Counter-Swing or trend-reversal?
Updated
hard facts:
-> closed above the bearish channel
-> touched the 0.618 fibret from last local top (~10k) to low of 5.8k
-> retraced from there back to the bearish channel
-> still under SMA200
background information:
-> 61.8% is crucial when it comes to trend swings. A retracement over 61.8% is an indicator for a trend swing (bearish to bullish in this case), under 61.8% could be just a counter swing (so basically a correction in the bear market).
-> SMA200 is in important indicator. "The trend is your friend". Many traders/bots are trading by this, so when the chart is above or under SMA200, they buy or sell.
conclusion: closing significant above said 61.8% (~8400) and over SMA200 would be some strong bullish indicators. 'til then it's still possible that we're in this counter-swing.
my personal opinion: retracements after touching the fibonacci is quite normal, we consolidated at 38.2% and now retracing, so 1-2 red daily candles, maybe down to 50% fibret (~7900$) would be a normal retracement. If BTC then closing above said indicators, it's very likely to go to 10k area again.
No financial advice is given, just for educational purpose.
-> closed above the bearish channel
-> touched the 0.618 fibret from last local top (~10k) to low of 5.8k
-> retraced from there back to the bearish channel
-> still under SMA200
background information:
-> 61.8% is crucial when it comes to trend swings. A retracement over 61.8% is an indicator for a trend swing (bearish to bullish in this case), under 61.8% could be just a counter swing (so basically a correction in the bear market).
-> SMA200 is in important indicator. "The trend is your friend". Many traders/bots are trading by this, so when the chart is above or under SMA200, they buy or sell.
conclusion: closing significant above said 61.8% (~8400) and over SMA200 would be some strong bullish indicators. 'til then it's still possible that we're in this counter-swing.
my personal opinion: retracements after touching the fibonacci is quite normal, we consolidated at 38.2% and now retracing, so 1-2 red daily candles, maybe down to 50% fibret (~7900$) would be a normal retracement. If BTC then closing above said indicators, it's very likely to go to 10k area again.
No financial advice is given, just for educational purpose.
Trade active
BTC did that retracement to the 50% fibonacci (actually two times). The consolidation phase is ongoing and still legit: Breaking 8400 bullish breakout, going under 50% should result to a drop to the 38.2% fibonacci (6800).possible trade chance: use that consolidation between the two fibonacci to gain some solid percentage. With tight stop losses above and under those lines, anticyclic trades have a good profit/risk ratio.
Trade closed: stop reached
after breaking out bearish, the initial question has been answered: Bitcoin counter-swinged to the 61.8% fibonacci and is now preparing lower lows.
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