suggests we might just continue to move up.
The fact that we bounced up from that green support, yesterday's high, is a very strong sign. Showing bulls are very eager.
Note
Alts have improved a lot compared to earlier today when we made that rally. During the sideways show after the rally, alts have gained ground and as you can see, some have even reached the 4400 inverse H&S level of Bitcoin. About the OI, it could be that we move to the 4400/4300 and during the right shoulder getting the increase of OI. That would also be a realistic possibility. The 4170ish could also become a double top. Already got a small rejection, but if the bull can hold the 4100, the pressure will be on the bears
Note
Bulls really want to break the high, they keep pushing. Looks like a small triangleNote
And rejection confirmed. 4080 is support and the 4040 is a big support.Note
Looking bad, no bounce at all, broke the support very quickly! For a sec it looked like the bulls would break up, but looking at the volume, the bears (i assume bulls pushing back to lower prices to get back in at low prices) pushed back and and we broke all the supports way to easy. The bear flag looks solid and has a target around 3850/70. If we break up above the 4040 it will probably stabilize again. The ABC correction as i mentioned is probably in full play now. Only a push above the 4040 (seeing an attempt now) could change things. We also just bounced up from that previous inverse H&S at the low, it could be a real support. I can see a small inverse H&S now at 4030. Already back in the bear flag, which is a bullish sign. Taking away the speed of the drop. Just saw a 10 mil sell on Bitmex, which looked fake, but it got bought completely. Now lets see if the right shoulder fails or succeeds
Note
The target got reached to the point and made a big bounce up again. Now we can see bulls are once again pushing hard to move up, but first attempt already failed. I still think it is too soon to break the 4100/4200, but it's not as if the market listens to me ;). I think if the 4010/4000 breaks, we could drop some more again. So just a small warning for everyone who is fomoing. I just told my members as well, If your in a swing long (as we are) this is not the part to increase the position, you need to do that at a confirmed low support, not at a resistance which got sold off several times already.Note
Started to look like yesterday, but the drop is much smaller, so there is a 50/50 chance again now for the bulls, 4060 seems to be a level to break on the low time frame. above 4080 will put the bulls on top againNote
4000 seems to be a support level for a bearish wedge. Volume is not dropping much but it is slightly dropping though.Note
If we dont get above 4040 quickly, we will probably test the low again around 3900/3850Note
There is no dumping, even though it's dropping. I think that's a good sign for the mid-term. Bulls are not scared as they used to be the past months (maybe). I still want it to reach at least the green support. Best case we drop below it and see if we can hold the 3800ish. So in other words, breaking an important support but seeing support getting in 100 point below it. Would be a good sign.Level for the bulls for now is around 4000 and second around 4040
Note
And again a bounce from the support, would it really be that simple :). 3950 seems to be a a level now and that trend line from this drop. If those break, the 4000 is the next step again. I still think down is best, but the bulls seem to be very resilient. Note
We keeping seeing decent bounces, so we could be seeing a triangle form now. If we seen another move up above the 3950, we could be testing 4000/4020. If we get rejected again, we will see a break down. Alts are also dropping again, some broke first supports and other are bumping against it. Note
The triangle would have a target just below 3600 even, that would be a bit much. Would not really fit my bullish view to be honest. So don't know how valid it will be. If we a high volume drop below the support, it could become likely. Just pointing out the possible dangerNote
Damn, within minutes after my posts it breaks the triangle turns to crash mode.No real bounce yet, not good. Rather not see a quick drop to 3600 here
Note
Bulls need to break the red resistance on the left, to have a chance to prevent a drop to 3600. That would mean things are still bearish on the lower time frame, but increases the chances for a lower high. I don't expect a move above 3950 within a day. Just want to see some bounces up and down in the 3900/3750 range for a day or so. Building support. If we don't see this, my bullish view gets a bit in dangerNote
Note
This is good, from very bearish the bullish bigger picture is still alive. Rather see 3880/3900 get touched as well. If we can hold the green zone as a support for the coming day or so, see some bounces in between, it could become the low this weekend and maybe think of beginning stage 2 of the rally. But want a solid consolidation, so only breaking the 4200 after 3/5 days. Not any sooner.The triangle is still in play though, but if we see some bounce like mentioned above, it would mean the higher time frame has more weight than the triangle
