Long

Bitcoin impulse wave

Updated

Why it is so hard to believe that Bitcoin next upward phase has started. The bearish advocators don't want to, those who have missed the 15K bottom don't want to, and many others too don't want to believe; I myself wanted Bitcoin to have another downtrend wave. It is most likely a mental trap. Anyway, Bitcoin (market) don't care how we feel, it proceeds as it should be.

If you have followed my analysis on Bitcoin correction, link below, updates were posted regularly. I will do the same for this idea post and update Bitcoin impulse waves analysis as they unfold.

Currently, it seems Bitcoin is in the 3rd impulse wave. Have to wait and see where this wave finishes.

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So It seems a minor downtrend channel was formed and Bitcoin started an impulse upward wave from the lower band. Let's see if Bitcoin can breaks this channel upward

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Here is the latest Bitcoin update. It seems an uptrend channel is formed. Let's see if the channel's lower band can support Bitcoin or not.

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So Bitcoin reacted to the intersection of the uptrend channel, horizontal support area, and the downtrend wedge pattern. Let's see if BTC can break the horizontal resistance area (blue) in front of it.

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So far, Bitcoin hasn't passed the 31K mark. If we look at the lower timeframe, it seems that a liquidity uptrend line has formed. It is possible that BTC breaks this line downward and a minor correction happens. Let's see what happens.

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Here is the latest Bitcoin technical analysis. As usual, there are two possible scenarios for Bitcoin's next movement. Let's see what happens.

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Following from the previous comment; it seems the second scenario is in play. Bitcoin price is ranging in a sideway channel. Also, notice there is a divergence in RSI which is a signal of possible correction. Let's see what happens.

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Bitcoin is still oscillating in this sideways channel.

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So, finally Bitcoin broke the sidway channel, downward. Let's see how BTC will react to the uptrend line.

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So, based on time analysis, the yellow rectangle area is where Bitcoin's current corrective wave could end. Although, first have to wait and see how Bitcoin will react to the uptrend line. Let's see what happens.

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So, as it turns out, Bitcoin did react to the uptrend line; went up and along with it almost the most of the altcoins. There is a minor-inverted wedge pattern that we have to wait and see how BTC will deal with its upper line. Let's see what happens.

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So, it is clear that Bitcoin tried to break the inverted wedge upper line two times, but couldn't. Now that BTC is descending, we have to wait and see if the uptrend line can support BTC again, if BTC will collect momentum to start another uptrend wave, or if the uptrend line will break. Let's see what happens.

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It seems the uptrend line is trying to support Bitcoin; if successful, an upward wave could start. And if this probable wave breaks the inverted wedge's upper line, it could continue to the upper line of the sideway channel, or even beyond. Let's see what happens.

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So, as it turns out, both the uptrend line and the inverted wedge's upper line are holding the Bitcoin in a triangular shaped zone; although not for a long time. If this zone broken in either upward or downward with momentum, we would see some movement. But if this zone breaks sideways with no momentum, there is going to be no significant movement, probably.

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So, Bitcoin finally broke the uptrend line and went down. However, the downtrend didn't start with momentum and big candles. There is a horizontal area on which Bitcoin bounced off several times. First, we have to see how Bitcoin will react to this area on its way down.

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Now that corrective wave happened, I think there could be two scenario for Bitcoin movements. The first case is the one I have been updating; that is the major waves 1 and 2 ended before and Bitcoin is currently in the major wave 3 in which the first minor corrective happened and possibly end in the yellow rectangle area.

The second scenario is that the major wave 1 just finished and Bitcoin currently in the corrective wave 2 which could unfold in a-b-c or double a-b-c. If this is the case, the corrective wave would be deeper and take longer.
Let's see what happens.

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So, the minor corrective wave b is trying to start. There is a horizontal resistance area that if Bitcoin break above it, a strong signal for the upward wave triggered. Let's see what happens.

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It seems Bitcoin is trying to break the ranging area in which it was oscillating. After Bitcoin made a downward stop-hunt wave, it started a strong upward wave. Let's see what happens.

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So, Bitcoin is still oscillating sideways. The previous upward wave that broke above the resistance horizontal area turned out to be another stop hunt/liquidating wave; shown in the blue circle, just like the downward one before that. Anyway, first we have to wait for BTC to break this sideways consolidation zone in either direction and make at least two HH and HL (or LL and LH) in order to get confirmation. Let's see what happens.

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So, Bitcoin finally broke the consolidation area in which it was oscillating. It is still soon to tell which of the two scenarios will play out; for this, we have to wait and see if Bitcoin can go through these resistance lines in front of it, or BTC would bounce off this area filled with lines and start another downward wave. Let's see what happens.

