Bitcoin Short Term Analysis
Updated
There is a rising wedge forming within a larger bear flag and we are coming up against a VERY important downtrend level that was formed all the way from the peak at 20k.
This makes me lean to the bearish side, but the volume is so weak, a big order either way can tip the scales.
This is, however, hallmark of bear flags. Volume dries up, resets before another strong volume push to break the bulls.
The bulls really need to push the price above $6700 as it would be the first break of the down trend we've seen.
Next, we can also see that there is also resistance around $6800, the .618 fib, where we saw it get sold off twice in the past two weeks.
A break down from the rising wedge would have supports around $6351 and $6150-$6200 and finally at the swing low of $5700-$5800 and if we completely break out of the potential bear flag on strong volume, a potential target could be $5680. (These can also be targets for a short if we break to the downside.
The volume is so weak right now and the volatility is so low that it looks like it could move either way with 1 or 2 big orders.
Shorts and Longs are about 50/50 on Bitfinex as well with no dominant trend showing up.
RSI gave us a swing high failure on September 28th when the price climbed, but the RSI couldn't break 70, which is typically a bearish sign as well
tradingview.com/x/VprCksho/.
I will open a short with a break of $6500 and more with a break of $6400 and open a long with a break of $6700 and more with a break of $6800.
Either way, I think we will see a massive move in the coming days. We may see one move down to take out the long stop losses before our move up.
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Stay tuned for my long term Bitcoin analysis that I'll be publishing in the next day or two where I show my thoughts on why I think we may see a run to $52,000. :)
This makes me lean to the bearish side, but the volume is so weak, a big order either way can tip the scales.
This is, however, hallmark of bear flags. Volume dries up, resets before another strong volume push to break the bulls.
The bulls really need to push the price above $6700 as it would be the first break of the down trend we've seen.
Next, we can also see that there is also resistance around $6800, the .618 fib, where we saw it get sold off twice in the past two weeks.
A break down from the rising wedge would have supports around $6351 and $6150-$6200 and finally at the swing low of $5700-$5800 and if we completely break out of the potential bear flag on strong volume, a potential target could be $5680. (These can also be targets for a short if we break to the downside.
The volume is so weak right now and the volatility is so low that it looks like it could move either way with 1 or 2 big orders.
Shorts and Longs are about 50/50 on Bitfinex as well with no dominant trend showing up.
RSI gave us a swing high failure on September 28th when the price climbed, but the RSI couldn't break 70, which is typically a bearish sign as well
tradingview.com/x/VprCksho/.
I will open a short with a break of $6500 and more with a break of $6400 and open a long with a break of $6700 and more with a break of $6800.
Either way, I think we will see a massive move in the coming days. We may see one move down to take out the long stop losses before our move up.
--------------------------------------------
Stay tuned for my long term Bitcoin analysis that I'll be publishing in the next day or two where I show my thoughts on why I think we may see a run to $52,000. :)
Note
Broke the rising wedge and was rejected on a retest to climb back into support.Volume is still very weak.
Expecting a big move within a couple of days.
tradingview.com/chart/6dHL5q3n/
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