BTC USD short until Aprilish
Updated
On the chart, we have weekly-BTCUSD with the following indicators:
- BB: Bollinger Bands (which is basically 20 units moving averages +- the standard deviations of the same timeframe)
- HMA: Hull Moving Averages, which is basically a (simple, but clever), smoothed moving average
- K: Klinger simple (again quasi-centered) volume-based oscillator
- CCI: Commodity Channel Index is similar to BB (calculated based on moving average and standard deviation), but quasi-arbitrary-normalized into an oscillator).
Brief explanations to the indicators presented:
- BB helps to define an area where price will likely "pulse"
- Klinger helps to detect trend-changes (based on volume)
- CCI helps to detect a trend-change
- HMA helps to define the angle of the trend
Based on these values (high CCI mainly) and 2-dimensional areas and extended lines, I think, unless dramatical volume-change happens, trend remains bearish until CCI/BB reaches again low. So I expect a trend change on early April (maybe mid), and that is when I will consider opening an entry-position. BTC is 11k now, I think it might fall until 7k by early-April.
This is NOT a trading advise, just a biased idea of a non-pro. Calculate risk, use stops, avoid FOMO and have fun!
Tech-criticism welcome!
(4 Csa-Ga-Pe)
- BB: Bollinger Bands (which is basically 20 units moving averages +- the standard deviations of the same timeframe)
- HMA: Hull Moving Averages, which is basically a (simple, but clever), smoothed moving average
- K: Klinger simple (again quasi-centered) volume-based oscillator
- CCI: Commodity Channel Index is similar to BB (calculated based on moving average and standard deviation), but quasi-arbitrary-normalized into an oscillator).
Brief explanations to the indicators presented:
- BB helps to define an area where price will likely "pulse"
- Klinger helps to detect trend-changes (based on volume)
- CCI helps to detect a trend-change
- HMA helps to define the angle of the trend
Based on these values (high CCI mainly) and 2-dimensional areas and extended lines, I think, unless dramatical volume-change happens, trend remains bearish until CCI/BB reaches again low. So I expect a trend change on early April (maybe mid), and that is when I will consider opening an entry-position. BTC is 11k now, I think it might fall until 7k by early-April.
This is NOT a trading advise, just a biased idea of a non-pro. Calculate risk, use stops, avoid FOMO and have fun!
Tech-criticism welcome!
(4 Csa-Ga-Pe)
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