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I am seeing a lot of fractals comparing these two movements, so decided to take a closer look.
January 2015 - The decrease began on Nov. 13, 2014, when the price reached a high of $453.92.The decrease culminated with a low of $152.4, which was the capitulation wick. The entire daily candlestick was below the lower Bollinger band, suggestive that the move had gone way below the regular deviation from its trading range. A 11-day upward trend followed with a high of $309.1 being reached on Jan. 26. This wick went above the upper Bollinger band. Afterward, the price stabilized before gradually beginning an upward trend.
March 2020 - The decrease began on Feb. 13, 2020 when a high of $10,500 was reached. The wick low of March 13 that reached a low of $3,850 was the capitulation wick, in which the entire daily candlestick went below the lower Bollinger band.The price has been increasing since, having done so by 78% in 11 days.
The main difference between the two moves, which is the recovery rate, since it is smaller in the current movement. Just looking at the downward move, the opposite should have occurred, since the downward trend in 2020 was much more rapid. In addition, the price is nowhere close to the upper Bollinger band or the opening price of the bearish engulfing candlestick which began the current decrease.
Therefore, the recent BTC price decrease shares numerous similarities to that of January 2015, which marked a long-term bottom before a several year upward trend began. However, the recovery since the March 13 low has been much weaker than what transpired in 2015, allowing for the possibility that the price is not actually following the fractal but will eventually make another low.
A like & comment is greatly appreciated.
I am seeing a lot of fractals comparing these two movements, so decided to take a closer look.
January 2015 - The decrease began on Nov. 13, 2014, when the price reached a high of $453.92.The decrease culminated with a low of $152.4, which was the capitulation wick. The entire daily candlestick was below the lower Bollinger band, suggestive that the move had gone way below the regular deviation from its trading range. A 11-day upward trend followed with a high of $309.1 being reached on Jan. 26. This wick went above the upper Bollinger band. Afterward, the price stabilized before gradually beginning an upward trend.
March 2020 - The decrease began on Feb. 13, 2020 when a high of $10,500 was reached. The wick low of March 13 that reached a low of $3,850 was the capitulation wick, in which the entire daily candlestick went below the lower Bollinger band.The price has been increasing since, having done so by 78% in 11 days.
The main difference between the two moves, which is the recovery rate, since it is smaller in the current movement. Just looking at the downward move, the opposite should have occurred, since the downward trend in 2020 was much more rapid. In addition, the price is nowhere close to the upper Bollinger band or the opening price of the bearish engulfing candlestick which began the current decrease.
Therefore, the recent BTC price decrease shares numerous similarities to that of January 2015, which marked a long-term bottom before a several year upward trend began. However, the recovery since the March 13 low has been much weaker than what transpired in 2015, allowing for the possibility that the price is not actually following the fractal but will eventually make another low.
A like & comment is greatly appreciated.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.