Okay Bitcoin, is it going to be 4200 or 5200?

Updated

It really looks like it has become time for a big upwards correction soon. The bears seem to have lost strength, their conviction seems to be gone the past week and when looking at certain factors, it seems like bulls are slowly peaking over the fence to if reinforcements have arrived on the other side of the war zone. These bulls are also starting to see these bears:
- who kept on fighting in the open field (obvious bear trend past month),
- are getting hungry (shorting at the lows)
- getting weaker (loosing strength to really push it down) because their food supplies are running dry

Some alts have been improving the past week as well, with a few that made a decent pump. Yesterday it looked like they were loosing strength but today they are making up for that now.. All we need to see is these alts breaking the weekend highs and make a decent push up. That would be a first confirmation that the (short term) trend might be shifting.

To really think we are at the start of a big upwards correction, this second wave (something i mentioned several times the past days), has to be bigger than the first one. For example, ETH' needs to make a jump above the the 95/100 (kraken price). XRP' for example above the 0.33.

Also the OI on Bitmex has been going up, something i kept mentioning the past days. Now it's very important for the bulls to keep this momentum going now. 3400/50 is a level but the 3600 is even bigger! Needs to see a convincing break of this 3600 level

It's already squeezing while i am writing this. Now it looks like i posting it after the fact :) But you can check my previous analysis

Previous analysis:

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Alts look good now, we need another wave in this one. Meaning a bull flag and another jump. If that happens, than things will look really good. OI only dropped 15 mil on this squeeze, so the bears are still not really scared enough. So another push is needed.

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4200 and 5200 are just random numbers, just trying to give indication of 4K or 5K prices, if this is really the big upwards correction

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Now we need to see good stable bull flags here. Bitmex and Bitfinex show noise with that drop, that is because both are leveraged trading, so stops got triggered pushing price even higher. So for the bull flag, better to look at the other exchanges

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Still looking good

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OI has gone up another 10 mil the past half hour or so. So there are still bears very confident. This is not good, unless of course the bulls show force and make another push up. I think we could see even an bigger squeeze than we had just now

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Think it's safe to post it now, since the move seems to have already started. But this was that fractal i talked about before the weekend.
As long as this current flag doesn't fail (since bears are still shorting this), this could work out. Now TA is no exact science of course, so how it will go i don't know.

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Now to be clear, before some get too excited, anything below the 3600 is still danger zone. So we really need to get above that resistance to be confident about a bigger upwards correction. Bears are still very clearly not giving up. So we need to see volume buying like we saw at the 6800 in July, just before that squeeze to 7400. The one i mentioned past weekend. Buying volume is so much for these whales back then, they could not stop/control it anymore and a 200 mil liquidation happened.

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Not liking this, seeing too much control of the bears still. We want to see the OI on Bitmex drop, because that means there are no new bears. In other words, selling pressure will be less.

Now this last push up and drop, is as i showed in my educational analysis.

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Getting a bit more stable now, so chance for bigger bull flag now.

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The first green zones should be the ones that have to hold for the bullish momentum. The second ones won't immediately mean that the up move is completely over, but IMO things will become 50/50 again.

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What we used to see in the good old times (i can't even remember it ;) ), we used to see alt coins make good bull flags and slowly ove higher while Bitcoin goes sideways.

So that would be the ideal situation for the coming hours.

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The wedge on Finex broke so we could see another push now. But my best guess is, not yet and probably make a bigger bull flag. Seen this pattern more often lately.

Still nog comfortable with those bears that keep shorting here. But on the other hand, more fuel for a squeeze upwards if the bulls decide to show force.

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This is what i mean, with alts moving up with a stable Bitcoin. If we keep this pace up the coming hours, things could be very good. With pace i don't mean just move up in a straight line. But small steps and stable consolidations

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Even if the current move up fails, there is a plan B. That smal inverse H&S i posted yesterday worked out eventually, after looking like the right shoulder was becoming too big. Anyway there is a potential for a bigger inverse H&S. So if the current move up fails, we could be making a right shoulder. The right shoulder should be smaller and shorter in time than the left shoulder.

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Please don't forget to give a like if you appreciate this :)

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About the inverse H&S, Bitfinex shows a different picture. It would mean we need to reach 3500.
About the current "bull flag", when judging the past week as the same trend, we can see that the current movement is different than the previous 2 highs. So we can see that the bulls are definitely pushing more than before. But with the OI that keeps increasing, bears still feel very comfortable to short these prices. I can think of 3 options.

1) bulls win, break the 3500/3600 and we see a very big short squeeze happen.
2) Bears win and te high is set and we drop again, at this point obviously not likely, a drop below 3370/80 would increase those chances a bit.
3) Bull taking a step back bot not giving up, making a drop towards 3300 and make a higher low.

No clear signs at the moment, i think the alts are looking quite good, seems like they want to make another jump up. So all this delay for Bitcoin, could be because alts are getting loaded up. Alts will be an important factor at this stage, we need to see bullish momentum.

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This last push is the smallest so far. Means momentum is dropping a bit. The highest green support has to hold to prevent a bigger correction of this rally.

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Like Freddie Mercury used to say, "under pressure" :)

If this was just a small pullback and we make another push up, i think the 3600 will break and we can say the short term bear trend is over (short term means past 2 weeks). I was afraid of the bears who keep shorting it, but this looks like the 6800 break of July. Bulls keep the pressure high, only giving away 20/40 points.

tradingview.com/chart/0VO9Y6xS/

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Could be that we are at this stage now. Suggest a bull flag for the rest of the day between 3500/3600 for another push. Would be great to touch the 3600ish first

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Seems these bulls just dont want to stop. Making another bull flag from the looks of it OI on Mex is finally dropping a bit, so some bears are slowly giving up, maybe. Just drop of 10 mil, so nothing big yet

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That last push up and down, looks very much alike my last educational post pattern

Bitcoin Whales And Their Bots Controlling The Market

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Looks like a bear flag now. For the bullish view, i think the 3380/3400 has to hold

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Alts are still decent, dropped a bit, but of course it's normal after a big rally we have seen today. Only when we see alts getting dumped big again, the bullish view is still possible.

Ideally we stay above the previous highs

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Just to make things clear, as mentioned several times the past days and today as well, the 3600ish is THE level to break. If we break that level, a (much) bigger correction is very likely. If we dont break it, than it could mean this drop is still not over.

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Looks like it has turned into a bullish wedge now. Showing the bulls are not gone yet?

This is becoming noise now. This is why having a plan upfront is important. I already had some doubts about that bear flag, because Bitfinex did not show a real bear flag, this wedge is showing us now why now.

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Thanks for the support everyone and the likes. Normally i always try to answer everyone, but has been a very long day already with little sleep the past days. I will try to answer you tomorrow.

Also the PM section here, i have a lot of messages. I will try to answer you this week

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Looks like the bulls are making an attempt to break up from this bull flag. Volume on the current move up is good, but a big road of resistance is there until the 3600. So it will be a big fight

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New Bitcoin analysis:

Okay Bitcoin, is it going to be 4200 or 5200? Part 2

botje11

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