Bitcoin is currently trading below the 200 week ma. I didnt expect this to happen so quickly personally. But its what it is, seems like there is a lot of forced selling in the market from leveraged positions which got caught off guard. It shows that even low leverage has massive risk if the market goes down sharply in this case over 50% and especially when funds are locked longer term and it's collateral is droping in value.
As a spot trader the drawdown is horrible for me but at least dont face liquidation risk, I went through this in 2014 and 2018 already, emotionally its really tough but we need to stay rational in decision making.
In the past, bitcoin bottomed around the weekly ma200 but had wicks below it up to -30%.
The problem I see is that buyers prefer to dca in during bear markets and not buying large sums at once therefore there is maybe not enough liquidity on the buyside to buy up all the liquidations until its a nobrainer buy, which I dont know if it is already.
What I know is that bitcoin was designed to last forever, price will go up and down, there is no central bank to plunge protect or bail out anybody, only honest buyers which will step in at some point and then it will be a healthy market again. Usually bear markets bottom when everybody would like to buy but nobody really got cash left to buy. The big question is this now or will it be up to -30% below the weekly ma200?
I wish all my followers to survive this phase and keep around, tourist will leave crypto but those who stay will be rewarded. Important is to not lose it all but ideally come out with more btcs at the end of this bear market.