ADVICE FOR NEWBIES (SELF INCLUDED)
Updated
ADVICE FOR NEWBIES (SELF INCLUDED)
Do you dream that you shorted bitcoin when it was at 20K on Dec 17th and bought back in 6K on Feb 6th? Do you regret not getting out of ALTS in mid January or had more capital to put in for the ALT before bull rally? Do you fantasize that you put in 1K in BTC way back when and ended up being crypto millionaire by now? We've all been there.
I'm under the assumption that if you are reading this post it's cause you are relatively new to crypto and trading just like me. We all had massive gains during the end of the last year and saw our chip stack dwindle down in the past few months. We've been chasing rockets and trying to catch a falling knife. We were lucky a few times and got burn more often than naught. We came up with self excuses and told ourselves that this would be the last time we would make "that mistake" only to make a new found mistake. We keep looking for an edge.
The truth is that when we "win" we tell everyone and when we "lose", we keep that to ourselves privately. It's hard to see a coin that posted 30% profit in one day and not want to be part of the action. I mean how many times did you get into a coin only to sell early and watch that same coin run up? We've all been there.
We were were all super cautious when we started but after experiencing a real bull run, we started playing more wild and loose. Each time we were hoping for massive gains to offset our previous losses. It's easy to make money in a bull cycle; it's even harder to walk away from the table when you are ahead.
I'm going to start all over from the beginning and here's are the rules that I'm going to be trading with. I do believe in BTC and think we will have an ATH by the end of the year. I also believe there's more gains to be made ALTS than in BTC (and also more risk associated) IF you play it right.
*TRADING SCENARIOS
#1 When BTC pumps, it sucks the life out of ALTS.
#2 When BTC makes modest gain, it takes ALTS with it.
#3 When BTC corrects, ALTS fly.
#4 When BTC crashes, it drags ALTS with them.
*PORTFOLIO RATIO STRATEGY
A) BTC UP and ALTS DOWN (100% in BTC for a BTC PUMP)
B) ALTS UP and BTC DOWN (100% in ALTS for an ALT PUMP)
C) BTC UP and ALTS UP (50:50 BTC/ ALTS)
D) BTC DOWN and ALTS DOWN (100% FIAT)
**TECHNICAL ANALYSIS STRATEGY
1) TA will help with your limits but NEWS/FOMO/FUD are the catalyst for how your trades will perform. Before making a trade, do a quick news search for what's going on for that coin such as coinmarketcal website (coinmarketcal and not coinmarketcap).
2) I like using FIB levels, KUMO and trendlines. The main indicators I'm using are MACD and STOC RSI and sometimes RVI (Relative Volatility Index). *I like RVI instead of using Bollinger bands because it gives a number value for volatility)
3) What ever I'm looking feeling, see if I get the same confirmation on the daily, 4 hour, 1 hour, and 15 mins charts.
4) Set stop loss limits, target prices, and most importantly a time frame limit. Is it a trade that you are going to hold for a few days, months or a year).
5) If a coin is already popping, you missed the boat, don't get into it you might be too late to the part and will be left holding the bag.
and finally #6
6) Before you make a trade, have an idea where BTC is going.
And with that here is the chart that I have for BTC for the week.
--------------------------------------------------------------
BTC/USD - 4 HOURS
I honestly have no idea :)
Looking at the STOCH RSI and MACD we are falling/correct (just in time for the Sunday dip). We have a support at 7.4k for a pending correction which would keep this drive alive. Then we can work ourselves up to 9k resistance level. Cool off, retest and plan for the next resistance level of 10k. I'm also basing this off of KUMO.
The blue dotted line is the trend line channel from the ATH and the fail drive from 3/5/18 while the green dotted line is the support trend line starting from the bull bt
Do you dream that you shorted bitcoin when it was at 20K on Dec 17th and bought back in 6K on Feb 6th? Do you regret not getting out of ALTS in mid January or had more capital to put in for the ALT before bull rally? Do you fantasize that you put in 1K in BTC way back when and ended up being crypto millionaire by now? We've all been there.
I'm under the assumption that if you are reading this post it's cause you are relatively new to crypto and trading just like me. We all had massive gains during the end of the last year and saw our chip stack dwindle down in the past few months. We've been chasing rockets and trying to catch a falling knife. We were lucky a few times and got burn more often than naught. We came up with self excuses and told ourselves that this would be the last time we would make "that mistake" only to make a new found mistake. We keep looking for an edge.
The truth is that when we "win" we tell everyone and when we "lose", we keep that to ourselves privately. It's hard to see a coin that posted 30% profit in one day and not want to be part of the action. I mean how many times did you get into a coin only to sell early and watch that same coin run up? We've all been there.
