⊢
⟁ BTC/USD – Bitstamp – (CHART: 1M) – (June 18, 2025).
⟐ Analysis Price: $104,044.00
⊢
⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (1M):
▦ EMA90 – ($39,909.00):
∴ Rising steadily, serving as long-cycle structural support since 2020;
∴ Price remains well above this average, with no signs of downward pressure;
∴ The positive slope confirms ongoing bullish macro structure.
✴️ Conclusion: EMA90 holds the foundational base of the long-term uptrend with ample buffer.
⊢
▦ SMA50 – ($48,924.00):
∴ Key axis of mid-to-long-term structure, validated by multiple touches during 2022–2023;
∴ Current price distance suggests technical room for retracement;
∴ Still rising with no sign of flattening or decay.
✴️ Conclusion: SMA50 confirms trend integrity, though overextension calls for caution.
⊢
▦ Ichimoku (Kumo & Lines) – (85,434 | 68,378 | 104,044 | 76,906 | 63,740):
∴ Price remains well above the Kumo cloud – full bullish confirmation;
∴ Tenkan and Kijun are aligned in bullish configuration, widely spread;
∴ Future cloud projects bullish momentum continuation.
✴️ Conclusion: Complete Ichimoku structure signals dominant cycle strength.
⊢
▦ MACD (12,26,9) – (2,344 | 16,426 | 14,083):
∴ MACD line remains above the signal, maintaining a monthly buy signal;
∴ Histogram shows mild expansion, but slower than previous bull cycles;
∴ Momentum is positive but decelerating.
✴️ Conclusion: Momentum remains intact, but peak cycle force may have passed.
⊢
▦ RSI (14) – (68.82 | MA: 67.35):
∴ RSI approaching overbought threshold, hovering near 70;
∴ Momentum is firm but shows resistance to further extension;
∴ Historical comparison to 2020 suggests possible ignition or exhaustion point.
✴️ Conclusion: RSI signals potential tension zone - breakout or reversal ahead.
⊢
▦ VPT (14,8) – (100):
∴ Volume Price Trend has plateaued at its max threshold;
∴ Lack of new highs despite price advance suggests fading directional volume;
∴ Often a signal of accumulation slowdown or redistribution.
✴️ Conclusion: Buyer strength may be waning beneath the surface.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle:
∴ Market structure remains bullish across all core indicators;
∴ Overextension from key moving averages and flattening momentum call for tactical caution;
∴ Any macroeconomic pressure could trigger a local top, without compromising the broader trend.
⊢
∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant):
▦ Realized Price & LTH – ($47,000):
∴ Market price is well above the realized price baseline;
∴ Indicates majority of holders are in profit — structurally bullish;
∴ However, this also creates a risk of profit-taking if confidence drops.
✴️ Conclusion: Strong support floor, but latent pressure exists.
⊢
▦ SOPR - (Spent Output Profit Ratio) – (1.013):
∴ Above 1 means active profit-taking;
∴ Downward slope shows this is starting to cool;
∴ Critical to monitor for a break below 1 - would shift dynamic.
✴️ Conclusion: Still healthy, but at the edge of distribution risk.
⊢
▦ NUPL – (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) - (0.554):
∴ Unrealized profit remains dominant;
∴ Readings above 0.5 historically precede consolidation or pullbacks;
∴ Still distant from euphoric tops, but entering alert zone.
✴️ Conclusion: Market still in profit expansion phase - but under surveillance.
⊢
▦ MVRV - (STH vs LTH) – (STH: 1.0 | LTH: 3.1 | Global: 2.2):
∴ STH neutral, LTH moderately elevated but not excessive;
∴ Market is mature, but not overheated;
∴ Still in a zone that supports further upside with restraint.
✴️ Conclusion: Healthy balance between holders - no imminent top confirmed.
⊢
▦ CME Futures Open Interest:
∴ Sharp rise in open interest across expiry horizons;
∴ Sign of speculative leverage building;
∴ Historically correlates with volatile price action post-FOMC or macro events.
✴️ Conclusion: Liquidity pressure is rising - extreme caution warranted.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle:
∴ On-chain structure mirrors technical signals - strong trend, but cautious undertone;
∴ No major signs of reversal, but profit saturation could act as gravity if macro shocks occur;
∴ Market is exposed, not exhausted.
⊢
⧉ III. Contextvs Macro–Geopoliticvs – Interflux Economicus:
▦ Fed Chair Powell (Upcoming):
∴ Powell speaks today (June 18); core expectation is rate hold;
∴ Market bracing for hawkish tone: fewer projected cuts and emphasis on inflation resilience;
∴ Historically, Bitcoin has reacted with -2% to -5% dips to hawkish FOMC tone.
✴️ Conclusion: Macro tension peak. Powell’s tone may dictate the next 30-day candle.
⊢
⚜️ 𝟙⟠ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis!
⚖️ Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy.
⊢
⊢
⌘ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note:
∴ The technicals are strong, the on-chain base is stable, and the macro setup is explosive;
∴ This is a tension point, not a resolution point - silence before decision;
∴ Precision now is not found in action, but in observation.
⊢
⌘ Market Status:
✴️ Position: "Cautiously Bullish."
✴️ Tactical Mode: Observation Priority – No immediate entry without Powell clarity.
⊢
⟁ BTC/USD – Bitstamp – (CHART: 1M) – (June 18, 2025).
⟐ Analysis Price: $104,044.00
⊢
⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (1M):
▦ EMA90 – ($39,909.00):
∴ Rising steadily, serving as long-cycle structural support since 2020;
∴ Price remains well above this average, with no signs of downward pressure;
∴ The positive slope confirms ongoing bullish macro structure.
