Infected! A possible path for Bitcoin
Updated
As of right now, my attached 2020 prediction is en route. We did not make new lows, and are now 40% above the bottom.
This is a zoomed-in abstract theory with specific focus on the Corona virus situation and how Bitcoin COULD react.
At time of publication, the Corona virus has killed 260 people with over 12,000 infected. I believe in the following weeks we see an explosion in the numbers. Hundreds of thousands at least... rumours, wechat talk from contacts I have in china paint a bleak picture. The actions of western nations are the most alarming for me though.
Australia has just announced it is not taking any arrivals from China outside of citizens and permanent residents, joining multiple other countries in doing so. I highly suspect, even in the best case scenario, this safety-first type of action will continue, dramatically creating an economic demand shortage globally. The markets have been starting to react, but now appear to be gaining speed. I'm NOT calling for a full on doom, but just trying to get a read on the macro psychology of the world at the moment.
Do I believe Bitcoin is an asset in doom time scenarios? actually no I don't. However, at least in the immediate term, it is.
Technically it's primed - 40% off the lows, 6 month bear channel broken etc.,
Fundamentally it's primed - Basically all, but specifically asian currencies getting rekt in value v USD, the halvening narrative, and most importantly the VIRUS.
It's just a perfect storm for a monster irrational and premature PUMP.
To the point, I put my pre halvening pump to 9900 levels, but I think we could hit as high as 15k in the next 28 days. After that, I expect some narratives come to a close, the virus infection rate peters off/ vaccine found etc., and we highly likely flesh out a 5k range for the rest of 2020 before ATH's in 2021 or end of this year.
IF in the unlikely event the virus is still growing at a linear rate in March, well good luck. I hope you've watched enough zombie films to prepare for the collapse ;)
This is a zoomed-in abstract theory with specific focus on the Corona virus situation and how Bitcoin COULD react.
At time of publication, the Corona virus has killed 260 people with over 12,000 infected. I believe in the following weeks we see an explosion in the numbers. Hundreds of thousands at least... rumours, wechat talk from contacts I have in china paint a bleak picture. The actions of western nations are the most alarming for me though.
Australia has just announced it is not taking any arrivals from China outside of citizens and permanent residents, joining multiple other countries in doing so. I highly suspect, even in the best case scenario, this safety-first type of action will continue, dramatically creating an economic demand shortage globally. The markets have been starting to react, but now appear to be gaining speed. I'm NOT calling for a full on doom, but just trying to get a read on the macro psychology of the world at the moment.
Do I believe Bitcoin is an asset in doom time scenarios? actually no I don't. However, at least in the immediate term, it is.
Technically it's primed - 40% off the lows, 6 month bear channel broken etc.,
Fundamentally it's primed - Basically all, but specifically asian currencies getting rekt in value v USD, the halvening narrative, and most importantly the VIRUS.
It's just a perfect storm for a monster irrational and premature PUMP.
To the point, I put my pre halvening pump to 9900 levels, but I think we could hit as high as 15k in the next 28 days. After that, I expect some narratives come to a close, the virus infection rate peters off/ vaccine found etc., and we highly likely flesh out a 5k range for the rest of 2020 before ATH's in 2021 or end of this year.
IF in the unlikely event the virus is still growing at a linear rate in March, well good luck. I hope you've watched enough zombie films to prepare for the collapse ;)
Note
This wild theory needs some fuel on the fire within the next 48 hours or likely invalidated.Trade active
Possible melt up imminent.Trade active
I still think there is a chance of this narrative completing. Painting a nice bearish picture/ shorts rising/ c virus cases melting up in countries outside of china... Let's see. 25% chance imo.
Note
Even after the big sell off, I still believe there is a chance this plays out. A CHANCE. This was always just a theory to see if the corn could be a safe haven in a collapse/ panic scenario. It was always more likely it would burn like any other investment. The virus is now accepted as a big deal, and the perfect narrative to bring the whole house of cards crashing down. Good luck.
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