It is clear now that the price is neutralizing the exchange differences and premiums, where BFX has a pending (-2%) correction. I think once these manipulated differences are over, we shall see a move beyond the consolidation. Although we are in a new swing zone with a flat price, my expectations are that by the end of the month we shall see some volatility invst.ly/8zazx. My plan is still the same (TPs = 8200, 9200) with an up-side reversal i.e. Higher High first and if that fails, then we have enough momentum to break the support. Otherwise, BTC will reverse the current order of EMAs (200, 100, 50, 20) in 2019, indicating a golden cross and a long term trend until the next swing zone (April 2019). SL is hidden below Jun low (5770).
Note
Hard to say something during consolidation/flat price but I am just nut-picking for the time being and posting in here. We know that the stacking order of EMAs (200, 100, 50, 20) supports bears but, the price is escaping (break-away) through consolidation, threatening a reversal. MACD maintains positive histogram post-Oct 15, though it is still below zero line (sell territory), which is expected since price is consolidating. However, the volume is showing subtle progress. OBV is slightly upish, the general volume is trending slightly up-slope, while KO is at zero line & didn't B/O the signal line yet, which needs a green candle confirmation on daily.Note
Once BFX manipulation is neutralized, I will get back to that exchange. But for now, I am waiting for the residual 1% difference to be further minimized. Those who are still following BFX decline (unreal) as a leading indicator of 6K support failure should be a bit cautious about the overall picture. I trust the price action will come into play when the net difference between multiple exchanges will fall below 1% https://tolerance....https://invst.ly/8-x9a...Note
invst.ly/8-x9aNote
Since early Aug (Long/Short =64/36) price kept on trading in a narrow rectangle while the short ratio increased, or flipped precisely (Long/Short = 40/60 on avg). These +20% shorts, majority aiming at 4.7K, didn't gain significant profits over +2 months apart from sideways range trading. Current decline is about 5% indicating minor exhaustion in those shorts because of little/no liquidity and diminished volatility. Overall, BTC bearish trend is quite exhausted as well. Most of the traders are just overlooking the neutralization of net difference between several exchanges. For current situation, my best references are BitStamp/GDAX prices which are quite stable or FLAT, and thus my trades as well. Oct is ending and Nov is beginning, which should at least show minor movement following the weekly volume trend.Note
BTC breaks the consolidation (BEARISH) but unfortunately has relatively a low volume & positive divergence on daily while 5H is oversold. 6150 (on-all-exchanges) is the first test for downward/bearish continuation of 2018, while the last defense is around 5777. Next 5H development (candles) is important: (A) on BitStamp (Inverted Hammer, bullish reversal), (B) a Harami bullish on Bitfinex. Once these candles see a follow-up momentum (on next sessions) in predictive directions, you know that the support holds. If these candles get rejected with another bearish candle on 5H, Jun 24 (Doji) low will be test/threatened. Note that for any momentum/direction, follow-up volume is a must. I patiently wait for at least 2 5H sessions for any follow-up trend confirmation, which is always a key in dealing with divergences and candlesticks patterns. Good luck!Note
Post yesterday's bearish move, 5H printed bullish patterns (Doji & Hammer) on BitStamp, which form further consolidation & indicate buyers presence. Thus, panic sell is not yet triggered. Hidden bullish divergence is in-place indicating the underlying weakness behind this leg-down, while the price bounced off from the trend line relative to Jun low (my reference points)...invst.ly/90xoe...Always question if on previous two occasions the strong bearish momentum i.e. 11-red days in a row (fall from 8500) as well as 4-red days in a row (fall from 7500) couldn't break 6150 comprehensively, how come the current bearish leg (relatively smaller candles) will do it? Despite these arguments, I expect a solid test of 6150, if holds, should be the last back-test and then BTC should slowly progress up towards my targets. If 6150 breaks, 5777 (or 5780) is a major test to establish a long-term swing zone till April 2019 rejecting the 4-months long pattern.Note