✴️ Conclusion: EMA90 holds the foundational base of the long-term uptrend with ample buffer.
⊢
▦ SMA50 – ($48,924.00):
∴ Key axis of mid-to-long-term structure, validated by multiple touches during 2022–2023;
∴ Current price distance suggests technical room for retracement;
∴ Still rising with no sign of flattening or decay.
✴️ Conclusion: SMA50 confirms trend integrity, though overextension calls for caution.
⊢
▦ Ichimoku (Kumo & Lines) – (85,434 | 68,378 | 104,044 | 76,906 | 63,740):
∴ Price remains well above the Kumo cloud – full bullish confirmation;
∴ Tenkan and Kijun are aligned in bullish configuration, widely spread;
∴ Future cloud projects bullish momentum continuation.
✴️ Conclusion: Complete Ichimoku structure signals dominant cycle strength.
⊢
▦ MACD (12,26,9) – (2,344 | 16,426 | 14,083):
∴ MACD line remains above the signal, maintaining a monthly buy signal;
∴ Histogram shows mild expansion, but slower than previous bull cycles;
∴ Momentum is positive but decelerating.
✴️ Conclusion: Momentum remains intact, but peak cycle force may have passed.
⊢
▦ RSI (14) – (68.82 | MA: 67.35):
∴ RSI approaching overbought threshold, hovering near 70;
∴ Momentum is firm but shows resistance to further extension;
∴ Historical comparison to 2020 suggests possible ignition or exhaustion point.
✴️ Conclusion: RSI signals potential tension zone - breakout or reversal ahead.
⊢
▦ VPT (14,8) – (100):
∴ Volume Price Trend has plateaued at its max threshold;
∴ Lack of new highs despite price advance suggests fading directional volume;
∴ Often a signal of accumulation slowdown or redistribution.
✴️ Conclusion: Buyer strength may be waning beneath the surface.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle:
∴ Market structure remains bullish across all core indicators;
∴ Overextension from key moving averages and flattening momentum call for tactical caution;
∴ Any macroeconomic pressure could trigger a local top, without compromising the broader trend.
⊢
∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant):
▦ Realized Price & LTH – ($47,000):
∴ Market price is well above the realized price baseline;
∴ Indicates majority of holders are in profit — structurally bullish;
∴ However, this also creates a risk of profit-taking if confidence drops.
✴️ Conclusion: Strong support floor, but latent pressure exists.
⊢
▦ SOPR - (Spent Output Profit Ratio) – (1.013):
∴ Above 1 means active profit-taking;
∴ Downward slope shows this is starting to cool;
∴ Critical to monitor for a break below 1 - would shift dynamic.
✴️ Conclusion: Still healthy, but at the edge of distribution risk.
⊢
▦ NUPL – (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) - (0.554):
∴ Unrealized profit remains dominant;
∴ Readings above 0.5 historically precede consolidation or pullbacks;
∴ Still distant from euphoric tops, but entering alert zone.
✴️ Conclusion: Market still in profit expansion phase - but under surveillance.
⊢
▦ MVRV - (STH vs LTH) – (STH: 1.0 | LTH: 3.1 | Global: 2.2):
∴ STH neutral, LTH moderately elevated but not excessive;
∴ Market is mature, but not overheated;
∴ Still in a zone that supports further upside with restraint.
✴️ Conclusion: Healthy balance between holders - no imminent top confirmed.
⊢
▦ CME Futures Open Interest:
∴ Sharp rise in open interest across expiry horizons;
∴ Sign of speculative leverage building;
∴ Historically correlates with volatile price action post-FOMC or macro events.
✴️ Conclusion: Liquidity pressure is rising - extreme caution warranted.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle:
∴ On-chain structure mirrors technical signals - strong trend, but cautious undertone;
∴ No major signs of reversal, but profit saturation could act as gravity if macro shocks occur;
∴ Market is exposed, not exhausted.
⊢
⧉ III. Contextvs Macro–Geopoliticvs – Interflux Economicus:
▦ Fed Chair Powell (Upcoming):
∴ Powell speaks today (June 18); core expectation is rate hold;
∴ Market bracing for hawkish tone: fewer projected cuts and emphasis on inflation resilience;
∴ Historically, Bitcoin has reacted with -2% to -5% dips to hawkish FOMC tone.
✴️ Conclusion: Macro tension peak. Powell’s tone may dictate the next 30-day candle.
⊢
⚜️ 𝟙⟠ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis!
⚖️ Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy.
⊢
⊢
⌘ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note:
∴ The technicals are strong, the on-chain base is stable, and the macro setup is explosive;
∴ This is a tension point, not a resolution point - silence before decision;
∴ Precision now is not found in action, but in observation.
⊢
⌘ Market Status:
✴️ Position: "Cautiously Bullish."
✴️ Tactical Mode: Observation Priority – No immediate entry without Powell clarity.
⊢
Note
⊢⧉ Powell’s Statements – Fed Decision (June 18, 2025).
∴ The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, between 4.25% and 4.50%, for the fourth consecutive meeting.
∴ Powell emphasized a data-dependent stance, stating that future decisions will be guided by evolving economic indicators - particularly inflation, the labor market, and geopolitical risks.
∴ The Fed Chair warned about the effects of tensions in the Middle East and potential trade tariffs - notably with China - classifying them as material risks to price stability and economic growth.
The revised dot plot indicates only one rate cut expected in 2025, down from two previously projected - in other words, the tone of the speech was hawkish.
⊢
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.