PriceTime Concept in Fractal Analysis
I continue to receive numerous questions about recommended reading, which has left me no other option than pay my debt to the society by elaborating a little more on the unconventional analysis I frequently perform using Fibonacci Channels. Alongside with theoretical insights I'll provide my key inspirations.
The Misbehavior of Markets - Mechanics of Chaos
Benoit Mandelbrot, one of the most extraordinary minds of the 20th century, launched a full rebellion against traditional finance in his book, “The Misbehavior of Markets”. In it, he introduced his groundbreaking “10 Heresies”, a direct challenge to the core assumptions and principles underpinning mainstream financial theories. Mandelbrot’s insights expose how conventional models fail to account for the complexity, unpredictability, and turbulence that define real-world markets.
10 Heresies:
Mandelbrot's ideas answered why markets behave the way they do, rather than relying on surface-level analysis. It was definitely more convincing than any traditional TA material that had not much information on cause-effect mechanisms that reveal the deeper structural relationship within price movements.
Fortunately, long before becoming acquainted with Mandelbrot’s take on markets, I had already developed my own perspective, thanks to the experiments I conducted right here on TradingView years back. My work perfectly aligned with his vision that acknowledges complexity, extreme events, irregularities and the interconnectedness of historic data.
Concept of Relativity
I got another inspiration from reading a story about the most pivotal breakthroughs in Albert Einstein’s intellectual journey, leading directly to his formulation of the theory of relativity that later on forever changed the world. His thought experiment revealed the strange and counterintuitive nature of time when viewed from different frames of reference.
As Einstein imagined himself racing alongside a beam of light, he realized that from his perspective on the bus, as it was moving away from clocktower, the clock would appear frozen because the light carrying the image of the clock’s moving hands would no longer reach him. This insight, combined with his deep understanding of the constancy of the speed of light, led him to question the absolute nature of time and space.
The culmination of this “storm” in his mind was the realization that time is not universal; it is relative to the observer’s motion. This revolutionary idea, published in his 1905 paper on special relativity, fundamentally changed our understanding of the universe, introducing concepts like time dilation and the interdependence of time and space—a unified spacetime.
Einstein’s ability to visualize such extraordinary scenarios highlights the power of thought experiments in scientific discovery. It was not only the mathematics but also his imagination that allowed him to redefine our understanding of reality.
PriceTime Model via Fibonacci Channels
After being able to visualize and somehow digest the complexity behind mathematical model of relativity, I returned to Mandelbrot's book to read more about his stance on time itself.
I mean who am I to disagree with a professor... Moreover, it really begins to look like Price and Time are connected similarly to the concept of SpaceTime.
Given that the psychology of the masses is inherently sensitive to the golden ratio, I was inspired to create a unified graphical framework that interconnects price dynamics, enabling navigation through the complexities of ever-evolving financial markets. By directly measuring trend angles within significant cycles, I realized that the chart’s complexity could essentially simulate itself. I incorporate psychological levels (via Fibonacci ratios) into my analysis, acknowledging how emotions shape market behavior. By embedding these emotional drivers into fractal structures, I align with Mandelbrot’s understanding of the market as a blend of human psychology and mathematical order.
This led to the discovery that Fibonacci ratios influence not only the price axis but also the time axis, unveiling a deeper fractal harmony in market behavior. The way mass (or energy) curves the spacetime fabric to explain the behavior of objects in physics is strikingly similar to how historic price movements (a manifestation of energy) shape the pricetime fabric, revealing the fractal cyclicality inherent in financial markets.
My work builds on Mandelbrot’s groundbreaking theories by turning his insights into practical tools. By combining his principles of self-similarity, chaos, and complexity with innovations like Fibonacci-based fractal mapping and trend directionality, I offer a fresh perspective on market behavior. This approach personally helps me to navigate the complexity of financial markets, staying true to Mandelbrot’s legacy while pushing the boundaries of fractal analysis.
My motivation for staying on TradingView and analyzing charts transcended being money-driven. I could no longer see markets the same way. I broke free from the rat race and devoted my life to studying charts as a reflection of reality, aiming to uncover the intrinsic rhythm that truly drives price fluctuations.
That realization inspired me to prioritize structure-based prediction over blind forecasts driven by subjective narratives, which are often flawed at their core. Sadly, great minds like Benoit Mandelbrot are no longer with us, but it is our responsibility as TradingView users to carry forward their work, treating it as our own mission to honor their legacy.
The bottom line is that we should not confine ourselves to the literature of Technical or Fundamental Analysis alone. Instead, we must draw insights from any field, using diverse methods and approaches, to develop a robust probabilistic framework for anticipating future price movements.