Also remember the example of a tennis ball bouncing-off a solid-floor such that the bounce height reduces with time as long as external factors are introduced, which consequently change not only the bounce pattern but also the net trend.Note
Following my last post, BTC closes at 6269 just close to my indicated 6260 level (Doji & market indecision on daily) questioning the Oct 29 bearish move, which was on a smaller volume compared to Oct-11/Sep-5 move (both occasions couldn't break below 6150). I previously indicated on Oct 29, when bearish move happened, the hidden bullish divergence is in place (HL/LL with ADL) along with 5H consolidation & oversold momentum. I still expect a solid test of 6150 prior to "break-away (a different concept)" of the descending triangle. Broadly speaking, we are still consolidating within a larger range 5800-6800. Note that June 24 close (6150) is your starting point of BTC reversal (+reduced trading volume while weekly volume trending up), which remains in-place unless BTC trades below "5777" for several days, which has been apparent over past 4-months and to-date.Note
I do see that 5H is holding up. Daily picks-up momentum with two days in a row. Fisher is nearly bullish but not confirmed yet, while the KO is bullish on a neutral momentum (RSI=42). It is evident that Oct 29 move wasn't a rejection since it couldn't break below 6150 till to-date. Monthly losses are reducing (9.18%, 5.96%, -4.46%), first time 3-red months in a row for this year. This was obvious since Sep we saw a reduced volatility on daily basis. Importantly, monthly declining trend on Fisher is over-extended (-2), which is a good sign to expect a relief rally for at least 4-weeks. Active Trades: Longs, TPs=8200,9200 (will see if I need an intermediate profit around 6700), SL=5770.Note
Leverage scalp 6350 win, 6420 pending. Despite these short-term targets, we saw 3-successive accumulation days on a low volume, which is a norm these days since the volatility is low. Current test got rejection at EMA20 but I expect it to reach EMA50(6458) at least during coming days, which is actually maintaining the declining trend. Upon a B/O, a test of 6600-6800 zone remains a valid assertion. Here are my updated long-term extended targets (TP1=6640; TP2=8200; TP3=9200).Note
Update Video: youtu.be/8HLYkELSMzwNote
BTC shows a recovery within the consolidation zone, while weekly is a confirmed doji/pinbar, which was quickly bought above 6232 (BFX) support. Note that BTC is still in consolidation range on BFX (6232-6715) while the B/O of 6838 (May 28, 2018: Fib88.6 benchmark level) is on cards. You can see now the significance of old levels in future. BTC on Bitstamp has a daily channel-up with a double top near 6460 since 5H got rejected post getting a momentum (RSI) above 70. The immediate 5H support is 6384 M/DC, which is obviously close to 20-days EMA, an important level to hold...(BFX https://Chart...https://www.tradingview.com/x/xapcFfKi/...). All BTC position remain open, with no change. GL!Note
BTC channeled up, evidently trading beyond the descending triangle, is testing EMA50 on daily with a strong resistance zone at 6450-6460. The volume (OBV/KO) has already broken its resistance. Given the theory of volume precedes the price, I trust, BTC will break through and target 6500-6600 in coming days. Importantly, weekly volume is on the rise since July 2018, which again recalls the Jun 24 event i.e. 5770-5800 zone, that was a textbook reversal indicator. Another weekly indicator was past week doji near the key intermediate support (6150), indicating the strength of support which buy-backs the fall within the same week. Good luck with your BTC trades, my profit-taking series remains the same until year end: TP1=6640; TP2=8200; TP3=9200.Note
BTC channeled up, continues its bullish momentum (above EMA50 on 1D) on a slower pace. A classical example of volume B/O first prior to the price as posted https://yesterday..https://www.tradingview.com/x/1LAihMo4/...Note that BTC is recovering from significant losses. Thus, a low volume, low volatility, and the slow rise can only raise FEAR & UNCERTAINTY in trader's mind regardless of the market trend, a situation that a trader should avoid in crypto trading. The gaining momentum (RSI=60; MACD=-1.4, FT=+2) will obviously further slow down near 6800 resistance where a volume is needed. All is needed that 6500-6600 zone to become future support for any pullback. But the problem of descending triangle, a model-based approach, was never there unless some one kept on changing trend lines. GL!Note
