Bitcoin's Bull Flag analysis
Updated
This analysis will be about the current bull flag. Trying to find a few signs to whether it's real one or a fake one.
First of all and most important, the push up we had was real, strong and high volume. This normally says chances are like 90% that we see a continuation at some point, seeing a second wave up. I have however expressed my worries in my public channel yesterday, that something seems to be slightly off.
To be honest, i am still not sure at this point, i am however leaning towards a real bull fag again. It is however on the condition that we see a small move down as you can see in the chart above. Bull flags need to move down, not sideways or up even, as we can see in the examples here below. So it could mean, because of the big rally, the size of it, that the bull flag might even take like a week or so. That would give it a lot more room to make it a real one moving down and not sideways.
One of my big worries are the alts. Like ETH had a weird big dump from the high of the rally, The volume on the dump was very high as well. Usually ETH shows more clean movement during times like this. So i would have expected a nice bull flag instead of this weird setup.
When looking at the Alt market cap chart, also not really seeing the trend reversal. There is still the option that the real push happens in the second leg up. So if we see a decent drop in to that green zone, make a new low in that bull flag and turn up again, then we might get our answer to whether this move up is just a correction or the start of something.
Since holiday's are coming, there might even be a chance that we won't see any real movement for a week or 2.
So i am remaining a bit cautious here, because of the reasons here above and the ones i mentioned yesterday. What i want to see, is a small drop somewhere around 6950/7000 and seeing buyers step in again. So actually as you can see in the chart seeing some tests of support inside the flag
Previous analysis:
First of all and most important, the push up we had was real, strong and high volume. This normally says chances are like 90% that we see a continuation at some point, seeing a second wave up. I have however expressed my worries in my public channel yesterday, that something seems to be slightly off.
To be honest, i am still not sure at this point, i am however leaning towards a real bull fag again. It is however on the condition that we see a small move down as you can see in the chart above. Bull flags need to move down, not sideways or up even, as we can see in the examples here below. So it could mean, because of the big rally, the size of it, that the bull flag might even take like a week or so. That would give it a lot more room to make it a real one moving down and not sideways.
One of my big worries are the alts. Like ETH had a weird big dump from the high of the rally, The volume on the dump was very high as well. Usually ETH shows more clean movement during times like this. So i would have expected a nice bull flag instead of this weird setup.
When looking at the Alt market cap chart, also not really seeing the trend reversal. There is still the option that the real push happens in the second leg up. So if we see a decent drop in to that green zone, make a new low in that bull flag and turn up again, then we might get our answer to whether this move up is just a correction or the start of something.
Since holiday's are coming, there might even be a chance that we won't see any real movement for a week or 2.
So i am remaining a bit cautious here, because of the reasons here above and the ones i mentioned yesterday. What i want to see, is a small drop somewhere around 6950/7000 and seeing buyers step in again. So actually as you can see in the chart seeing some tests of support inside the flag
Previous analysis:
Note
What i forget to mention is the very low volume at the moment. When comparing the volume, we can see it really died in this bull flag. Now at first it was also a sign that made me worry a bit. But when thinking about it, it doesnt make any sense that it drops this much after such a high volume pump. Only thing i can think of is, the whales in this market probably pumped it on purpose, to prevent a crash during the holiday's. So keeping the market at neutral levels while they (as should we) can take a break coming week or 2. A year ago we also had that big pump from the 3200 low, with very high volume, then all of a sudden volume died completely from the 23/24th of Dec. If this theory is right, it would mean that we should not see price drop below 6800/700 coming week or 2. Also don't think we will see a very big move to the upside either. So think we stay between 7800 and 6700 coming week or 2
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