Note
Something like this, to give you an illustration of what i just saidNote
This is what we want to see the coming days with the alts. If we see good stable corrections, not dropping too much, it would be a great confirmation for the bullish scenario.Note
Seems like the market likes my guideline :) Anyway, going as planned which is good, ideally we see price get stable in this 3750/3900 zone for a day or 2. We have room until 3600, but would not be ideal for the strength of the second wave up. So best to see it stay above the 3750ish. From Monday see it move to the the 4150/3900 range again and stay there for a few days again. And THEN we break up. This scenario would be ideal. With ideal, i mean it would have the best foundation for a second rally IMONote
Still follow the weekend blue line :) Now assuming we will drop again, this will be the moment to see if we form a higher low like the blue line or make a lower low. If if we make a lower one, i want to see it stay above the 3730/3700. Anything below that level, it would be very likely to see the target of the triangle from yesterday around 3600Note
No bounce yet, so not looking good so far. Need to see some support soon, otherwise the lower low will probably happenNote
Amazing, following the blue line to the point. It really looked like it was going to drop and all of a sudden the buy volume increased and short squeeze got forced. I think it's just a Saturday shake out, so unless we break the 4030/4080 zone, i think the correction down or consolidation is not over yet. So we could still make a lower high here. I still think continuing the rally already would be too soon. OI on Bitmex keeps dropping, which is a small bearish sign at this spot. Also looks like alts are not really convinced either. But they are at the starting grid though. So if this small bull flag starts to take a lot of time, more than 30 minutes, chances will increase it will be one of these fake bull flags we have seen countless times.
So not really sure at this very moment
Note
Alts are catching up now with ETH being in the lead. What looked to become a small double top, could be an ascending triangle now. If the bull can hold that, we could rally more. So if the bull flag is real, we could be pushing through that resistance zone i showed earlier. Just sitting this one out and waiting. A rally here would not fit my picture. And Saturday's are usually the most unreliable days to tradeNote
I still think it's too early for a move up, but who am i to stop this market from going up :). Still in the lower high zone here, which will remain in my view as long as we stay below the 4030/4080 zone. A break of 4100 would give the short term bullish price action a much bigger chance than the current level.
We can see a clear range on the right, which will prob give us a clearer view of what the next step will be if it breaks. We can see it clearly doesn't have the shape of a normal bull flag, more of a very ugly H&S. But shorting here is also dangerous. Alts rallied earlier but have slowed down, but not dropping at all since, they are all also waiting for Bitcoin's next step it seem.
I think for the bigger bullish picture, would be much better to see it stay in the 3700/4000 range for another day or 2. Make a much stronger support zone, where the market can't just break through anymore the coming weeks or much longer even. If this would be it already and lets say we rally to 5K and drop again after a while, this support level around 3800 won't be worth that much. So for long term bullish price action (so 5K, then down and up again), this should be a much bigger support zone than this.
Note
ETH made a big jump yesterday, Neo just made a big jump, EOS already started one, other SEEM to want to do the same thing as well. So this could all just be a lot of noise from Bitcoins side, just as we had in April during the 7900/8200 zone. Where Bitcoin just ping ponged up and down, while in the mean time Alts were moving higher.yesterday i assume Bitcoin is in that yellow area, but now i am starting to think, maybe we are already passed that stage? And in the blue zone? I remember i was quite confused back than as will, in this stage. Back than i also called for that big bear shake out, but i kept asking for a good solid consolidation, a good correction for the rally, to have a better foundation for the longer term. Same as i am doing now :)
Note
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I see many people comparing the current movement to that of a few weeks ago. But there are big differences though. Back then the drop was below important support level. This time it stayed above it. Anyway, the current bull flag can give a very good guidance. With the 4000 being an important level for the flag and the pullback of this small break out
Note
And most importantly, this rally from the 3200 is much bigger and the volume is much higherNote
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