Short

Bitcoin: Last Leg of the Bear Market

Updated

BTC has put on an impressive rally from the November ’22 lows. (+105%)

Now, it looks like it’s about to start turning over again for what I believe is the leg of the bear market.

The Red Median Line set is drawn from major pivots: Dec ’17 high, Dec ’18 Low, and the Nov ’21 High.

I plotted a (yellow) minor fork on ’22-’23 price action to show a potential path to the major (red) Median Line.

Other Factors:
- RSI Bear Div
- Ichimoku Cloud Bearish
- VWAP from the highs holding resistance.
- Strong Dollar
- Continued bearish price moves in equities/risk assets

*Screenshots Below*

I’m expecting a final flush for BTC to approximately $9,000 - $10,000, or a 65% decline from the current price level.

This is also roughly in line with previous cycles.

2015 - 2018 Bull/Bear Cycle: (Bull Market High = 19.8K, Bear Market Low = 3.1K, 84.3% decline)

2018 - 2024 Bull/Bear Cycle: (High = SWB:69K, Low = X, 84.3% decline)

X = 10.8K = Low

Fat_Fat

Note

Weekly Ichimoku Cloud

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Weekly Bear Divergence

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Anchored VWAP from the ATH

Note

9/20/50/200 Weekly EMA Ribbon

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