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So far, waves a and b completed, and now wave c is unfolding. If you read the previous comments, after wave c ends, it is possible to have wave X followed by another corrective a-b-c. In this case, Bitcoin correction will be deeper. Let's see what happens.

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So, Bitcoin correction pattern finally emerged; it seems a descending triangle/wedge pattern is forming. Have to wait and see if Bitcoin can break it upward. Then we have to see which of the two mentioned scenarios plays out: an upward X wave followed by another a-b-c, or Bitcoin would ascend to break the previous high. Let's see what happens.

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So, Bitcoin broke the descending triangle pattern and went up, but failed to break the major downtrend line. It seems Bitcoin is on its way to making another a-b-c pattern. Let's see what happens.

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If Bitcoin breaks the minor downtrend line, an impulse wave could start. Let's see what happens.

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So, Bitcoin broke the minor downtrend line, went up and touched the horizontal resistance line. It seems Bitcoin making a pullback on the broken line to continue move upward. Let's see what happens.

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Here is the update on 4H chart.

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So, after Bitcoin touched the horizontal area, it pulled back on the broken downtrend line. Then a major fake news about Bitcoin spot ETF fueled the already started uptrend wave. Bitcoin will most likely touch the major horizontal area (the Blue one) again. The real question is when Bitcoin can break this major horizontal area. Let's see what happens.

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If you followed my Bitcoin updates, in the Aug 19 comment two possible scenarios were presented, and it seems the second one is unfolding. Based on this scenario, the a-b waves of the current corrective wave have finished, and the final wave c remains to unfold.

Keep in mind that the probability of the first scenario happening is not zero. Since we could only see waves after they are unfolded.

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So, as it turns out, the first scenario was in play, and once again, Bitcoin blindsided most traders. Needless to say, wave 3 is unfolding.

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Since Bitcoin broke the major horizontal area (the blue one) and went up, it would most probably make a pullback on this area around 31K. This is a good chance for those who missed the train.

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So far, Bitcoin have not shown any strong signal of correction or pullback; BTC might break through the first horizontal resistance area in its path upward. Let's see what happens.

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Bitcoin is moving upward in an ascending channel.

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In order to anticipate Bitcoin's movements, one must analyze both Bitcoin's chart and Bitcoin's Dominance chart. As can be seen, Bitcoin's Dominance is going upward and there is an uptrend line. Bitcoin's next upward wave will most probably occur when Bitcoin's Dominance reaches this uptrend line. Let's see what happens.

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As can be seen, Bitcoin couldn't break the second minor horizontal area or the ascending channel. Also, a divergence is formed, so Bitcoin will either correct or move sideways. If the former happens, altcoins will also correct; if the latter happens, then altcoins will rise.

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So we see that Bitcoin came down and touched an important area: the intersection of the minor ascending channel and the major horizontal support area. Then started an upward wave. Let's see if Bitcoin can break the next horizontal resistance area or not.

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So it seems Bitcoin is slowly moving in an ascending wedge pattern. Earlier, Bitcoin came down, and the wedge's lower line acted as support again; as a result, Bitcoin started an upward wave. There going to be zigzag movements ahead; Bitcoin going to retest both upper and lower lines and support before deciding which direction to go. Let's see what happens.

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Bitcoin still couldn't, and it's trying to break the minor ascending line (yellow). The zigzag scenario is still valid. In any case, either Bitcoin breaks this line and goes up first, or it cannot and goes down. Let's see what happens.

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So, Bitcoin broke the minor ascending yellow line and went up. It seems there is a little more room for Bitcoin to go up; there will still be zigzag movements and then Bitcoin starts going up again. Let's see what happens.

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As said before, a divergence was forming, and now the divergence has expanded, and it seems a triple/series divergence is forming. So a correction is most likely to happen. Let's see what happens.

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Bitcoin couldn't break the 44.5K level for the second time, and another divergence has formed. Unless a great news or something else comes out to fuel Bitcoin, a correction is most probably going to happen. Let's see what happens.

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So, Bitcoin came down a little and now reached the minor uptrend line. If this line broken, further downward movement is anticipated. Let's see what happens.

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So, Bitcoin couldn't break the minor uptrend line, went up, and is now trying again. Let's see what happens.

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Something like this might play out. Let's see what happens.

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Bitcoin touched the major channel's upper line and the horizontal resistance area, with correction waves unfolding according to the previous analysis.

SaeedSalehinia

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by SaeedSalehinia

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