BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/11/2019)
Good morning, traders. Demand continued to flow into the pair over the weekend with supply attempting to assert itself yesterday. Up looks much more likely than down, in the near term at least. The D1 chart shows price sitting on the daily pivot after being rejected around the 50% retracement of the December 15th low to the December 24th high, but we could see it retreat as far as the 38.2% level before heading up. The target for the break of the green descending wedge is around the 61.8% retracement, as shown, which is also the descending channel's resistance. Currently, price is printing a pennant/flag, and if that breaks bullishly then the target would be the 78.6% retracement based on the height of the flagpole. This takes price through the descending channel's and symmetrical triangle's resistances leaving targets of the R4 pivot around $4380-$4420 and upper supply zone around $5200, respectively. However, in reaching this latter target, price would necessarily move bullishly out of the large descending wedge which has been printing since the ATH and signal a target of $14,000+. Be aware that absolutely none of that is guaranteed. What we are looking at is pattern-based targets that only become active once price leaves the pattern. Traders should be watching the previous swing highs at all times because a failure of price to close above them signals weakness.
H1 RSI appears to have found a bottom, so traders should be watching for a push through its resistance. Price's move through its own resistance should have it targeting the top of the local TR and flag/pennant resistance. As shown, a bullish push through that resistance should set a target near the top of the descending channel at around $3780. So we have multiple targets based on multiple TFs and patterns for traders to choose from depending on what TF they are able to trade and their level of risk aversion. Obviously, a breakdown of price below the local TR support should have traders cautious about a possible move to the bottom of the flag/EQ of the large descending channel. Failure of that area to support price opens up a possible move to the bottom of the descending channel.
D3 RSI is sitting bearish at 40, and has been ranging for almost two months, but another strong move up would rectify that for the bulls. Last week's W1 candle printed strong bullish engulfing as well as tweezer bottoms, which should signal further upward momentum. Weekly RSI is sitting at 36.5 and, like the D3 RSI, has been ranging for almost two months but is nearing its descending channel resistance. Looking objectively at the W1 chart, it appears that an accumulation TR may be developing with an expected move toward $4300-$4400 which aligns with the D1 descending channel's pattern target. Failure of price to continue upward from there, through the ATH resistance line would signal an expected move back to the bottom of the TR to print an ST in Phase B as I have discussed previously in multiple daily live streams. However, based on the structure of the larger patterns and the current TR, if it is accumulation and price follows this path back down then it becomes increasingly likely that traders may not see the Spring they all are waiting on. Rather, the pair could just print an LPS due to significant demand in the $3000-$3500 area. If so, then we could realistically see price above $6000 by the end of Q2. A February close above $3693.85 would print the first higher monthly close since July 2018 (which is the only higher monthly close we've seen since the ATH).
All this being as it is, there is also the chance that we could see a continued move up into the 6000s from where price currently sits as well. Accumulation doesn't just happen horizontally, though most of the time that is the case. So be careful of anyone promising you that price MUST do something particular. If you think you are going to "catch the bottom," be realistic and understand that there is very little chance of you doing so (and if you do it will result from luck, rather than skill). Understanding what is happening with price action and committing to buying near the bottom will be a lot more effective in the long run, but that also means that you most cannot jump in with 50%-100% leverage. The fact is, you will not get rich overnight and the more you attempt to do so the more likely you are to lose everything.
Of course price could also always head lower, beyond the 2018 low, as well. While this seems increasingly unlikely, the potential for it to do so remains as long as price sits below $6500. A close below the daily S1 pivot, especially on the D3 chart, is what I would be watching for in regards to a possible move down and resumption of accumulation below $3000. Otherwise, any price move below that level, especially after a move up to $4300 first, would most likely be nothing more than the ST and Spring which indicates a move back up to the top of the blue TR in both cases.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
H1 RSI appears to have found a bottom, so traders should be watching for a push through its resistance. Price's move through its own resistance should have it targeting the top of the local TR and flag/pennant resistance. As shown, a bullish push through that resistance should set a target near the top of the descending channel at around $3780. So we have multiple targets based on multiple TFs and patterns for traders to choose from depending on what TF they are able to trade and their level of risk aversion. Obviously, a breakdown of price below the local TR support should have traders cautious about a possible move to the bottom of the flag/EQ of the large descending channel. Failure of that area to support price opens up a possible move to the bottom of the descending channel.
D3 RSI is sitting bearish at 40, and has been ranging for almost two months, but another strong move up would rectify that for the bulls. Last week's W1 candle printed strong bullish engulfing as well as tweezer bottoms, which should signal further upward momentum. Weekly RSI is sitting at 36.5 and, like the D3 RSI, has been ranging for almost two months but is nearing its descending channel resistance. Looking objectively at the W1 chart, it appears that an accumulation TR may be developing with an expected move toward $4300-$4400 which aligns with the D1 descending channel's pattern target. Failure of price to continue upward from there, through the ATH resistance line would signal an expected move back to the bottom of the TR to print an ST in Phase B as I have discussed previously in multiple daily live streams. However, based on the structure of the larger patterns and the current TR, if it is accumulation and price follows this path back down then it becomes increasingly likely that traders may not see the Spring they all are waiting on. Rather, the pair could just print an LPS due to significant demand in the $3000-$3500 area. If so, then we could realistically see price above $6000 by the end of Q2. A February close above $3693.85 would print the first higher monthly close since July 2018 (which is the only higher monthly close we've seen since the ATH).
All this being as it is, there is also the chance that we could see a continued move up into the 6000s from where price currently sits as well. Accumulation doesn't just happen horizontally, though most of the time that is the case. So be careful of anyone promising you that price MUST do something particular. If you think you are going to "catch the bottom," be realistic and understand that there is very little chance of you doing so (and if you do it will result from luck, rather than skill). Understanding what is happening with price action and committing to buying near the bottom will be a lot more effective in the long run, but that also means that you most cannot jump in with 50%-100% leverage. The fact is, you will not get rich overnight and the more you attempt to do so the more likely you are to lose everything.
Of course price could also always head lower, beyond the 2018 low, as well. While this seems increasingly unlikely, the potential for it to do so remains as long as price sits below $6500. A close below the daily S1 pivot, especially on the D3 chart, is what I would be watching for in regards to a possible move down and resumption of accumulation below $3000. Otherwise, any price move below that level, especially after a move up to $4300 first, would most likely be nothing more than the ST and Spring which indicates a move back up to the top of the blue TR in both cases.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
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