BITCOIN: HISTORICAL CYCLES AND HEALVING ROADMAP PART II
Updated
THIS CHART IS BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA
Let’s get to the chart.
Keeping in mind that this chart is based on Bitcoin at this time, it's quite important for the coin. Looking at historical prices, if we examine the first example, focusing on the first bit between the 2012 halving, the month before the halving was actually relatively neutral. We saw a slight uptick in the lead-up, once again following the next major market. If we look at the second example, we actually saw a major move to the upside within around one month of the Bitcoin halving, and then we experienced a short downturn before eventually continuing higher later in the market cycle. Then, looking at the 2020 halving example, of course, leading up to the halving, we had the global pandemic that crashed the market to the downside. However, we saw a major recovery one month before the halving. Following the halving, we actually saw some choppy sideways price action, essentially neutral action over the next month, and then we continued with the market much higher. Overall, in a very bullish time in the market right now, generally around the halving, we are usually trending in a bullish direction. Of course, we can see short-term bearish moves, but the larger trend is bullish. Additionally, we usually see a major market move in the process, at least over the next year after the Bitcoin halving.
Taking a look at the first example from the first Bitcoin to the ultimate market cycle, that was 370 days into the market top, exactly one year after the market. Looking at the second example, that was around 520 days after the Bitcoin halving to reach the market top. Then, looking at the third example, from the halving to the ultimate market top, that was around 540 days on average. From the actual Bitcoin halving to the next major market top, it takes around 450 to 500 days. Potentially, we could end up seeing the market topping out roughly around 2025, and then we could end up entering into the next market in the second half of 2025 because the next Bitcoin halving is likely to happen in early 2028. As you can clearly see on this chart, we usually end up seeing these markets occur right in the middle of these Bitcoin cycles. Simply based on history, this is the most likely outcome. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but the most likely outcome based on historical data is simply seeing the market over the next year somewhere in 2025.
This chart will likely help you make better trade decisions if you consider upvoting it. I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
Thank you.
Let’s get to the chart.
Keeping in mind that this chart is based on Bitcoin at this time, it's quite important for the coin. Looking at historical prices, if we examine the first example, focusing on the first bit between the 2012 halving, the month before the halving was actually relatively neutral. We saw a slight uptick in the lead-up, once again following the next major market. If we look at the second example, we actually saw a major move to the upside within around one month of the Bitcoin halving, and then we experienced a short downturn before eventually continuing higher later in the market cycle. Then, looking at the 2020 halving example, of course, leading up to the halving, we had the global pandemic that crashed the market to the downside. However, we saw a major recovery one month before the halving. Following the halving, we actually saw some choppy sideways price action, essentially neutral action over the next month, and then we continued with the market much higher. Overall, in a very bullish time in the market right now, generally around the halving, we are usually trending in a bullish direction. Of course, we can see short-term bearish moves, but the larger trend is bullish. Additionally, we usually see a major market move in the process, at least over the next year after the Bitcoin halving.
Taking a look at the first example from the first Bitcoin to the ultimate market cycle, that was 370 days into the market top, exactly one year after the market. Looking at the second example, that was around 520 days after the Bitcoin halving to reach the market top. Then, looking at the third example, from the halving to the ultimate market top, that was around 540 days on average. From the actual Bitcoin halving to the next major market top, it takes around 450 to 500 days. Potentially, we could end up seeing the market topping out roughly around 2025, and then we could end up entering into the next market in the second half of 2025 because the next Bitcoin halving is likely to happen in early 2028. As you can clearly see on this chart, we usually end up seeing these markets occur right in the middle of these Bitcoin cycles. Simply based on history, this is the most likely outcome. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but the most likely outcome based on historical data is simply seeing the market over the next year somewhere in 2025.
This chart will likely help you make better trade decisions if you consider upvoting it. I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
Thank you.
Note
Taking a quick look at the Bitcoin liquidation map, we can still see a massive amount of liquidity to the upside. Just recently, we did take out a small amount of liquidity to the downside, but as of right now, we simply have more liquid levels to the upside compared to the downside. First of all, we have a major area of liquidity between 67.3K to 67.5K, which basically means billions of dollars in short positions will get liquidated once the price crosses above 67,500. On top of that, we also have a significant area of liquidity around 71,500, with even more liquidity at around 73,000. Honestly, it’s only a matter of time until the price of Bitcoin is very likely going to move towards those higher levels of liquidity to simply take out those levels and liquidate those positions sitting at those levels. As we can see from past patterns, the price usually moves towards the most liquidity to take out those positions.#DYOR #NFA
Note
#Bitcoin monthly candle is closing in 2 days and is retesting the previous all-time highs! 👀
#Crypto
Note
#Bitcoin liquidation heatmap indicates that while there's still liquidity to the downside around 62,000, there's substantial liquidity to the upside. The primary liquidity levels reside approximately between 67,300 and 67,500. On broader time frames, even more liquidity is evident around 71,500 and 73,000. Bitcoin tends to gravitate towards areas of high liquidity, implying a potential upward movement in the future.
#Crypto
BTC 
BTCUSDT BTCUSDNote
Funding rates across exchanges currently hover around the 0.01% mark, indicating a neutral stance in the market sentiment.
Neutral funding rates suggest a balance between long and short positions, with neither dominating the market.
When funding rates dip below 0.01%, it signals an increase in short interest, with fewer traders inclined to take long positions.
Negative funding rates imply that short positions incur fees paid to long positions, potentially discouraging short positions.
Sub-neutral or negative funding rates are viewed as contrarian signals, prompting short position holders to reconsider and potentially close their positions.
This can lead to a short squeeze, where short sellers rush to cover their positions, further driving up prices.
A healthy bullish market trend is indicated by funding rates below neutral, with the potential for short squeezes to reinforce upward price movements.
Excessively high funding rates above neutral may indicate an overheated market, potentially signaling a risk of a correction or bearish sentiment.
#Crypto
Note
#Bitcoin most possible scenario, IMO.What are your views on this chart?
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