BTC: A Tale of Three Counts (YOU HAVE TO READ THE POST)
Bitcoin's downward momentum is undeniable at this point. All three counts are pointing down for at least one more low to 28k before the BTC correction is over. However, the probabilities favor the green and red counts for reasons explained in more detail below.
First and foremost, the smaller degree yellow (iv) on my last chart invalidated the potential for a near term upside since my last post. As a result, the yellow count is still completing the larger correction of yellow circle iv (a larger degree 4th wave). Currently, yellow circle iv support sits right around 28k, which represents the 1.0 fib extension of yellow (a) starting at the top of yellow (b). The purple lines show you the C=A measurements. Yellow circle iv represents an expanded flat correction given the nominally higher high of the yellow wave (b). It could be complete already, but it doesn't seem likely with such a weak move off the last low. For yellow count to play out, the BTC bulls need to develop an impulsive five wave move off the low. Three wave leading diagonals cannot be trusted under these circumstances because the green and red counts discussed below both project three wave corrective moves higher into resistance before more impulsive SHARP DROPS lower.
The Green count is and has always been my primary count. It seems to be working its way towards resistance of the micro wave 2. It has resistance up to $44.8. BUT REMEMBER, price does not need to test maximum resistances on the green count. In this scenario, everyone should expect a SHARP DROP down to micro green 3 at around 26k in the event price cannot push through the resistance. It presents a decent shorting opportunity with tight stops at the green resistance. Assuming we move through resistance, the probabilities will favor the red count before the yellow count unless and until price and momentum tell a different story.
The red count is the most sinister of the three counts. It assumes we just completed the first wave down of red i and projects some near term upside potential to red ii, which could take price to around 52.2k. Although price can rise to above
52K on this count, the red count still points down to around the same targets as the green count (or the .382 retracement of wave circle 3 in green on the bigger picture/timeframes). In this scenario, price will continue to suck in BTC bulls as price rises to above 50k before the inevitable fake out lower. Because red ii does not need to test its maximum resistance, a long position to 52K seems like significantly more risk than reward - especially while the green count projects an immediate and sharp move lower in the very near term.
Overall, everyone should be on alert for SHARP DROPS to at least 28k with the increasing potential to test major longterm support at 22k unless price starts making big moves through its resistance. There is A LOT of technical resistance up to 52.2k with two counts pointing to around 22k in the near to medium tern. Everyone should look at my weekly chart, which I linked so you can understand the big picture as BTC works its way down to test major support before starting the larger degree wave (3) shown on the weekly chart.
Also, just so we are clear. I've been posting these charts on here for a couple weeks now although I've been tracking the same counts at all time frames and degrees for much longer. Sure, my charts require you to actually think about whats happening with price on multiple time frames as opposed to providing you with confirmation bias in the form of a single arrow pointing towards your retirement dreams. But price is telling "A Tale of Three Counts" with probabilities favoring the Green and Red counts. You are free to ignore my analysis, but you do so at your own peril. This post, like all my others, is about risk management utilizing Elliot Wave theory to identify resistance and support. I'm happy to answer any questions in the comment section when I have time.
#ReadTheWavePrinciple
#PriceIsKing
#MeasuredMoves
#NotAdvice
#LookingDown
First and foremost, the smaller degree yellow (iv) on my last chart invalidated the potential for a near term upside since my last post. As a result, the yellow count is still completing the larger correction of yellow circle iv (a larger degree 4th wave). Currently, yellow circle iv support sits right around 28k, which represents the 1.0 fib extension of yellow (a) starting at the top of yellow (b). The purple lines show you the C=A measurements. Yellow circle iv represents an expanded flat correction given the nominally higher high of the yellow wave (b). It could be complete already, but it doesn't seem likely with such a weak move off the last low. For yellow count to play out, the BTC bulls need to develop an impulsive five wave move off the low. Three wave leading diagonals cannot be trusted under these circumstances because the green and red counts discussed below both project three wave corrective moves higher into resistance before more impulsive SHARP DROPS lower.
The Green count is and has always been my primary count. It seems to be working its way towards resistance of the micro wave 2. It has resistance up to $44.8. BUT REMEMBER, price does not need to test maximum resistances on the green count. In this scenario, everyone should expect a SHARP DROP down to micro green 3 at around 26k in the event price cannot push through the resistance. It presents a decent shorting opportunity with tight stops at the green resistance. Assuming we move through resistance, the probabilities will favor the red count before the yellow count unless and until price and momentum tell a different story.
The red count is the most sinister of the three counts. It assumes we just completed the first wave down of red i and projects some near term upside potential to red ii, which could take price to around 52.2k. Although price can rise to above
52K on this count, the red count still points down to around the same targets as the green count (or the .382 retracement of wave circle 3 in green on the bigger picture/timeframes). In this scenario, price will continue to suck in BTC bulls as price rises to above 50k before the inevitable fake out lower. Because red ii does not need to test its maximum resistance, a long position to 52K seems like significantly more risk than reward - especially while the green count projects an immediate and sharp move lower in the very near term.Overall, everyone should be on alert for SHARP DROPS to at least 28k with the increasing potential to test major longterm support at 22k unless price starts making big moves through its resistance. There is A LOT of technical resistance up to 52.2k with two counts pointing to around 22k in the near to medium tern. Everyone should look at my weekly chart, which I linked so you can understand the big picture as BTC works its way down to test major support before starting the larger degree wave (3) shown on the weekly chart.
Also, just so we are clear. I've been posting these charts on here for a couple weeks now although I've been tracking the same counts at all time frames and degrees for much longer. Sure, my charts require you to actually think about whats happening with price on multiple time frames as opposed to providing you with confirmation bias in the form of a single arrow pointing towards your retirement dreams. But price is telling "A Tale of Three Counts" with probabilities favoring the Green and Red counts. You are free to ignore my analysis, but you do so at your own peril. This post, like all my others, is about risk management utilizing Elliot Wave theory to identify resistance and support. I'm happy to answer any questions in the comment section when I have time.
#ReadTheWavePrinciple
#PriceIsKing
#MeasuredMoves
#NotAdvice
#LookingDown
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