BTC/ETH/BCH Combined View: You may wonder what is this? Why down again? Well, when 5H is overbought with negative divergences, you expect a cool-down period as I was sharing in my posts. On all three key coins, you can see that the momentum is still in buy zone, price dips, but gets first touch of the support. We may see a 2nd touch as well. EMAs are stacked in a bullish order for BCH, but for ETH & BTC, we still have to wait a bit further. I am waiting to see some price action around the annotated support zone, which is strong, for all of these three to ensure that we are going to re-test their resistances or continue the channel-up next https://week.....https://invst.ly/94yzx....GL!Note
invst.ly/94yzxNote
BTC tested 5H EMA100 and was quickly bought around 6395. However, it is forming an engulfing bearish post 2% loss from the recent top. Contrarily, ETH and BCH are holding above the key EMA supports (EMA50/100), allowing a provisional interpretation of corrections while maintaining the higher low setup so far. Since all coins print an HL/LL divergence against RSI, I trust, the downside is limited. The key for BTC is to close above 6440 on fiat controlled exchanges. invst.ly/95b35 .These days 2% move looks gigantic since the volatility is low. Nevertheless, all exchanges are behaving nearly the same now. invst.ly/95b3i Overall, 6380/6450 supports are holding the key for short-term bearish outlook.Note
This is how important the divergences are & how should you adher to your time-frame. On 5H ETH/BCH got divergences but BTC didn't on momentum. The retracement was a pullbaack and BTC rebounds from Fib0.618 after falling below EMA50, whereas, ETH & BCH also rebounded from Fib0.5 levels keeping the EMA in bullish order. BTC & ETH put a 5H reversal pinbar / Doji. BTC on daily is bearish (Nov 8 bearish engluf; Nove 09 three outside down). But, don't ignore that the volume KO finds its support over a long-term slowly rising trend, and its weekly support keeps on rising along with the trend. The rising support levels are threatening for bearish continuation, with a strong level#1 6150 & deeper 5777. From here on, I will consider such pullbacks are accumulation or buy signals. Thus, I remain bullish above 6K with Dec/Jan upside targets (TP1=6640; TP2=8200; TP3=9200)....5H chart for (BTC/ETH/BCH)...invst.ly/95-sz...All the best and enjoy your weekend.Note
Following my last post on 1D bearishness while 5H reversal pinbar, BTC retested the recent low & put a dragonfly doji (GDAX/BITSTAMP). It not only maintains the Higher Low Setup on daily but also suggests strong buyers strength below Fib0.786(6275) retracement level. Initially, Thu, Nov 08, engulfing bearish move appeared strong but with yesterday's signal, it appears done with a strong intermediate (monthly) support zone i.e. 6150-5777. Once BTC crosses, 6461R at which we got rejection, I expect it to form a future support. The other coins (ETH/BCH) which showed negative divergences are still in sell zone especially BCH (news driven) back testing 496 (5H EMA200) and possibly 455. ETH (Neutral) must hold 206 (just above Fib0.618=203 level), otherwise, it will retraceback to 190 zone. invst.ly/96cttNote
BTC maintains the higher-low setup despite MACD being in the negative territory. With a flat price-volume trend, and a neutral momentum, I expect BTC to rebound towards 6450 during this week. 5H puts a bullish engulf (Positive FT and volume breaking its resistance) post a bearish pin-bar since the decline from 6540 (Nov 06). For now, here is a series of up-stepping or rising support 5777, 6150, 6200, which is again a constant threat for the bearish continuation. Again, the market sentiments are on the other side i.e. no fear along with an ascending long/short ratio favoring bulls.Note
Despite Nov 11 dragon-fly doji on daily, BTC is retesting 6150 support. 5H was putting a bullish engulf which has been quickly turned into bearish. But importantly, 1D, which is not closed yet, is putting a bullish (LL/HL) divergence (ref to OBV or AO). This simply indicates that the down-trend is not that strong until 6150 breaks. If BTC holds 6150, this drop will be considered as a backtest of support. Divergences only help to valuate the strength/weaknesses behding the move. At this moment, I cannot tell if BTC is going to break the support or is trying to gain momentum to put a rally. I remain interested to see what happens next with existing positions and the same targets.Note
BTC rejected Nov 11 Dragonfly doji and broke through 6150-5800 zone on fiat controlled exchanges such as GDAX/BITSTAMP. Active trade (Long): SL at 5770.Note