The Misbehavior of Markets - Mechanics of Chaos
Benoit Mandelbrot, one of the most extraordinary minds of the 20th century, launched a full rebellion against traditional finance in his book, “The Misbehavior of Markets”. In it, he introduced his groundbreaking “10 Heresies”, a direct challenge to the core assumptions and principles underpinning mainstream financial theories. Mandelbrot’s insights expose how conventional models fail to account for the complexity, unpredictability, and turbulence that define real-world markets.
10 Heresies:
- Markets Are Wild, Not Tame
Traditional View: Markets follow predictable, Gaussian-based models with mild fluctuations.
Mandelbrot’s View: Markets exhibit “wild randomness” with extreme, sudden changes that far exceed the predictions of Gaussian distributions.
Heresy: Risk management and pricing models underestimate the likelihood of extreme events. - Financial Variance Is Infinite
Traditional View: Variance (a measure of risk) is finite and calculable using standard tools.
Mandelbrot’s View: In fractal finance, price movements can have infinite variance due to heavy tails in the distribution of returns.
Heresy: Risk cannot be fully measured or predicted using current methods. - Markets Have Memory
Traditional View: Markets are “memoryless,” meaning past price movements do not influence future ones (random walk hypothesis).
Mandelbrot’s View: Markets exhibit long-term memory and dependence, where past trends and events affect current behavior.
Heresy: Independence of price changes is a myth. - Markets Are Multifractal
Traditional View: Price movements are linear and follow simple Brownian motion.
Mandelbrot’s View: Markets are multifractal, with different scaling behaviors across timeframes, and cannot be reduced to linear equations.
Heresy: Linear models cannot capture market complexity. - Time in Markets Is Variable
Traditional View: Time in markets flows at a constant rate, making it possible to analyze data at fixed intervals.
Mandelbrot’s View: Market time is irregular and subjective, accelerating during high activity (volatility clusters) and slowing during calm periods.
Heresy: Time is not constant in financial analysis. - Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks
Traditional View: Prices move randomly and independently, forming a normal distribution.
Mandelbrot’s View: Prices are influenced by patterns, memory, and clustering, resulting in heavy-tailed distributions.
Heresy: Random walk theory oversimplifies market dynamics. - Markets Are Non-Efficient
Traditional View: The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggests that all available information is reflected in prices, leaving no room for inefficiencies.
Mandelbrot’s View: Markets are often irrational and exhibit inefficiencies driven by emotions, memory, and fractal structures.
Heresy: Perfect market efficiency is an illusion. - Risk Is Not Symmetrical
Traditional View: Risk is modeled symmetrically, assuming equal likelihood of positive and negative deviations.
Mandelbrot’s View: Downside risks are more extreme and frequent, leading to asymmetry in market behavior.
Heresy: Risk models that assume symmetry are dangerously flawed. - Models Need to Embrace Chaos
Traditional View: Financial models aim for order and predictability, relying on simplified assumptions.
Mandelbrot’s View: Markets are chaotic and unpredictable but exhibit fractal structures that can provide insights.
Heresy: Chaos should be embraced, not ignored, in modeling markets. - Forecasting Is Fundamentally Limited
Traditional View: With enough data and sophisticated models, market behavior can be forecasted with high accuracy.
Mandelbrot’s View: Forecasting is inherently uncertain due to the wild randomness and complex nature of markets.
Heresy: Precise prediction of market movements is a fool’s errand.
Mandelbrot's ideas answered why markets behave the way they do, rather than relying on surface-level analysis. It was definitely more convincing than any traditional TA material that had not much information on cause-effect mechanisms that reveal the deeper structural relationship within price movements.
Fortunately, long before becoming acquainted with Mandelbrot’s take on markets, I had already developed my own perspective, thanks to the experiments I conducted right here on TradingView years back. My work perfectly aligned with his vision that acknowledges complexity, extreme events, irregularities and the interconnectedness of historic data.
Concept of Relativity
I got another inspiration from reading a story about the most pivotal breakthroughs in Albert Einstein’s intellectual journey, leading directly to his formulation of the theory of relativity that later on forever changed the world. His thought experiment revealed the strange and counterintuitive nature of time when viewed from different frames of reference.
As Einstein imagined himself racing alongside a beam of light, he realized that from his perspective on the bus, as it was moving away from clocktower, the clock would appear frozen because the light carrying the image of the clock’s moving hands would no longer reach him. This insight, combined with his deep understanding of the constancy of the speed of light, led him to question the absolute nature of time and space.
The culmination of this “storm” in his mind was the realization that time is not universal; it is relative to the observer’s motion. This revolutionary idea, published in his 1905 paper on special relativity, fundamentally changed our understanding of the universe, introducing concepts like time dilation and the interdependence of time and space—a unified spacetime.
