50WMA is a CRITICAL SUPPORT to watch for ₿itcoin.
Historically, if
BTC closes below it for more than one week, it signals the beginning of the BEAR MARKET.
We’ve only seen BTC close beneath the 50WMA once in its history during a Post-Halving year, and that was in 2021, but then rallied to a new ATH.
People often ask me what would invalidate my bull market thesis;
this is one of them.
I’ll be watching this support very closely, and if BTC closes below it for more than 2 weeks, i’m probably selling a good portion of my stack until we get more clarity in the market.
However, this could very well have been the bottom of this correction.
BTC is known to have a big Q1 drawdown in Post-Halving years.
2013 was a massive -82% correction over a week.
2017 gave us two.
January -34% over 7 days.
March -33% over 14 days.
January 2021 gave us -31% over 14 days.
The current correction we’ve seen with BTC has been the longest over 35 days with -28%.
$75k would be a -31% correction, which would line up perfectly with the previous cycle.
That’s the line in the sand for me.
If we did see the bottom with this 28% correction, that would line up with the diminishing return theory.
Historically, if
BTC closes below it for more than one week, it signals the beginning of the BEAR MARKET.We’ve only seen BTC close beneath the 50WMA once in its history during a Post-Halving year, and that was in 2021, but then rallied to a new ATH.
People often ask me what would invalidate my bull market thesis;
this is one of them.
I’ll be watching this support very closely, and if BTC closes below it for more than 2 weeks, i’m probably selling a good portion of my stack until we get more clarity in the market.
However, this could very well have been the bottom of this correction.
BTC is known to have a big Q1 drawdown in Post-Halving years.
2013 was a massive -82% correction over a week.
2017 gave us two.
January -34% over 7 days.
March -33% over 14 days.
January 2021 gave us -31% over 14 days.
The current correction we’ve seen with BTC has been the longest over 35 days with -28%.
$75k would be a -31% correction, which would line up perfectly with the previous cycle.
That’s the line in the sand for me.
If we did see the bottom with this 28% correction, that would line up with the diminishing return theory.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.