After yesterday's bearish move, BTC is consolidating around 5600-5550 with a pinbar on 5H (FT=Positve & rising, RSI=oversold on 5H as well as on 1D). CMC drops to +/-180B again, and BTC below 100B, which isn't a good sign. Since we haven't seen any major buying pressure yet except the 5H pinbar or 1D wick, I expect BTC to either re-test the previously broken support to form future resistance or BTC just exempt that standard and continue the decline (1H 3-outside down, bearish) to retest first the 5231 low. Failure to bounce back (1H closes below) will subsequently bring the losses down to 4700 price. One engulfing bearish candle is always hand to follow the trend but we have seen this so many times this year that we cannot always trust that. For now a good scalping range is restricted to 5294-5770 with a 120-150 points SL.Note
BTC puts a bullish rising volume from their respective recent lows with oversold momentum & yesterday's daily close are officially Bullish Doji reversal. Doji will be rejected if BTC breaks below yesterday's low (5188). For now, hourly pullbacks will be common targets to trade/scalp on leverage (Up: short, Down: long). If yesterday's Doji is a true reversal indication, BTC should test the support zone 5800-6150. Bullish momentum will only signify once 6150 is broken. Otherwise, it remains bearish. Meanwhile, my trading plan remains the same i.e. continue scalping within for BTC (5294-5770) and for ETH(190, 180-165).Note
Post Nov 14 decline, no noticeable downward movement has been seen, indicating a trend exhaustion (positively diverging money flow; CMF=0.038; oversold RSI; and vol returning to Sep/Oct lows). Thus, bulls can arguably question the recent drop & risk a LONG position (Oversold RSI, FT=Bullish cross) as close as possible to the recent low i.e. 5200, which can give a profit back to the well-known resistance zone (5777-6150). Obviously, I am going to do the same if awarded. If the zone (5188-5000) breaks, I trust 4700 support will arrive, which is a Sep 2017 Resistance. 5H does show an indication of back test (last 5H close is a bearish shooting star) of 5200. Long-term bullish only comes into play if 6150 breaks. Otherwise, 5800-6150 is a ceiling zone to short, where I was forced to reverse my sentiment & strategy. Current BTC price does not allow to risk a major position, thus better to wait. Furthermore, volatility has been dropped so I stopped scalping after past successful sessions.Note
With all shorts covered, I see that 5H puts a positive divergence post 1H divergence. I will be very surprised if BTC breaks below 4700 this week, which will suggest that it is going further deep. With crypto's unpredictability, I understand the risks you take when opening a position. Thus, I am going to add longs at current position, along with a further drop to 4700, where I expect a bounce. My upside targets are provisional (5450, 5750) and subject to change based on market situation. Once these levels are touched and the bounce gets weaken, I will plan a short with an upside limit 6150.Note
BTC touched Sep 01, 2017 resistance which is partly giving some support. As indicated several times earlier this year and today, 4700 is the area that I still look forward to provide a bounce. A part from positive divergence on 5H, there is only on insignificant 15min candle supporting a bounce. Overall, the price is on a free-fall decline in an oversold territory. Since the bearish candle (yesterday) price has already dropped +12% & reserves full rights to show some merciful consolidation here. TP1=5450, TP2=5750 in place. Good luck!Note
5H bullish doji and yesterday's piercing, collectively gaining nearly 12% from the new low. This does indicate a bounce towards 4700 and 5200 but so far 5H is consolidating. Surprisingly BTC is following Fibonacci Extension of 0.618 (750-points down). If this system continues, then the following Fib4.236=3592 and Fib4.618=3304 should arrive. For now the recent touch to 4039 has been bought but no follow-through. Money flow is recovering as well while volume is dropping indicating consolidation. I will have to set a B/E SL for my short position and take a new position on the next rise towards 5200 with 5770 at max. TP2=3250 remains the same. If BTC it touches 4200 again, I will take a further intermediate profit.Note
invst.ly/9al5qNote
4200 hits 2nd time while BTC backtested 4040. So far it has been apparently bounced-off with 5H strong bullish divergence rising from oversold territory (RSI=30; KO=-191) while the trend has not been reversed (FT=Neg) to guarantee an upside bounce towards 4700, 5200 and 5770 (ceiling). I move the stop-loss to 4450 to remain in profit for the remaining part of the short position targeting 3250. Once this level is broken, BTC will perform a pending task i.e. back-test the 2018 historical support that it broke.Note
