Even though my last idea was about shorting, I am a long term bull in bitcoin and crypto in general.
The move off of the bottom started relatively calm, but has since gained extremely strong momentum. In many people's view the bottom is in. And to be real honest, I certainly think its possible. I really hope the bottom is in.
Bitcoin is its own animal so it can indeed have strong sustain moves. Especially since its still a young market.
However, I get concerned when the market moves up so fast with almost no retrace or consolidation. Why?
1. Generally big money doesn't FOMO in. Maybe a whale bought some at $8500 but this does not look like wall street coming in.
2. If its mostly retail buyers that are panicking back in, these people will be weak and susceptible to any kind of FUD.
3. When there is no consolidation, support is weak, so if we go down and support breaks, it can trigger strong selling
4. Most of the time, bull traps are aggressive like this.
This chart is bitcoin in 2014. History doesn't have to repeat and bitcoin is way different in 2018. However, it still shows you what can happen when a market forms a V bottom, never consolidates and never retests. Everyone rushes back in because they think the bull is back. Then you lose buyers and soon you get selling. People remember the recent sell off, get scared and start selling again.
Sideways consolidations pick up buyers and those buyers tend to protect their buy zones. So you need that to stop heavy selling. We don't have that yet and we need to build it.
I know a lot of people want to us go straight to 15k, but if we could trade between $8500 and $11000 for a few weeks, it would actually strengthen the move.
In Elliott Wave, if this was a wave 3 then we need a nice big wave 4 triangle to help us build support.
If bitcoin goes straight to the trend line, then gets some selling pressure, I worry that we just formed a classic ABC bull trap. $7500 would be the line in the sand. If that got breached, I think panic would set in and the move up works like a coiled spring and it could easily drive bitcoin down to $3000.
Again, this isn't a prediction. It's a concern.