Short

Updated

BTC/USD - Step 2: Wipe the LONGS

We are almost getting there, before some serious uptrend, but its not time yet, IMO. Earlier today we had a very impulsive move, it was expected by a few, thats why it happened. The market doesnt follow the crowd.

"But, we are reversing".
"Soros will drive this down to 5 4 3 2 1 game over thousand.".
"This is the correct trendline not that".
"We are here on this fractal not there".
"Use log not linear".

Honestly, i found it very amusing that so many people use history to predict the price movement. Since its so easy and you all follow the same concept why there are so many different opinions and views? Let me tell you why. Perspective aka bias. You see what you WANT to happen and not what CAN happen.

So here it goes, one more scenario.

Yes, im aware that there can be many variations about the count after that low. It doesnt matter, its all about the fibs. FIBS DONT LIE.

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Scary how it hovers around the target, isnt it? You are probably thinking "No way this is gonna happen".

It can go slightly higher and make another expanding triangle like the previous (x) point. Theoretically i should have placed the invalidation point to the E of that (x) (9.5k) but i was confident it wont reach there. Oh well. Besides, fibs line better with the corrent target, I think...

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Not the best daily close for a bull run. Mean while on the big boys game.

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Or in simple words. Paint a reversal candle and get ready for a last pump. This game is getting old.

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There is a chance that we have found the top.

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Note that this can be a diagonal and it just completed the 3rd, down to ~8.2 for the 4th and one leg up. Yes its ugly, but i havent seen Bitcoin following "pretty" structures for the past 90 days.

- Can it be bullish?
- Yes
- Go go Bitcoin, to the moon!
- Dont FOMO, this move is not healthy, even if its bullish wait for a retracement to enter. A short trade is more profitable up here.

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I had drawn this few hours ago, this is the best it can get for the next couple hours, imo.

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Its missing at least a wave before some bounce. I personally think this is just the begining. But to be fair it can double top or slightly higher( honestly dont wait for that).

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I have been thinking this for a while and i think i will stop posting updates and ideas from now on. Just like SignalSwiss did a month ago. I do have skin but i refuse to stay when people dont follow the House Rules and are rewarded for that.

People with quality are getting temporary banned and people that post their ideas under viral ideas so they can get views and followers or copying other ideas without giving credit are getting rewarded.

Is this how this site is supposed to work? Then i have been misslead and i dont want to be part of this anymore.

Main reason that im running away like a little girl.
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/k/KwbcA9Hm.png

Good luck people, you will really need it when you follow market manipulators and members of P&D groups.

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And in case that you wonder that this is just "random".

Click on the share bottom on this idea and the at "make it yours". You have all my work with just a few clicks.

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There is no need to force EW logic in something like this. Shorts have already rising, slow and steady while longs are dropping. One pump will trigger the stop-buys to trap the longs, some sideways action for keeping the hope alive and then, oh well.

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If it has more uptrend, it should peak around 8350 - 8500 .

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Some fib correlations according to the 3 most probable counts.

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5:1 short trade

Trade active

Ok, play time is over. It was fun while the bots were keeping the price alive.
Daily RSI resistance at 62 and the usual fake out on the pitchfork.
Stop loss at 9.3k

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It should be topping of here. People can fight for the over 9k memes or the "green" doji daily close. There is no real structure or geomentry here.

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This can still be a mini triangle 4th and we see one last push to 9.3k - 9.4k. The count invalidation point of the scenario is at the highest wick of E ( just below 9.5k).
I cant count the inner waves to be certain, this move is "2organic4me" .

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Stop loss raised above 9.5k, it can still go up to 94xx and prbably it wiil.

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Very interesting price action. In before 1-2 days side ways action till the momentum bots reset or someone pulls the trigger. Organic.

Trade closed: stop reached

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Well, it happens. Lets see your FOMO turning into fear now ladies and gentlemen.

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It should go lower than this, its just finding wedge support, for now. Dont forget, this has happened before. Codename was "MtGox Trustee" and password "REKT" .
But this time its different, right?

