BTC HISTORICAL moment ! Don't cross the streams !

Updated

BTC is currently at a very iconic and landmark moment, even if most don't realise. In the next two days, bitcoin will be done, or undone, more or less

This is the first time the moving averages of all frames are squeezed and crossing so much at a single convergence point, since 2013.
We are exactly on the top of the thinest Ichimoku cloud ever
The Bollinger bands are very thin and at the average
We are halfway from the all time high to the correction bottom retracement
We are at the support uptrend of Gann analysis and the end of a cycle
On the Elliott wave front, we did 3 huge correctives waves down and are at the point where the market wonders "another 2 more for a long-time bear market? or a slow start of a recovery ?"

Any movement now will be decisive, and has a high probability to be met with strength

The more we wait, the more bearish it gets

Stay frosty !

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That's the strength I was talking about

Short closed

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Still following my previous idea. Plan A or B unfolding, obviously. This is why the 16 500 and obvious head & shoulder was fishy for me. Even if it was a inverse head & shoulder, we had not completed it. We can see two left shoulders, and there was only one right shoulder. Second one had to exist, and also be much more brutal, and B shaped. This is it

Either that, or plan B, rebound is weak, recovery minimal, and we go down to my 4400 target. Closed the new short at 8620$ right now. Will wait to see, we are very close to my 8200$ target

Thank you for your trust, your patience has been rewarded

Link to the previous idea :

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building shorts, with stop loss in case of rebound

tradingview.com/chart/XmOAGXrP/

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Perfect swings, finally we see some volatility in BTC. Traders are back in the game finally !

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Bearish momentum slowing down at first, I expect a rebound around 8600, then more down, to finally reach our targets. Ideal target is 8150$ before a good rebound, as said in our previous analysis for the past 2-3 weeks, but possibility of an extension to 7800.
If momentum slows too much, we could see a bottom for more range, making a giant bear flag or triangle forming instead of a big rebound.
I'm still not buying holdings, and still holding my Investment Stack coins from 6k dip even if we go to 4k4 as planned on my plan B this time, as I got them on discount thanks to XRP's rebound. I keep trading the downfall with a shorting bearish biais

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#btcusd Longs take profit hit
Maybe more up but down more probable
If we go up, I see 10 250$ as the major pivot to bounce back to bearish for plan B, or to pierce to go up for plan A

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By request, an update to add more clarity

Scenarii considered :
Red is "trade bearish plan B (4400$)", green is "trade bullish plan A with an underestimated bottom (8150$ then 16500$)", orange is "don't bother, wait it out"
I bet on the red one even if it is plan B and not A, to manage risk, since I am long on my invested portfolio of BTC (to hedge), but orange is possible, if so, I will wait to find a top to short

Trade closed: target reached

Touchdown. Waiting to relax and keep trading on the same map

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No changes of plan, still following plan A (7800 - 8150$) as yesterday's short was proof of lack of bullish momentum

Plan B is still a drop to the 4400$. Just keep following the plan we setup almost two months ago now

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Bear flag might collapse now, or spring with huge strength as shorters get squeezed

Biais is bearish for a collapse

Trade closed: target reached

Current price 7490$

We are at the point where I'm not comfortable being in a short anymore. I will stop opening new swing shorts (leaving it open at night) until we get higher prices and only short using daytrade

If we close daily or weekly below 7500, plan A is invalidated, meaning a target of 6k and then 4.4k$ for btc without even a bounce to the 13-16k

Nidalas

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