Bitcoin 2024 (Scenario 2)
Bitcoin-2024-Scenario-1 Below
Let's talk about the thing nobody wants to talk about.
THE CME GAP AT 20k!
This CME gap is one of the largest Gaps in history.
Coming in at 20300 to 21200, it's a huge Gap.
I remember very clearly the herd saying the "GAP AT 18K WILL NEVER GET FILLED."
500 days later, what happened, the damn GAP gets filled. How many times do we need to fade this signal lol.
The fact is that every damn GAP this size gets filled at one point. Will this time be different? Are we going to play the "this time will be different" tune again lol.
There are a couple of charts that are screaming Black Swan.
ETH
Giant rising wedge pattern in ETH. A break of this wedge would be a massive move down!
XRP
XRP is repeating the same pattern it formed from 2014-2017. What happened at the end of the triangle? A massive shakeout!
USDT dominance Chart
Guys look at the channel. Do we need to question it? Even now at the 48k top, there was not a single candle close under the channel. I've been following it with my group week by week and nothing. The channel is still strong.
It is a fact that no BIG bull market or rally has started from the bottom of this channel, and until the dominance is back up to where this green circle is, the chances are this bull market will not start.
So how do we get the dominance up there and still hit 70k by December 2024? By using a black swan, that's how. My call is something big happens this year, another scare, Bank, War, Virus, anything to drive mass fear.
I can see it now, a crazy wick down to close the CME gap but weekly close above this macro support.
If this plays out, then XRP plays out its shakeout, ETH breaks its rising wedge, and USDT dominance goes back up to the top of the channel. It all fits.
If Bitcoin is at 20k and the USDT dominance is at the top of the channel, that's when I can say for sure that the bull market has started. Until then, I have doubt.
We can't even say with 100% certainty that the Bitcoin double bottom is even in!
Every cycle we retest and make a double macro bottom before the bull market starts, but this time it's not been so clear. Can we say that June and Nov of 2022 were the double bottom of this cycle with 100% certainty? I don't think so.
This is something I have been trying to figure out for months: IS THE DOUBLE BOTTOM IN OR NOT? How can we say that with a 20k CME GAP that if it would get filled, it would then form a macro double bottom on the Bitcoin chart.
This is my view on scenario 2. I would not have any longs open or collateral loans and have cash to buy if this scenario happens.
This is without a doubt the most dangerous unpredictable period of the Bitcoin cycle.
If nothing has happened by September, we are in the clear. Until then, protect yourself from risk.
My bet is Scenario 2 unfolds.
Let's talk about the thing nobody wants to talk about.
THE CME GAP AT 20k!
This CME gap is one of the largest Gaps in history.
Coming in at 20300 to 21200, it's a huge Gap.
I remember very clearly the herd saying the "GAP AT 18K WILL NEVER GET FILLED."
500 days later, what happened, the damn GAP gets filled. How many times do we need to fade this signal lol.
The fact is that every damn GAP this size gets filled at one point. Will this time be different? Are we going to play the "this time will be different" tune again lol.
There are a couple of charts that are screaming Black Swan.
ETH
Giant rising wedge pattern in ETH. A break of this wedge would be a massive move down!
XRP
XRP is repeating the same pattern it formed from 2014-2017. What happened at the end of the triangle? A massive shakeout!
USDT dominance Chart
Guys look at the channel. Do we need to question it? Even now at the 48k top, there was not a single candle close under the channel. I've been following it with my group week by week and nothing. The channel is still strong.
It is a fact that no BIG bull market or rally has started from the bottom of this channel, and until the dominance is back up to where this green circle is, the chances are this bull market will not start.
So how do we get the dominance up there and still hit 70k by December 2024? By using a black swan, that's how. My call is something big happens this year, another scare, Bank, War, Virus, anything to drive mass fear.
I can see it now, a crazy wick down to close the CME gap but weekly close above this macro support.
If this plays out, then XRP plays out its shakeout, ETH breaks its rising wedge, and USDT dominance goes back up to the top of the channel. It all fits.
If Bitcoin is at 20k and the USDT dominance is at the top of the channel, that's when I can say for sure that the bull market has started. Until then, I have doubt.
We can't even say with 100% certainty that the Bitcoin double bottom is even in!
Every cycle we retest and make a double macro bottom before the bull market starts, but this time it's not been so clear. Can we say that June and Nov of 2022 were the double bottom of this cycle with 100% certainty? I don't think so.
This is something I have been trying to figure out for months: IS THE DOUBLE BOTTOM IN OR NOT? How can we say that with a 20k CME GAP that if it would get filled, it would then form a macro double bottom on the Bitcoin chart.
This is my view on scenario 2. I would not have any longs open or collateral loans and have cash to buy if this scenario happens.
This is without a doubt the most dangerous unpredictable period of the Bitcoin cycle.
If nothing has happened by September, we are in the clear. Until then, protect yourself from risk.
My bet is Scenario 2 unfolds.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.