BTCUSD (SHORT): Navigating the Rising Wedge A Strategic Short
Updated
To tell you how much I was devastated when I posted my last idea and it did not play out.
I admit my mistakes and that's how we all grow. I am no perfect guy and I am just here to take time and look at the charts. Sometimes looking at it for too long makes everything a bit emotional. It reaches to the point where my own opinion are not being followed and had no time to update everyone. So... here it is...
In the intricate dance of supply and demand... Bitcoin currently presents a choreography that technical analysts might recognize as a rising wedge (that's the market sentiment now). This pattern typically heralds a bearish sentiment and is often seen as a precursor to a price descent. Here’s why the current formation could spell a retreat to the $31,000 region, strengthening the thesis for a potential short position:
1 The Rising Wedge Formation: Historically, the rising wedge is a bearish pattern formed by a price consolidation that results in a tightening range with a slight uptrend. This pattern indicates exhaustion in buying pressure and, upon completion, often leads to a sharp reversal to the downside.
2 Trading the Break: A classic approach suggests entering a short position after a clear and impulsive close below the lower trendline of the wedge. In our current BTCUSD scenario, this would indicate a rejection of higher prices and could validate the bearish outlook, eyeing the $34,800 level as an initial target.
3 Retest for Confirmation: A retest of the lower trendline post-breakout offers a second entry point. This method capitalizes on a smaller stop loss placement, providing a refined risk management strategy. An impulsive rejection after the retest would further confirm the bearish momentum.
4 The Upper Edge Strategy: My preferred method involves initiating a short near the upper trendline upon identification of a compelling sell signal. This offers an attractive entry point with a tight stop loss and a high potential reward, anticipating the inevitable downside breach.
Given the confluence of these strategies and the looming wedge pattern on Bitcoin’s chart, the outlook is tilted towards a bearish bias. The ideal short entry at the $34,100 level aligns with the upper trendline touch strategy, providing a compelling risk-reward scenario.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin’s dance with the rising wedge presents a compelling case for a strategic short. The confluence of the wedge's bearish implication with the outlined entry strategies fortifies our thesis of a retracement to $30,000, providing a prime opportunity for short-sellers to capitalize on the anticipated reversal.
Next Steps:
Monitor for a clear impulsive close below the lower trendline or a retest rejection. Be vigilant for sell signals near the upper trendline for an optimal short entry. Patience and precision in entry will be key to navigating the potential downturn.
I admit my mistakes and that's how we all grow. I am no perfect guy and I am just here to take time and look at the charts. Sometimes looking at it for too long makes everything a bit emotional. It reaches to the point where my own opinion are not being followed and had no time to update everyone. So... here it is...
In the intricate dance of supply and demand... Bitcoin currently presents a choreography that technical analysts might recognize as a rising wedge (that's the market sentiment now). This pattern typically heralds a bearish sentiment and is often seen as a precursor to a price descent. Here’s why the current formation could spell a retreat to the $31,000 region, strengthening the thesis for a potential short position:
1 The Rising Wedge Formation: Historically, the rising wedge is a bearish pattern formed by a price consolidation that results in a tightening range with a slight uptrend. This pattern indicates exhaustion in buying pressure and, upon completion, often leads to a sharp reversal to the downside.
2 Trading the Break: A classic approach suggests entering a short position after a clear and impulsive close below the lower trendline of the wedge. In our current BTCUSD scenario, this would indicate a rejection of higher prices and could validate the bearish outlook, eyeing the $34,800 level as an initial target.
3 Retest for Confirmation: A retest of the lower trendline post-breakout offers a second entry point. This method capitalizes on a smaller stop loss placement, providing a refined risk management strategy. An impulsive rejection after the retest would further confirm the bearish momentum.
4 The Upper Edge Strategy: My preferred method involves initiating a short near the upper trendline upon identification of a compelling sell signal. This offers an attractive entry point with a tight stop loss and a high potential reward, anticipating the inevitable downside breach.
Given the confluence of these strategies and the looming wedge pattern on Bitcoin’s chart, the outlook is tilted towards a bearish bias. The ideal short entry at the $34,100 level aligns with the upper trendline touch strategy, providing a compelling risk-reward scenario.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin’s dance with the rising wedge presents a compelling case for a strategic short. The confluence of the wedge's bearish implication with the outlined entry strategies fortifies our thesis of a retracement to $30,000, providing a prime opportunity for short-sellers to capitalize on the anticipated reversal.
Next Steps:
Monitor for a clear impulsive close below the lower trendline or a retest rejection. Be vigilant for sell signals near the upper trendline for an optimal short entry. Patience and precision in entry will be key to navigating the potential downturn.
Note
We can always trade how we always trade here on my tradingview channel. We can wait for a retrace on the breakout or near it then we can set the long where we started retracing, this is just in case that this is a fake break out and comeback for more painful red candle this coming mid november.Note
There you have it, FAKE BREAK OUT! This is gonna be more painful. Trust me.Heres the plan, I will release a new idea later 9 hrs from now, then I will tell myself how to get out of this market by not chasing the huge volume that is going on.
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