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Probably my (x) point is a simple ABC and not a triangle, in that case, bullish confirmation is above 9.9k for my scenario. It can bounce as many times as you want below that, it doesnt confirm bullish. And there is also the major resistance at 11.8k. Dont forget the bigger picture and dont let the alt coins party fool you. WE KNEW they would bounce before Bitcoin did, their bounce area was on my previous short ideas. Some made it there (ADA , XLM, ENG) some others barely not ( like XRP).

Of course that doesnt mean "dont buy", it means "dont forget".

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Smaller timeframes make sense on Bitcoin again, who would knew??
Still expecting a lower low to around 8.5k, this is probably some sideways 4th wave.

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Dont trade based on this, just sharing my thought process. Longs are slowly increasing here.

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Not bad for someone with 2 failed ideas on Bitcoin i would say.

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Ok, almost on target.

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It probably is something more complex now. I will update once it starts making sense... Short term bias: Bearish to neutral.

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Should stop around here or 9.5k. Theoretically, cause pratically it needs to be fed longs for going down.

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Quick update here.

I wont bother to draw waves on something "organic" like this uptrend, its not worth my time to find the perfect target. They are there but not with the usual structure. Either you believe on EWT or not market trends in fives and corrects in threes. Now the question is, is the fifth in or its still missing? If you care so much about the numbers, my bias is this:
1) if its in, the top is around 9.5-9.6.
2) if its not in, it shouldnt go further than 9.9.

Do you want to go long? Fine! Understand that you are joining in late.
Do you want to go short? Fine! Understand that the House doesnt care about the price, it cares about your liquidation.
Do you want to play their game? Fine! Re-adjust the way you enter and your stop-loss, they know where your stop-loss is.

Check the patterns on the whole uptrend, you will find the answer there.

No further updates here, but i may post a few pics after the damage is done, just for the lulz.

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You have seen this before. Dejavu.
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/y/YKs37ykn.png

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Just wanna clarify that the targets on this idea are not valid anymore, not in the short/mid term at least. I dont want to post a new idea when its direction is not clear.

EW have to do with human psychology, and its very clear why the impulsive moves on Bitcoin are not that clear ( compared to other coins ) and thats mainly because "alt coin season". No one wants to sell while alts are "mooning".

Why no moon LTC just like BTC and ETH, sir? Because there are no LTC pairs.
Then why moon BCH? Because Roger Ver and the "TRUE BITCOIN".

Of course those are not the ONLY reasons, obviously. ETH was way oversold, both on USD and BTC pair, for example.

Once we have more confirmation on the trend i will post a new idea, but short/mid term im bearish biased. It needs to have a serious retracement before going higher. Just sayin.

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My thoughs on this sell off. It can have a bounce here but i dont think its gonna be enough to convience be that its over.

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Was drawn 2 hours ago, i though i post it but apparently i didnt... Woops

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Bitcoin, its never easy to understand something that is so manipulated.

Its very hard for me to believe that the corection is done here, 30 days of uptrend cant be corrected in less than a week. Yes, the market is faster than the traditional ones but come on, have some common sense.

Yes, i have seen some counts with an irregular flat ending here but i cant accept them for 2 main reasons:
1) It doesnt match both visually and in time/duration of the inner waves. Duration of the B wave is more than A and C combined.
2) As far is i know, when the A wave is a zigzag there is no irregular B wave.

The retracements are pretty shallow and dont help at all. So, to sum up what do we have here according to my opinion.
1) there are 2 impulsive moves connected by a very short retracement that doesnt even make it to the .382
2)Thats very low chances of being a second wave but its possible so we cant ignore it
3) A retracement that shallow that its connecting two impulsive moves is most likely some kind of triangle B wave, to my knoweledge, this is the most likely scenario
4) It will probably be some kind of extended correction and we are gonna have some sideways action during the next days between 8.5-9k levels for the most part
5) Untill there is more data favoring going long or short i cant advice any trade
6) What i can advice though, is to keep an eye on the alts, the majority of them dont have 5 impulsive moves

No further updates here, the idea was way off and the post is already too long.

Good luck.

Acel

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Acel

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