This is the scenario I’m believing in for the near term for 
BTCUSD .
One more leg down to confirm the neckline around 78,300 USD.
Quick reversal price action to retest the 92,300 USD (ish) level.
If the breakout takes place to the upside, then I think we will retest the previous highs, with a higher probability of going much higher. Although I believe the tariffs will have a big impact on the USD (DXY index), which I believe will have a strong effect on BTC for the near term, around the coming 6 months. So, I believe the new high will most likely come in Q4 this year, making this cycle different from the historic crypto cycles. Although, there is still a chance that other countries will start to adopt more crypto-friendly policies for crypto or Bitcoin, making this thesis more uncertain. If the policies come out as positive, then I think there are good chances of reaching new highs earlier than Q4, 2025.
BTCUSD .One more leg down to confirm the neckline around 78,300 USD.
Quick reversal price action to retest the 92,300 USD (ish) level.
If the breakout takes place to the upside, then I think we will retest the previous highs, with a higher probability of going much higher. Although I believe the tariffs will have a big impact on the USD (DXY index), which I believe will have a strong effect on BTC for the near term, around the coming 6 months. So, I believe the new high will most likely come in Q4 this year, making this cycle different from the historic crypto cycles. Although, there is still a chance that other countries will start to adopt more crypto-friendly policies for crypto or Bitcoin, making this thesis more uncertain. If the policies come out as positive, then I think there are good chances of reaching new highs earlier than Q4, 2025.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.