What I'm telling my family about BTC over the holidays.

Updated

Well the holiday season is coming up. For a lot of us that means varying degrees of questioning on how "that fake internet money stuff" is going.
Luckily for me no one in my family has gotten rekt from listening to my advice given last year, so I can hold my head high during dinner (My uncle even started shorting in February - pretty sure he's happy).

Anyway here's roughly what I will answer when people ask my outlook.

We either stay above the (3270-3300) level accumulating our way to strong support here, for a few months and then the confluence of expected good news and the new year (yay, tax write offs) triggers a sentiment reversal and we all go to the moon.

If that does not happen, and we convincingly break down below the current level I'm pretty sure we're fucked - depending a little bit on the velocity of the drop.
The worst case scenario I see is a quick drop to around the 1300 level, where miners WILL be significantly challenged - especially if the drop is so quick that the difficulty does not have time to reset.
If we stay below that level for any meaningful amount of time, I think we all have to find a new hobby.

Note

Well well well, here we are - a calm few months following Christmas and the new year. The price has more or less respected the green line this far, and i take it to be a mildly encouraging signal that BTC has pretty much stopped reacting to bad news of any kind.
I've been cautiously accumulating in the 3.3k - 3.8K range and honestly I'd be more than happy to continue to do so for a while longer.

There has been this sneaking feeling for the last few days that a bigger move is coming, but that might just be springtime arriving - we'll see.

Note

So far so good.

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Some current reflections, really more for myself than anyone else.

Hedging a bit here right below 7K - does not look to me like we will be breaking through on this attempt.
That might reverse suddenly so no strongly held biases here at all.

Think there is still a good bit of room left upwards, and have about 70% confidence that current price trend will continue, though not as violently in the next few weeks.

Slightly kicking my self for not taking the setup in ADA a 2 days ago, but pretty sure there will be a new opportunity soon.

Expecting FOMO to start building soon if this continues, might be an interesting summer.
Largely bearish on most alts except the major ones.

Note

So, i was wrong. Adjusting a bit as we go currently at 7260.
Missed a bit of profit from hedging, but a nice move none the less, will probably be sitting up for a few more hours following the action.

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8K. Im scared and aroused, scaraoused?
Either way this is mental, have no strong opinion on where we go from here other than this bear market being well and thoroughly over.
Congratulations all survivors of the bear market of '18. Buy yourself something nice, you’ve earned it.

Note

Phew, these have been some great weeks.

Nice pullback today from high 13Ks back to 11K, with a strong bullish trend more than confirmed the old BTFD narrative is back and working.
Im putting some fresh fiat in at this level.

Ad astra bitches.

Note

Pretty happy to have this record of calling the bottom

ssom

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