First time I notice some real money flowing attributed as a positively diverging volume. However, we do see a provisional halt on 15min shooting star (4033), unless rejected with bullish continuation. Otherwise, it is a further short targeting the same i.e. 3250. Given this buying pressure shows some potential, upside profit ranges will be great i.e. a series of resistances: 4700, 5200, 5770. With my profit SL=4080 (bitmex) for 4700-4650 entries, I will only go long if 4200 (my previous TP) is broken. targeting 4700 & 5200. With 5770 being the upper ceiling limit, I trust any rally to fail there to open a short. Note that my strategy for 2018 bear market remains simple, bought the floor, now short the ceiling, both defining the same level.Note
Trade win at 4080 SL triggered. Patiently waiting for the next short entry, which could very likely be today if BTC doesn't touch 4200.Note
BTC is progressively consolidating with one more leg down to re-test the recent low 3492 while the momentum and trend remain in bearish sell zone (RSI=16;MACD=-515;STOCH=oversold). The positive divergence against the momentum and OBV strongly indicate that further leg down might not be significant also supported by over-stretched FISHER=-6. Since we are below 4-yrs average i.e. Monthly EMA50 or Weekly EMA200, further losses are expected (CMC to fall below 100B, while BTC to drop below 50B MC). Having said that, the first retracement level (Fib0.886=2348) could be interesting, otherwise, it will re-test (-40% to -50%) the last well-known ATH=1163/1171. I remain short with my previous TP=3250 and will continue to do it so until Fib0.886. I will only reverse the trade if 4200 is broken targeting 4700, 5200 and 5770. P.S: I will not make huge investment on BTC, assuming a bottom, unless EMAs(50,100,200) are stacked in a reverse order on daily.Note
Cautious and cautious game-in-play. Unless the 4200 line is broken with buying vol, this remains a short. Sluggish rise brings no threats without a price action. I have now put SL at B/E 3980. I will re-take a short (TP=3200) if BTC fails close to 4080 or 4200. Above 4200 is a long. Note that Nov isn't closed and year didn't end yet thus the word 'cautious' comes to your mind.Note
BTC rebounded from the fresh low 3461, and is gaining momentum on daily (RSI=26.9; FT=positive). However, it has to face the immediate resistance at EMA9 on daily or 4200 rounded-off. Once that is broken, then I will open a long as indicated earlier. Otherwise, it is a sell either way i.e. under 4200 rejection (mandatory confirmation), or above 5200 (again mandatory price-action confirmation). I will rely on 1H rejection or B/O in all cases. All plan annotated https://here...https://www.tradingview.com/x/khYfax7l/Note
Quick follow-up to my last two posts. I initially thought 4080 to provide some resistance on hourly, which it did so far. Given 4080 level breaks, it will complete an inverse HnS pattern with upside extension towards 4526, which favors long above 4200. If BTC does not manage to complete the pattern in next 10-15hrs, then I will consider it a failed pattern to place a short targeting 3250. Again, B/O of 4200 will be a long for me assuming 5H buying pressure and 1D positive divergence such as OBV/RSI.Note
Inv HnS pattern confirmed. BTC breaks 4080R but the buying pressure did not reach yet 4200 critical level. Patiently waiting as the trade will be on 4H/5H basis.Note
For now it seems like BTC is getting a rejection under 4200 and Fib Fan resistance. If so, this will be the profit-taking as well as the sell zone. Buy zone only comes into play (backed by daily OBV and RSI positive divergence) when we see BTC consolidating above 4200 comprehensively.... tradingview.com/x/COoo8PoV/... I will wait for the next 4H close (red/green) to trade accordingly. If it rallies to 4700, I will assume that I missed the train and will look forward to a feasible next short entry. All the best!Note
the same chart with 15min rejection in hand, it will re-test 4200 any way as I sated above. Talk soon!...Note
Here is the reason why 4200 - You can look at the weekly chart (EMA200 & Fib0.786 level).Note
I missed some comments:Note
11 hours ago4200 is technically broken with buying pressure on daily gaining 16% back from Nov monthly losses. If BTC has turned bullish as the daily RSI indicates it should technically retest Jun 24 support that it broke. Thus, first technical resistance near 4500 with subsequent levels 4700 & 5200 should be tested as well. I flipped to long since 4200 is broken. I will stay long until daily turns bearish again.
