BTC Model 1: Longer Cycles = More Money
Updated
I believe that TA is only so useful without good research and a models to back it up. I have been investing in crypto since the 2012, when a stoner friend of mine convinced me that BTC was going to be the money of the future and an exponential growth asset. Stoned as he was, he was also a heck of a math wiz and I guess he saw the potential for this currency very early on. I bought in 5k @ ~$10. He told me don't sell till it hits 100k. I happily sold most of it at $100 right as it started going back down, excited and full of emotion. How those emotions changed in only a few months as I saw it shoot up 10 over 1k and never hit 100 dollars again....
This model is the result of learning the hard way the importance of patience, not trading on feelings, and having a plan.
I think this chart should speak for itself. The cycles are getting longer. Current price action is confirmation of this. This includes the halving cycle itself. It's not 4 years. It's not 3 years, 7 months, it's 210000 blocks. The time it takes to get there is a function of the rate of btc creation and how many machines are running and being added to the network. The second halving to the third halving took 6.91% longer than it did from between 1 and 2. This cycle will be important for determining what sort of variable we're really working with, but if we go from the implied growth rate of 6.91 we arrive at 1504 days till the next halving, 188 days more than the first halving. That's not exactly a small span of time, and plenty could happen within it.
Btc has really never went below the green trend line since the halving events started. No reason to think it will any time soon. We're still a ways off, well within range of what's expected for the mid cycle shake out. Regarding that shakeout concept, I've heard the idea that price remembers. Here on this chart you can see that play out. Very interesting where this shakeout started when you look at cycle 1, isn't it? I expect us to go up till around the 511 day mark past the halving, have another scary bump like this, and then finally ascend to the true top. This pattern will repeat and overlap until it invalidates itself and could last several halvings/decades and become very complex.
It should be noted that the only thing that took us out of the green wave was Covid, a global plague that killed tons of people. It also recovered quickly, in classic black swan fashion. I'd imagine that line is pretty safe, and that this slow bleed won't even touch it.
BTC is an asset that is capable of exponential growth. It has shown a multi phase structure in the past, and I suspect that structure will continue, and become more complex. We have seen wave 1 of 2, possibly 3. the 2016 halving cycle started to produce a third wave, though it never put in a new ATH with it. This time it will, and then produce a 4th smaller wave after that during the bear market. 100k-200k is the range I'm looking for the cycle top in. If you think the run is over, I'd suggest we haven't even gotten started. What we all just saw is what I call the attention wave, it hooks everyone back into the market and tells big money to start looking again. Then they shake out all the unprepared new guys and cowards, and push us into the parabolic phase, which only gets supported by everyone buying back into it. Sure, that rise we saw is technically parabolic... but... well.... just wait.
This model is the result of learning the hard way the importance of patience, not trading on feelings, and having a plan.
I think this chart should speak for itself. The cycles are getting longer. Current price action is confirmation of this. This includes the halving cycle itself. It's not 4 years. It's not 3 years, 7 months, it's 210000 blocks. The time it takes to get there is a function of the rate of btc creation and how many machines are running and being added to the network. The second halving to the third halving took 6.91% longer than it did from between 1 and 2. This cycle will be important for determining what sort of variable we're really working with, but if we go from the implied growth rate of 6.91 we arrive at 1504 days till the next halving, 188 days more than the first halving. That's not exactly a small span of time, and plenty could happen within it.
Btc has really never went below the green trend line since the halving events started. No reason to think it will any time soon. We're still a ways off, well within range of what's expected for the mid cycle shake out. Regarding that shakeout concept, I've heard the idea that price remembers. Here on this chart you can see that play out. Very interesting where this shakeout started when you look at cycle 1, isn't it? I expect us to go up till around the 511 day mark past the halving, have another scary bump like this, and then finally ascend to the true top. This pattern will repeat and overlap until it invalidates itself and could last several halvings/decades and become very complex.
It should be noted that the only thing that took us out of the green wave was Covid, a global plague that killed tons of people. It also recovered quickly, in classic black swan fashion. I'd imagine that line is pretty safe, and that this slow bleed won't even touch it.
BTC is an asset that is capable of exponential growth. It has shown a multi phase structure in the past, and I suspect that structure will continue, and become more complex. We have seen wave 1 of 2, possibly 3. the 2016 halving cycle started to produce a third wave, though it never put in a new ATH with it. This time it will, and then produce a 4th smaller wave after that during the bear market. 100k-200k is the range I'm looking for the cycle top in. If you think the run is over, I'd suggest we haven't even gotten started. What we all just saw is what I call the attention wave, it hooks everyone back into the market and tells big money to start looking again. Then they shake out all the unprepared new guys and cowards, and push us into the parabolic phase, which only gets supported by everyone buying back into it. Sure, that rise we saw is technically parabolic... but... well.... just wait.
Note
Um, small correction, regarding the top I said 100k-200k, but ~300k wouldn't be strange. Most projections I do put me around 256k, but I find numbers like that hard to accept, even though they are clearly predicted by BTC's overall trend. It's probably emotions telling me it can't be real lol.. I guess we've got some time to wait before we find out.If you're more curious about where we're going in the short/mid term, I drew the shakeout circle for the current cycle very specifically according to how long I think it will last, what the bottom is likley to be (though it could go a bit lower) and what direction it will break. I think we don't go much lower from here, we wont touch the previous ATH, Even though TA was indicating it for a while. Even that is cooling off now though.
Note
I have one final, related thought about this. A lot of people see a Head and Shoulders all over the place in crypto, and perhaps they aren't wrong to. Both previous bull runs had that general shape, and btc loves fractal patterns. Those of you suggesting that we are in a macro head and shoulders aren't wrong, but I would suggest to you that this whole thing is only the first shoulder. It is a fractal of the coming bigger pattern. Adjust your time frame a bit, consider it through the lens of longer cycles, and you'll see what I see too.
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