We were were all super cautious when we started but after experiencing a real bull run, we started playing more wild and loose. Each time we were hoping for massive gains to offset our previous losses. It's easy to make money in a bull cycle; it's even harder to walk away from the table when you are ahead.
I'm going to start all over from the beginning and here's are the rules that I'm going to be trading with. I do believe in BTC and think we will have an ATH by the end of the year. I also believe there's more gains to be made ALTS than in BTC (and also more risk associated) IF you play it right.
*TRADING SCENARIOS
#1 When BTC pumps, it sucks the life out of ALTS.
#2 When BTC makes modest gain, it takes ALTS with it.
#3 When BTC corrects, ALTS fly.
#4 When BTC crashes, it drags ALTS with them.
*PORTFOLIO RATIO STRATEGY
A) BTC UP and ALTS DOWN (100% in BTC for a BTC PUMP)
B) ALTS UP and BTC DOWN (100% in ALTS for an ALT PUMP)
C) BTC UP and ALTS UP (50:50 BTC/ ALTS)
D) BTC DOWN and ALTS DOWN (100% FIAT)
**TECHNICAL ANALYSIS STRATEGY
1) TA will help with your limits but NEWS/FOMO/FUD are the catalyst for how your trades will perform. Before making a trade, do a quick news search for what's going on for that coin such as coinmarketcal website (coinmarketcal and not coinmarketcap).
2) I like using FIB levels, KUMO and trendlines. The main indicators I'm using are MACD and STOC RSI and sometimes RVI (Relative Volatility Index). *I like RVI instead of using Bollinger bands because it gives a number value for volatility)
3) What ever I'm looking feeling, see if I get the same confirmation on the daily, 4 hour, 1 hour, and 15 mins charts.
4) Set stop loss limits, target prices, and most importantly a time frame limit. Is it a trade that you are going to hold for a few days, months or a year).
5) If a coin is already popping, you missed the boat, don't get into it you might be too late to the part and will be left holding the bag.
and finally #6
6) Before you make a trade, have an idea where BTC is going.
And with that here is the chart that I have for BTC for the week.
--------------------------------------------------------------
BTC/USD - 4 HOURS
I honestly have no idea :)
Looking at the STOCH RSI and MACD we are falling/correct (just in time for the Sunday dip). We have a support at 7.4k for a pending correction which would keep this drive alive. Then we can work ourselves up to 9k resistance level. Cool off, retest and plan for the next resistance level of 10k. I'm also basing this off of KUMO.
The blue dotted line is the trend line channel from the ATH and the fail drive from 3/5/18 while the green dotted line is the support trend line starting from the bull bt
Note
We broke out of the blue downward trend channel and are above the green bullish support line. That's great news.In my last BTC post, I was ready to call for a crash on 4/9 to 6k to give us a double bottom at 6k before falling more to 4.97k to give us a FIB level of .118. I'm really only keeping track of BTC so I know what to do with ALTS. It was awesome (from a TA perspective) to see a triangle break out and up though. BTC suck out from ALTS was scary but ALTS rebounded quickly.
*FYI, I really like the FIB 0.118 retracement number. For all the graphs that I've seen of a "bubble chart" they always end at .118 before working themselves out of it. In my mind, I always think of that number as the absolute bottom.
Since most ALT already formed a cup pattern, I imagine BTC is going to work a handle pattern now which could explain the STOCH RSI and MACD downward indicators. After that we test 9k and 10k.
April 15th is almost upon us which is trending as the time when the overall market cap will start rising because of the US tax filing date (although before it was after mid FEB because of Chinese New Years). Feb 6th was Senate Banking Committee hearing that gave us a boost from falling. March 18th was the G20 meeting that would address crypto helped us. We still have a major conference due in June for when things are suppose to really pick up. There's alot of news driven events going on that helps ease and also cause a lot of the FUD and FOMO movements. A China or Korea ban/crackdown, liquidating shorts, Google/Twitter ad bans. etc etc. And we still have ETF to look forward to (which is how I imagine we will end the year (as Tom Lee predicts) at 25k.
As of now, we reached the bottom until that is it's no longer the bottom.
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*Disclaimer
1) This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. (blah blah blah)
2) I would really appreciate if you left a comment and some feedback if you like this post.
3) If you disagree with me, let me know what I'm overlooking. It's not about being right or wrong. It's more about creating a helpful and open discussion.
4) I like posting my ideas to keep myself accountable and try to get better about TA for myself. It's better than cycling through my different charts with constantly changing trading strategies.
4) If you are going to leave a troll type comment saying I'm wrong after the fact you can go John McAfee at a BTC at 1 million USD by the end of 2020.
Unicorn of the Sea
- Narwhal
Trade closed manually
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