BitcoinShort
Possible September's Bear Flag
Updated
It is a possibility that I see. It's a crazy volatile environment at the moment, we have to be VERY careful. I am leaning SHORT because the chart is showing me a possible Bear Flag on the Daily Time Frame that was been forming throughout the month of September and it's currently at the top.
I see also a very likely possibility of a FAKE OUT coming to trap some LONGS around the 6.900 Area. Similar to the Fake Break Down we saw priorly this week. If we do break 6.900 I would consider a LONG depending of how we hold above it. The 2018 Trend Line worries me after the 6.900 level.
On the down side, a break down for the flag seems more likely to me. What worries me in that scenario is that the amount of SHORTS that we saw trapped on the Fake Break Down might want to re-enter (if closed already) on a break of support around 6.300 and if the price keeps going down, there might be even more SHORTS opening on the way down. IF SHORTS go all the way up to way over All Time High levels, I think that will trigger a price reversal to trap those SHORTS and that will prevent the Bear Flag target to be reached.
I see also a very likely possibility of a FAKE OUT coming to trap some LONGS around the 6.900 Area. Similar to the Fake Break Down we saw priorly this week. If we do break 6.900 I would consider a LONG depending of how we hold above it. The 2018 Trend Line worries me after the 6.900 level.
On the down side, a break down for the flag seems more likely to me. What worries me in that scenario is that the amount of SHORTS that we saw trapped on the Fake Break Down might want to re-enter (if closed already) on a break of support around 6.300 and if the price keeps going down, there might be even more SHORTS opening on the way down. IF SHORTS go all the way up to way over All Time High levels, I think that will trigger a price reversal to trap those SHORTS and that will prevent the Bear Flag target to be reached.
Note
So the price reached the bottom of the flag and is currently holding support at the line I had drawn around 6.300 that coincides with the 0.618 Fib retracement level of the last move up from September 19th to 22nd. At the current time, BTCUSDLONGS/BTCUSDSHORTS are nearly balanced but both on quite a high level. BTCUSDSHORTS a bit higher, but nothing impressive. We just have to wait and see during the next couple of days how this develops and if we go up to the top of the lag again or if we break down from it. I'm still leaning SHORT, but I could consider a short-term LONG trade if price reverses at least to the 6.500 level and hold it. Very tight stop-loss, in any case, trading environment is wild without volume.
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