BTCUSD worrisome situation & possible bull trap
Updated
Two observations & guesses:
1. If all "coins" follow the movement of Bitcoin exactly, there's much less reason to have hundred of these coins on the exchanges. The market will remain immature & weak until at least one or two coins can move independently in times of high volatility. The current situation is worrisome because Bitcoin is heading for either certainty or uncertainty this month:
a. If CME future DERIVATIVES start trading, do not expect much increase in Bitcoin price any more. It will be a CASH-settled derivative that IS NOT LINKED to Bitcoin. If Bitcoin price moves too much and there's no counter-side, the exchange would go under --- and they have been here for over a century. Let me emphasize: it's a DERIVATIVE.
b. If CME cancels this launch, good luck.
That is, either Bitcoin will certainly not go up or it will probably crash under uncertainty.
2. Even at the moment, this is a possible bull trap. Don't chase highs.
1. If all "coins" follow the movement of Bitcoin exactly, there's much less reason to have hundred of these coins on the exchanges. The market will remain immature & weak until at least one or two coins can move independently in times of high volatility. The current situation is worrisome because Bitcoin is heading for either certainty or uncertainty this month:
a. If CME future DERIVATIVES start trading, do not expect much increase in Bitcoin price any more. It will be a CASH-settled derivative that IS NOT LINKED to Bitcoin. If Bitcoin price moves too much and there's no counter-side, the exchange would go under --- and they have been here for over a century. Let me emphasize: it's a DERIVATIVE.
b. If CME cancels this launch, good luck.
That is, either Bitcoin will certainly not go up or it will probably crash under uncertainty.
2. Even at the moment, this is a possible bull trap. Don't chase highs.
Note
cash-settled, missed 'd'Note
I see that CME finally announced the date: 18 Dec to launch this product. So, there could be more speculative upside in the coming days (maybe even today). It's also possible that BTC reaches 20k by mid-Dec. What happens afterwards...
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