Bitcoin
Updated

moment of truth

554
we've been talking about it for 3 months now, and here we are.

this is probably the most pivotal moment since we broke below the bull trendline in june. if this down trend line is confirmed, i'm thinking we'll see a longer period of consolidation within the current range ($30k-$40k).

if price breaks out above the trendline, the sky is the limit.

:popcorn:
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impressive pump for sure, but i'm not taking the bait. RSI divergences rarely lie...

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looking bearish to me on lower TF as well. but what the fuck do i know.

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if we draw the trendline precisely through the tops of the wicks (i chart on bitstamp because it has the most historical data), we have a perfect rejection/confirmation of the down trend.

i generally don't necessarily like using high/low values for trendlines because outliers will vary between exchanges, so statistically speaking they're not so relevant and can be misleading. but in this case, i don't think this is a coincidence.

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should also note that price has broken above the trendline on a linear scale. i'm curious if there have been studies of "breakout vs fakeout" probabilities on linear vs logarithmic scales. might be interesting to look into.

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