Bitcoin's Black Swan event brewing?
Hello traders,
I have recently been pretty busy with my private group and moving to a new home so I wanted to put an idea that I'd been eying for a few months now. As you can see in the chart here there has been a multi year trend line starting back in 2013 which has acted as support for 9 whole years with multiple touch points highlighted in green along this trend. The Few times that we have broken down from that support has only been due to Black Swan events (A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.). These Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight like ones listed on the chart.
The first notable of these events is the Bitfinex Flash Crash that happened in August of 2015, followed quickly after by another Bitfinex debauchery in which was just summed up recently due to the arrest of the notorious couple who hacked the exchange for 3.6 billion dollars of Bitcoin at todays prices. The next time this support trend was broken was during the Covid 19 drop and market scare in March of 2020 which unless, you were living under a rock for the past few years, I'm sure this one had some effect in your life in other ways than giving you a fire sale or melting your heart looking at your crypto investment bag during the drop. Now at current date I have been anticipating another Black Swan event, with all of the Geopolitical turmoil we are all watching unfold everyday that passes it seems almost evident. I wont bore you with my opinions or set out that I am keen to what is going to happen as I am not a political consult of any kind and simply just letting you know my opinion that before we continue the massive rush up that I am also anticipating, I believe we may very well likely see another one of these events. It is very important as a trader to have a solid plan for both bearish and bullish price action. If you treat trading as a business you will grow as a trader and your results will most likely follow.
My Plan for this event if this does in fact play.
First, I have been eyeing area's in which bitcoin may fall to. Here are a few Key area's to watch for, the first one is
29K to30k as this is the next major area of support that bitcoin has below 35k.The second area is between 24k and 
25K as in this area on 
BTC1! is a Gap which do not have to be filled but, most likely do end up getting filled eventually (The gap is the difference between the trading price of a CME bitcoin futures contract when the market closes on Friday and opens on Sunday. The gap occurs because there are no trades between the closing period on Friday and the opening on Sunday. The gap can also occur during holidays when the CME is closed.) The last area I am eying is between 19k and 20k as this is a major support area for Bitcoin ranging all the way back to 2017 in the previous run.
I currently have limit buy orders in these areas and on a few lower supports on some alt coins that I think will do well the rest of the year. So basically averaging in on the way down if we do in fact have another event like this.
On the flip side, it is quite possible that no such event occurs and we continue on with this run shooting up through the shorts that have been stacking up above current price action at 40k. With the probability of Russia being removed from the global Swift Payment system and most likely turning to cryptocurrencies to do commerce moving forward we could see a large influx of crypto users from both Ukraine and Russia over this conflict that has been unfolding. Not to detour too fat from BTC but, this is one of the predominant reasons that I am so bullish on XRP and other such coins that could take the place of the current medium of trade used within these regions.
Regardless, I am very interested in hearing your opinions in the comments below. I am from Michigan in the United States, near Detroit Motor City, In a world full of conflict between others, lets share something positive amongst each other and connect as likeminded individuals which this platform allows us to do.
Until next time, Have a GREEN week!
Savvy
I have recently been pretty busy with my private group and moving to a new home so I wanted to put an idea that I'd been eying for a few months now. As you can see in the chart here there has been a multi year trend line starting back in 2013 which has acted as support for 9 whole years with multiple touch points highlighted in green along this trend. The Few times that we have broken down from that support has only been due to Black Swan events (A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.). These Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight like ones listed on the chart.
The first notable of these events is the Bitfinex Flash Crash that happened in August of 2015, followed quickly after by another Bitfinex debauchery in which was just summed up recently due to the arrest of the notorious couple who hacked the exchange for 3.6 billion dollars of Bitcoin at todays prices. The next time this support trend was broken was during the Covid 19 drop and market scare in March of 2020 which unless, you were living under a rock for the past few years, I'm sure this one had some effect in your life in other ways than giving you a fire sale or melting your heart looking at your crypto investment bag during the drop. Now at current date I have been anticipating another Black Swan event, with all of the Geopolitical turmoil we are all watching unfold everyday that passes it seems almost evident. I wont bore you with my opinions or set out that I am keen to what is going to happen as I am not a political consult of any kind and simply just letting you know my opinion that before we continue the massive rush up that I am also anticipating, I believe we may very well likely see another one of these events. It is very important as a trader to have a solid plan for both bearish and bullish price action. If you treat trading as a business you will grow as a trader and your results will most likely follow.
My Plan for this event if this does in fact play.
First, I have been eyeing area's in which bitcoin may fall to. Here are a few Key area's to watch for, the first one is
29K to30k as this is the next major area of support that bitcoin has below 35k.The second area is between 24k and 25K as in this area on BTC1! is a Gap which do not have to be filled but, most likely do end up getting filled eventually (The gap is the difference between the trading price of a CME bitcoin futures contract when the market closes on Friday and opens on Sunday. The gap occurs because there are no trades between the closing period on Friday and the opening on Sunday. The gap can also occur during holidays when the CME is closed.) The last area I am eying is between 19k and 20k as this is a major support area for Bitcoin ranging all the way back to 2017 in the previous run. I currently have limit buy orders in these areas and on a few lower supports on some alt coins that I think will do well the rest of the year. So basically averaging in on the way down if we do in fact have another event like this.
On the flip side, it is quite possible that no such event occurs and we continue on with this run shooting up through the shorts that have been stacking up above current price action at 40k. With the probability of Russia being removed from the global Swift Payment system and most likely turning to cryptocurrencies to do commerce moving forward we could see a large influx of crypto users from both Ukraine and Russia over this conflict that has been unfolding. Not to detour too fat from BTC but, this is one of the predominant reasons that I am so bullish on XRP and other such coins that could take the place of the current medium of trade used within these regions.
Regardless, I am very interested in hearing your opinions in the comments below. I am from Michigan in the United States, near Detroit Motor City, In a world full of conflict between others, lets share something positive amongst each other and connect as likeminded individuals which this platform allows us to do.
Until next time, Have a GREEN week!
Savvy
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