Hi everybody:
This is one possible count. BTC could be in last wave down to 6.0-5.7, and could be now bouncing in 4th subwave, with roof at 7.3 or maybe 7.8. I don't believe bear market is over because:
1. Volume is still super low.
2. RSI in 4h hour reaching overbought area
3. MACD in bull area but losing volume and in negative area
4. Important resistance at 7.4 and stronger at 7.8
After this bounce, we probably go to 6.0-5.7 where is so much support. I don't believe in going deeper at least in the next days. Likely, there will be a big bounce at this support level, in coincidence with ending 5 impulse bear elliott waves. Volume is going to be critical, because bears are losing volume in a big way since 22 DEC, but it's true that ther'es not big bull reaction to change the trend.
I am going to publish other possible counts. In the unlikely possibility that BTC beats 7.8 resistance, then BTC will face another hard one, 8.2.
This is one possible count. BTC could be in last wave down to 6.0-5.7, and could be now bouncing in 4th subwave, with roof at 7.3 or maybe 7.8. I don't believe bear market is over because:
1. Volume is still super low.
2. RSI in 4h hour reaching overbought area
3. MACD in bull area but losing volume and in negative area
4. Important resistance at 7.4 and stronger at 7.8
After this bounce, we probably go to 6.0-5.7 where is so much support. I don't believe in going deeper at least in the next days. Likely, there will be a big bounce at this support level, in coincidence with ending 5 impulse bear elliott waves. Volume is going to be critical, because bears are losing volume in a big way since 22 DEC, but it's true that ther'es not big bull reaction to change the trend.
I am going to publish other possible counts. In the unlikely possibility that BTC beats 7.8 resistance, then BTC will face another hard one, 8.2.
Note
LINK TO ALTERNATIVE COUNT Note
BULL OPTION (VERY UNLIKELY BUT...)Note
My análisis en español:He colgado mis tres posibles cuentas. Dos de ellas, desde mi punto de vista más probables, son cuentas bajistas.
En la primera interpreto que estamos en quinta onda, en cuarta subonda con techo en 7.3 o 7.8. Después de este rebote y con los datos que aparecen en RSI, MACD y volumen, no hay fuerza para superar 7.8 (con dificultad 7.3-7.4, pero posible). Después quinta subonda final a región 5.7-6-0 para terminar la onda bajista. Los bajistas están perdiendo clara fuerza, por lo que podría generarse ese suelo del mercado y a partir de ahí cambio de tendencia.
La segunda cuenta interpreto que estamos en tercera onda, cuarta subonda, mismo techo que en la previa, pero trás terminar la tercera onda en 5.7-6.0 y rebotar, aún restaría una quinta onda de desconocida profundidad, aunque lo estándar sería en el área 4-5K. cabe destacar que con la fuerza actual bajista, puede existir que la quinta onda fuera truncada y empezar el mercado alcista de nuevo en 5.7.
La tercera e improbable desde mi punto de vista, es la cuenta alcista, asumiendo 6.4 como doble suelo de mercado e iniciando la primera onda de impulso, atravesando la línea de tendencia bajista principal del 22 de Dic. Para ello, mucho tendría que cambiar el volumen, RSI y el MACD como indico en la gráfica
Gracias a todos, y espero que sirva de ayuda, como siempre, es sólo mi humilde opinión pero espero que sirva para reflexionar.
Note
We are following bear count, more logic count. One idea about RSI and ending bear market. I am waiting to buy the DIP!
Note
Second wave in our 5th wave.Note
4H RSI breaking higher lows, heading to 6k?
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.