Careful. BTC still barely(pun) favors the bears. Target $8000.
Updated
From what I see, we are still in an ABCDE correction (purple triangle).
We could not close and confirm above the topmost black uptrend line last night on the daily. This is a significant development.
We also have not broken out and above our purple triangle. This too is significant.
Additionally, it looks like we may have one more corrective wave down (wave E). It should be noted however, that this final wave down does not alway have to occur. I am not certain of the percentage of the times that it does not complete, but I think it may be relatively high (around 30%). Comment warriors can you please kindly correct me if I am wrong.
MACD still bearish on the daily.
RSI still bearish on the daily.
Volume still relatively light except when the sellers come in.
All these remain indicators to me that we are still bearish.
I know everyone wants to get a jump on calling the bull market again, but be careful with this. You must exercise caution here in your trading. We definitely are nearing a bottom, but there is not solid indication for me yet that we should become bullish.
Take care traders!
Note
I will be closing this idea as we have broken out of our declining wedge. A positive sign to be sure. However, we are still not out of the woods yet. Therefore, I will remain active in updating my primary idea, a bounce to $14.3 with more possible selling. A touch of 8k cannot be ruled out yet. But first, short term target of $14.3! Note
I will now focus on updating my original idea:
Trade closed manually
Trade closed: target reached
Nice headfake along the way by BTC caused me to doubt what the charts were telling me all along. We've reached our target. Could go lower but my guess is that the bulls will start to step in soon.Note
Here's what ole' BTC is currently looking like:We've broken down out of our descending wedge and down out of our descending channel, capitulated, and have now move back up into both.
On the daily, we are attempting to swim above our 200MA.
It appears we are wanting to form an inverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern on the 4 hour. Volume has confirmed the left shoulder and head thus far. Right shoulder remains to be formed before this patter can be confirmed. If it plays out as expected, that second to the bottom BLUE downtrend line would form a nice neckline. The upside target then would be EXACTLY the top of the BLUE channel. Time would put us right at the intersect of this downtrend channel as well as the top BLACK uptrend line. Price would put us right at .5 FIB level. All three intersect right at the end of our inverse head-and-shoulders exhaustion target. This would form MAJOR MAJOR quad resistance, likely ensuring another strong move down.
Short term I am long.
Once we reach the top of our BLUE descending channel, I will like sell some of my position (if not most) to see what the market decides.
Should we move up, my long term target this year is 50-80k.
Should we hit our heads and move down, I will probably buy back around 11k and HODL.
We'll see how this one plays out.
Best of luck traders!
Stewdamus Trades -
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