Short

Short term long, medium term sell

By pparmy1991

Updated

The rally for BTC is not quite done yet since no obvious divergence is detected on either RSI and MACD. In the current wave, we are still on the 4th corrective subwave, a likely 5th wave is going to break the top of subwave 3. If you are already bought BTC, watch the price action around 18200-18500 level for trend reversal signals, get out the long if selling force is strong. Also if it gives us selling signals there, it would be a good selling opportunity with decent risk&reward ratio since it's likely to revisit the low around 11000 (We are in a big ABC corrective pattern of the last downside spike from 19700-11000). Trade with care!

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I think the real support is around 16250, you could buy some if price comes to that level and started to bounce back.

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Sorry, that's a typo. I mean 15250.

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Looking for buy, as mentioned above, the rally is not done yet!

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Now the trendline is broken and we have two possibilities, it depends on the price action in the following 1-2 days. If you see a bear flag crawling along the trendline, get out of the long as break even if you bought at 15250-15300. If that's the case, we will probably see another break down to 12500 level, but I still don't think 11000 will be broken at this time. The other possibility is still go back up to 18000 level from here, I will update which possibility is going to happen probably tomorrow.

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By now I think this thing is still going up. You can hold your long if you bought around 15250-15300.

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Don't be panic! Buy!

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Now breaking the trend line with solid volume, buy when you get a pull back all the way to 18000, then we will see the possibility of another down move.

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With the last huge red candle, I would prefer the following patterns. It turns out the down move happened earlier than I thought. I took $4000 lost in the last hour for trading some small crypto pairs (those pairs cannot be traded in USD, only in BTC). Until now, it's still early saying that this bull trend for BTC is completely over. Once the price comes to 9000 level, we will see the possibility based on the volume and the subsequent bounce actions.

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I have retraced back to 2014 to see the action of the beginning of last bearish trend. Very likely a deep drop to almost 50% Fib, then pull back to the place slightly higher than 61.8% percent, eventually comes to 127.2%. So I am not optimistic about our current situation, if my last prediction played well and price comes to 18000 first before tanking, we are likely to print new high. But now I would say the possibility is less.

pparmy1991

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