Note
11 hours agoNote that Nov is not closed yet as well as Dec is there where usually loads of money flows in financial markets to harmonize natural losses thus psychological trades. Any thing can happen from here on and it will be wise to trade without any definite targets.
Note
The idea was to break above 4200 and trade above. However, BTC tried to break above 4200 and Fib Fan resistance and got a pullback along the down-trending line. The hourly is facing hurdles 2nd time at 4200, while 5H completes a bearish suite: advance block bearish, deliberation bearish doji and evening doji start pattern. Vols are sustained on various exchanges. If BTC does not break 4200 in the following 5H session, and breaks 4080 last defense, it is a confirmed failed pattern. Thus, I will react accordingly to close the long at a minimum loss and open a short with TP=3650, 3250. Note
Hourly outlook isn't good. I am exiting the long at minimal profit (leveraged). The price rises from 4365-4410 with a declining receding momentum (RSI/STOCH/FT) and declining volume suggesting the weakness in the trend. Although the extension of inv. HnS was set to 4365, it may land in there. But is becoming questionable with these bearish divergences and 5H candlestick pattern. I'll now look forward to a futher rise towards 4525 & 4700 to consider a short OR a rejection at the current double top with the neckline around 4080 to guarantee a safe short. Conventional trading volume is still high but KO drops, which gives negatives to this rise. Hourly outlook isn't good. I am exiting the long at minimal profit (leveraged). The price rises from 4365-4410 with a declining receding momentum (RSI/STOCH/FT) and declining volume suggesting the weakness in the trend. Although the extension of inv. HnS was set to 4365, it may land in there. But is becoming questionable with these bearish divergences and 5H candlestick pattern. I'll now look forward to a futher rise towards 4525 & 4700 to consider a short OR a rejection at the current double top with the neckline around 4080 to guarantee a safe short. Conventional trading volume is still high but KO drops, which gives negatives to this ris.invst.ly/9d6oe
Note
Then, this happens, so timely exit!Note
Finally 5H turns bearish though it has a potential to rise till 4250 but 4300 should provide some resistance now. How crucial the 4200 (Weekly EMA200 and Fib0. 268) level was we will know soon. Scaling a short now cautiously targeting 3750 and ultimately the previous expectation 3250.Note
Yesterday's market closed the daily at an indecisive level between 4250-4248 (avg) - nearly a Doji matching Nov 23 Doji. As expected, the price to stay below 4300 level, which it did but it did not break below 4080 support, which is indicating a consolidation phase for Nov 28 bullish engulf. Once it breaks above it can rise first to complete the 1H inv HnS pattern at 4525 extension with upside spike limit towards 4700. I'll remain short and will scale it up. Is it ready for a rally towards 6K ceiling, is not certain with limited candles on daily. Today's monthly close with G20 summit are the events to watch for.Note
BTC is certainly developing a new support (3869) above the recent low 3461 halting the next bearish leg down to my TP=3750 with a neutral channel or flat RSI=44.5 on 5H. Since the recent rejection from 4400, BTC is also hovering around M/DC. If this all holds right in here, then bulls can take over and lead this towards 4700 & 5200. But I do not have any confirmed new low signal as I cannot find much on candlesticks at this very moment. Since the volumes are highly sustained over past days, the only good thing that I can do now is to protect the short with a profit taking stop-loss at 4050.Trade closed: stop reached
Last trade closed, with a profit SL.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.