Einstein’s ability to visualize such extraordinary scenarios highlights the power of thought experiments in scientific discovery. It was not only the mathematics but also his imagination that allowed him to redefine our understanding of reality.
PriceTime Model via Fibonacci Channels
After being able to visualize and somehow digest the complexity behind mathematical model of relativity, I returned to Mandelbrot's book to read more about his stance on time itself.
"Price is a function of trading time, which in turn is a function of clock time" - B. Mandelbrot
I mean who am I to disagree with a professor... Moreover, it really begins to look like Price and Time are connected similarly to the concept of SpaceTime.
Given that the psychology of the masses is inherently sensitive to the golden ratio, I was inspired to create a unified graphical framework that interconnects price dynamics, enabling navigation through the complexities of ever-evolving financial markets. By directly measuring trend angles within significant cycles, I realized that the chart’s complexity could essentially simulate itself. I incorporate psychological levels (via Fibonacci ratios) into my analysis, acknowledging how emotions shape market behavior. By embedding these emotional drivers into fractal structures, I align with Mandelbrot’s understanding of the market as a blend of human psychology and mathematical order.
This led to the discovery that Fibonacci ratios influence not only the price axis but also the time axis, unveiling a deeper fractal harmony in market behavior. The way mass (or energy) curves the spacetime fabric to explain the behavior of objects in physics is strikingly similar to how historic price movements (a manifestation of energy) shape the pricetime fabric, revealing the fractal cyclicality inherent in financial markets.
My work builds on Mandelbrot’s groundbreaking theories by turning his insights into practical tools. By combining his principles of self-similarity, chaos, and complexity with innovations like Fibonacci-based fractal mapping and trend directionality, I offer a fresh perspective on market behavior. This approach personally helps me to navigate the complexity of financial markets, staying true to Mandelbrot’s legacy while pushing the boundaries of fractal analysis.
My motivation for staying on TradingView and analyzing charts transcended being money-driven. I could no longer see markets the same way. I broke free from the rat race and devoted my life to studying charts as a reflection of reality, aiming to uncover the intrinsic rhythm that truly drives price fluctuations.
That realization inspired me to prioritize structure-based prediction over blind forecasts driven by subjective narratives, which are often flawed at their core. Sadly, great minds like Benoit Mandelbrot are no longer with us, but it is our responsibility as TradingView users to carry forward their work, treating it as our own mission to honor their legacy.
The bottom line is that we should not confine ourselves to the literature of Technical or Fundamental Analysis alone. Instead, we must draw insights from any field, using diverse methods and approaches, to develop a robust probabilistic framework for anticipating future price movements.
Unlock exclusive tools: fractlab.com
ᴀʟʟ ᴄᴏɴᴛᴇɴᴛ ᴘʀᴏᴠɪᴅᴇᴅ ʙʏ ꜰʀᴀᴄᴛʟᴀʙ ɪꜱ ɪɴᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ɪɴꜰᴏʀᴍᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴀɴᴅ ᴇᴅᴜᴄᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴘᴜʀᴘᴏꜱᴇꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ.
ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ɪꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ɪɴᴅɪᴄᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴏꜰ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ.
ᴀʟʟ ᴄᴏɴᴛᴇɴᴛ ᴘʀᴏᴠɪᴅᴇᴅ ʙʏ ꜰʀᴀᴄᴛʟᴀʙ ɪꜱ ɪɴᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ɪɴꜰᴏʀᴍᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴀɴᴅ ᴇᴅᴜᴄᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴘᴜʀᴘᴏꜱᴇꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ.
ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ɪꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ɪɴᴅɪᴄᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴏꜰ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Unlock exclusive tools: fractlab.com
ᴀʟʟ ᴄᴏɴᴛᴇɴᴛ ᴘʀᴏᴠɪᴅᴇᴅ ʙʏ ꜰʀᴀᴄᴛʟᴀʙ ɪꜱ ɪɴᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ɪɴꜰᴏʀᴍᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴀɴᴅ ᴇᴅᴜᴄᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴘᴜʀᴘᴏꜱᴇꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ.
ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ɪꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ɪɴᴅɪᴄᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴏꜰ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ.
ᴀʟʟ ᴄᴏɴᴛᴇɴᴛ ᴘʀᴏᴠɪᴅᴇᴅ ʙʏ ꜰʀᴀᴄᴛʟᴀʙ ɪꜱ ɪɴᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ɪɴꜰᴏʀᴍᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴀɴᴅ ᴇᴅᴜᴄᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴘᴜʀᴘᴏꜱᴇꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ.
ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ɪꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ɪɴᴅɪᴄᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴏꜰ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.