BitcoinLong
The Case For $100000 Bitcoin By 2024 Halving
Updated
The time is 57 days before the 2024 bitcoin halving. Give or take a day or so.
The bitcoin price is $52000. Give or take a few hundred dollars.
The Elliott Wave Principle is the most accurate and meaningful description of market dynamics. Elliott called it “Nature’s Law.”
The bitcoin market has unambiguously completed two waves, wave one and wave two, in an impressive rally since September 2023 from c. $25000 to $49000. In January 2024 it restarted that rally at $38500 after a well served and needed correction in wave three, reaching almost $53000 at its current year high.
The Elliott Wave Principle teaches us that a model Elliott wave has a third wave of the length (logarithmic price gain) of 161.8% in many or most cases, or even 200%, 261.8%, and more, of the size of wave one, all common Fibonacci relationships. These values are often met in the market with stunning precision.
The presented chart simply applies common, even minimal, relationships to the bitcoin market.
Given the current trajectory of the market, and the precision and reliability of Nature’s Law, it is inevitable that the bitcoin price will be in the vicinity of one hundred thousand US dollars, as shown, or higher, around the date of April 17.
If achieved, the bears even get their ‘major market dump’, or whatever their expression is, right after the end of the third wave. That will be the correction in wave four. I hope they realize now that it also is a consequence of the market structure, and has nothing much to do with the halving per se, as is repeated so often. It had never anything to do with news or events. Corrections are a consequence of market success, internal progress. The halving drives the entire market, yes, but it has done so since November 2022, when the four year cycle repeated.
The bitcoin price is $52000. Give or take a few hundred dollars.
The Elliott Wave Principle is the most accurate and meaningful description of market dynamics. Elliott called it “Nature’s Law.”
The bitcoin market has unambiguously completed two waves, wave one and wave two, in an impressive rally since September 2023 from c. $25000 to $49000. In January 2024 it restarted that rally at $38500 after a well served and needed correction in wave three, reaching almost $53000 at its current year high.
The Elliott Wave Principle teaches us that a model Elliott wave has a third wave of the length (logarithmic price gain) of 161.8% in many or most cases, or even 200%, 261.8%, and more, of the size of wave one, all common Fibonacci relationships. These values are often met in the market with stunning precision.
The presented chart simply applies common, even minimal, relationships to the bitcoin market.
Given the current trajectory of the market, and the precision and reliability of Nature’s Law, it is inevitable that the bitcoin price will be in the vicinity of one hundred thousand US dollars, as shown, or higher, around the date of April 17.
If achieved, the bears even get their ‘major market dump’, or whatever their expression is, right after the end of the third wave. That will be the correction in wave four. I hope they realize now that it also is a consequence of the market structure, and has nothing much to do with the halving per se, as is repeated so often. It had never anything to do with news or events. Corrections are a consequence of market success, internal progress. The halving drives the entire market, yes, but it has done so since November 2022, when the four year cycle repeated.
Note
Progress seems very good toward this prognosis at almost 55000 with February almost complete. At this pace the market should have a new ATH some time in mid -March.Note
The market remains perfectly on course for this outcome.Note
I haven’t updated this topic for some time, but here we go.Basically all there is to state is that bitcoin is well along toward the goal of achieving a price of USD 100000 on or by day of halving. And with “well along” I mean precisely on time, as the market’s current trajectory crosses that event in that time frame.
This is illustrated in the current chart of the market top, after having established price discovery after breaking the 2021 all-time high.
Note
In a larger view, this should convince the sceptics too.Note
Before replicating the 2021 ATH at 69000 USD, the market had convenient target zones for trading, given by the previous liquidity zones. This provided levels to which prices would often advance in sharp vertical spikes. Now, in price discovery, these zones no longer exist. Therefor, we may expect price action to be ruled more often by Fibonnaci relationships established from the market trajectory established during this bull market. In particular, I view Fibonnaci trend channels important.Indeed this is again shown in this chart.
This chart suggests gradual advancement in price inside a narrow trading channel. Indeed this is all that is required to reach the price of 100000 dollars for one bitcoin by the date of halving around April 18.
We should expect the price action of the last few days to continue, that is small improvements in the high price and corrections of comparable sizes to maintain the channel.
Note
The price of 100000 dollars is indicated by an intersection of several lines of Fibonnaci resistance. It does not necessarily indicate a high point in price, but could potentially mark the end of the currently running third wave, as some considerable psychological resistance may be expected at this historically momentous level.Note
In this last chart, the anchor points for the Fibonacci channels are chosen to replicate the slope of the ascend better, over a longer span, than in my lead chart for this topic. This clearly emphasizes the trend better. Does the market actually care either way? The market is a multi-dimensional structure, and this is just a 2D slice.Note
In any event…. The detail charts are highly suggestive that the Fibonnaci channels are obeyed by the traders, even if not conciously.tradingview.com/x/BUlLm0bw.
Note
Will Bitcoin achieve this? The trajectory is perfectly on target. But buyers decide.
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