BTC is currently retesting the area is made the first big break from.
If we reject from here, it's usually pretty easy to map out the next important levels, since we generally trade down to the 2.20 fib of the failed rally. Around 40,000 in this instance.
This is a real make or break point for BTC. If we see a rejection here, then there's a strong chance this is a change in the overall prevailing trend and start of a long drawn out bear trend.
Conversely, if we can rally through, then things look far more optimistic.
But this would be the obvious risk spot for bulls and the high value betting area for bears.
Strong odds an important decision is made here.
If we reject from here, it's usually pretty easy to map out the next important levels, since we generally trade down to the 2.20 fib of the failed rally. Around 40,000 in this instance.
This is a real make or break point for BTC. If we see a rejection here, then there's a strong chance this is a change in the overall prevailing trend and start of a long drawn out bear trend.
Conversely, if we can rally through, then things look far more optimistic.
But this would be the obvious risk spot for bulls and the high value betting area for bears.
Strong odds an important decision is made here.
Note
Someone recently told me based on my bearish BTC forecast I "Hate people". Which isn't true, I love fib patterns and like people enough to share things I find useful.
But it made me think how the Bitcoin bull forecast really isn't a great one for most people- is it?
Basically, the bet is a failure of the whole economic system and all the assets people had before being worthless and then them being priced out of the limited new currency.
It's basically just keeping the same wealth disparity issue people rally against - but it's okay now because it benefits them and it's just lots of other people who are screwed.
People who didn't know the tech or were for some reason not able/willing to accept 70 - 90% downswings in their money so they didn't buy it.
Sucks to be them. They can wash our lambos.
It's like the Animal Farm version of currency.
Note
A deflationary currency which was, by design, hoarded by those who accumulated it at prices far lower relative to the later price ... would not be "Serving the people". It'd be about the worst thing that could happen for most people.
Worse than the slow burn of inflation. They'd not have to worry about their savings devaluing- they'd have no money.
Note
Honestly, it's an ill thought out concept. Soon as the idea of hoarding became a thing, the viability of BTC as anything other than a speculation thing just died.
Note
It was a good idea. It's a shame it was made into a bubble rather than used as a good idea. Note
>>It's basically just keeping the same wealth disparity issue people rally against - but it's okay now because it benefits them and it's just lots of other people who are screwed.But I suppose as they love to say, "Have fun staying poor".
==
The bull's phrases tell you everything you need to know about the bubble attitude.
Note
In fairness, I don't think most of the BTC bulls understand the depth of the inflation/deflation subject. They've been told why inflation is bad. And it makes you angry because the banks are pricks. Which is all well and good.
But inflation means your money buys less and deflation means there's less money.
Neither of these suit the average person - but of them, inflation is better.
Because rich people get the new money (at full value) and knowing it will devalue they swap it for something else. Fuelling the economy. So people end up with money, it's just not as good as it was when those above had it.
But if the price is everything is going to get lower (deflation), they just keep the money.
They "Hodl" their USDs because they think they can exchange them for more of what they want in the future. And this leads to a deflationary bust where most people have no money at all - and scream for inflation.
Deflation has a very bad track record any time it's happened. A currency aiming to have increasingly deflation over time (capped and supply getting lost in various ways) would probably mean most people starved to death unless something was done to reverse it. It'd be that bad.
It's not something that would benefit "The People". Just some people. Like the current system.
Note
Shorts on now. 
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.