🚀 Bitcoin Cycle Update – What’s Next?
This setup is purely based on my higher timeframe (HTF) analysis, which I’ve shared before. If you’ve been following along, you already know the drill—I covered this in my last video breakdown on TradingView:
📽 Cycle Analysis Video:
📌 Tracking Idea: Bitcoin Cycle Analysis -
Positioning & Market Outlook
We loaded our final spot buys months ago and have been scaling out since November—not fully out, but we’ve booked profits on the majority of our Bitcoin and altcoin holdings over the last three months.
💰 Spot Bag Adds: BTC Spot Buys -
Now, I’m still tracking a 3-Drive pattern for this cycle’s top. A previous 3-Drive setup on the daily was invalidated after choppy price action and sideways movement, but I’m still pursuing the same idea—just on the weekly and monthly timeframes now.
🔹 Key Zone:
73K – $69K (Major SR level I’ve been watching)
🔹 Yealy Pivot Zone -
🔹 Time-Based Bias: Still refining my time analysis—so take it with a grain of salt 😅
USDT Dominance & Key Confluences
One of the biggest confirmations I’m watching is USDT Dominance. I had been tracking an FVG around 4.9x%, which held for a week before breaking:
📈 USDT Dominance Chart:
Right now, the focus is on trendline resistance & Fibonacci retracement levels. If USDT.D breaks higher, the idea is invalid, and I’ll simply keep riding my shorts.
Execution Plan – How I’m Playing This
This setup is strictly for spot buys. If you remember the last cycle, we accumulated BTC during the FTX crash at $18K and only added longs when we spotted a clear inverse head & shoulders setup.
🎯 This time, I’m placing spot bids & waiting for clear reactions.
🔹 Looking for WICKS into demand, NOT sideways chop.
🔹 If price chops, I EXIT—simple as that.
🔹 I’ll consider leverage positions ONLY when we see strong reactions.
I’ll keep this idea updated just like before. At the end of the day, we’re all speculators—no one can predict the market, only manage risk and play probabilities.
⚠ Risk Management: DO NOT RISK MORE THAN 5% OF YOUR PORTFOLIO ON THIS SETUP.
📢 Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This is NOT financial advice—just sharing my thoughts and analysis. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.
This setup is purely based on my higher timeframe (HTF) analysis, which I’ve shared before. If you’ve been following along, you already know the drill—I covered this in my last video breakdown on TradingView:
📽 Cycle Analysis Video:
📌 Tracking Idea: Bitcoin Cycle Analysis -
Positioning & Market Outlook
We loaded our final spot buys months ago and have been scaling out since November—not fully out, but we’ve booked profits on the majority of our Bitcoin and altcoin holdings over the last three months.
💰 Spot Bag Adds: BTC Spot Buys -
Now, I’m still tracking a 3-Drive pattern for this cycle’s top. A previous 3-Drive setup on the daily was invalidated after choppy price action and sideways movement, but I’m still pursuing the same idea—just on the weekly and monthly timeframes now.
🔹 Key Zone:
73K – $69K (Major SR level I’ve been watching)🔹 Yealy Pivot Zone -
🔹 Time-Based Bias: Still refining my time analysis—so take it with a grain of salt 😅
USDT Dominance & Key Confluences
One of the biggest confirmations I’m watching is USDT Dominance. I had been tracking an FVG around 4.9x%, which held for a week before breaking:
📈 USDT Dominance Chart:
Right now, the focus is on trendline resistance & Fibonacci retracement levels. If USDT.D breaks higher, the idea is invalid, and I’ll simply keep riding my shorts.
Execution Plan – How I’m Playing This
This setup is strictly for spot buys. If you remember the last cycle, we accumulated BTC during the FTX crash at $18K and only added longs when we spotted a clear inverse head & shoulders setup.
🎯 This time, I’m placing spot bids & waiting for clear reactions.
🔹 Looking for WICKS into demand, NOT sideways chop.
🔹 If price chops, I EXIT—simple as that.
🔹 I’ll consider leverage positions ONLY when we see strong reactions.
I’ll keep this idea updated just like before. At the end of the day, we’re all speculators—no one can predict the market, only manage risk and play probabilities.
⚠ Risk Management: DO NOT RISK MORE THAN 5% OF YOUR PORTFOLIO ON THIS SETUP.
📢 Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This is NOT financial advice—just sharing my thoughts and analysis. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.