BTC (Prj.2019.P04.E01).v2. At the MACRO Level
Updated
Continuing on from the previous post (version 2). Progress update
Summary:
Even though we have dropped a fair bit, at the Macro level we are still in the bullish zone, within the macro formation (channel)
Obviously this does not give much confidence for many people, including me....I'm way more bearish at this point and I will try to explain why.
a) We have observed on many occasions that price got rejected (on the weekly chart) anything above the 11500 range (have wicks as evidence).
b) The rejection area is the 0.618 fib level
c) Volume above this area historically is on the thin side
d) People are undecided which makes it bearish (of recent)
e) Too many people in the media were over bullish at the macro level
f) RSI on the weekly has not touched the area as I indicated since the parabolic run. Historically it has which requires defending so one would expect this time round
g) On the 3 Day chart, the blue line, 28 MA also indicated on many occasions like in the 2015-2017 run, to go over the price in the consolidation phase.
They tend to be much longer in time duration and if you compare, we have not gone that long as of yet (refer to previous post commentary)
h) The Weekly momentum indicators as per chart below, all indicate we are on the downward path, including the NVT.
Historically if we go below 150 on the NVT, it usually means a sharp drop.
i) CME 8500 - 8900 btc future contracts gap has yet to be filled and is likely to.
j) The 21 MA on the weekly also has never been tested
Having said all the above, the main reason I'm bearish is a hypothesis that makes a lot of sense to me by Francis (MarketSniper.com) who explained the following;
a) If you look at the chart, the majority of the volume traded historically (over 70%) and as of recent, it was below the 0.618 Fib Level.
Anything above this level, the volume traded is low, indicating the market or the buyers are not there (ready) yet.
b) BTC market trading volume has dropped significantly since the 14K hit. Above 20 Billion is acceptable but its ranged lately from 12 to 16 billion. Refer to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/
c) The lower support levels have not been tested at all since the parabolic trend
d) Based on Wykoff model, we should be in the distribution phase and accumulation phase is required much lower than were we are now
e) Francis has a theory that we are in a huge symmetric triangle as per the chart below.
Also from a previous post, I explained another theory about the 3 MA and their historical references on the 4 hrly chart.
For now, they are acting as resistance. Refer to previous post, link below.
previous post
Summary:
Even though we have dropped a fair bit, at the Macro level we are still in the bullish zone, within the macro formation (channel)
Obviously this does not give much confidence for many people, including me....I'm way more bearish at this point and I will try to explain why.
a) We have observed on many occasions that price got rejected (on the weekly chart) anything above the 11500 range (have wicks as evidence).
b) The rejection area is the 0.618 fib level
c) Volume above this area historically is on the thin side
d) People are undecided which makes it bearish (of recent)
e) Too many people in the media were over bullish at the macro level
f) RSI on the weekly has not touched the area as I indicated since the parabolic run. Historically it has which requires defending so one would expect this time round
g) On the 3 Day chart, the blue line, 28 MA also indicated on many occasions like in the 2015-2017 run, to go over the price in the consolidation phase.
They tend to be much longer in time duration and if you compare, we have not gone that long as of yet (refer to previous post commentary)
h) The Weekly momentum indicators as per chart below, all indicate we are on the downward path, including the NVT.
Historically if we go below 150 on the NVT, it usually means a sharp drop.
i) CME 8500 - 8900 btc future contracts gap has yet to be filled and is likely to.
j) The 21 MA on the weekly also has never been tested
Having said all the above, the main reason I'm bearish is a hypothesis that makes a lot of sense to me by Francis (MarketSniper.com) who explained the following;
a) If you look at the chart, the majority of the volume traded historically (over 70%) and as of recent, it was below the 0.618 Fib Level.
Anything above this level, the volume traded is low, indicating the market or the buyers are not there (ready) yet.
b) BTC market trading volume has dropped significantly since the 14K hit. Above 20 Billion is acceptable but its ranged lately from 12 to 16 billion. Refer to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/
c) The lower support levels have not been tested at all since the parabolic trend
d) Based on Wykoff model, we should be in the distribution phase and accumulation phase is required much lower than were we are now
e) Francis has a theory that we are in a huge symmetric triangle as per the chart below.
Also from a previous post, I explained another theory about the 3 MA and their historical references on the 4 hrly chart.
For now, they are acting as resistance. Refer to previous post, link below.
previous post
Note
Close up on the Stoch. indicator
Note
Trade closed: target reached
commentary was correct, bearish sentiments proven to be correct.
Discord: discord.com/invite/vb4hbP88vb (TradeToProspa)
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.