Will Bitcoin Go Up?
Updated
Hello traders.
Lately I've been doing my technical analysis alone, due to lack of time to clearly write ideas.
But this time I managed to share. I hope it helps.
Any suggestion or idea, just say the word.
Some things I say very briefly to save space.
Here I will analyze some aspects that I think relevant.
1. Stochastic
On the weekly chart, looking at the Stochastic Momentum Index Ergodic (SMI), we see important momentum.
I particularly use two overlapping periods.
With blue and red lines, I use a shorter period, with a loopback of 21 periods and a smoothing of 5.
With green and purple lines, I use a long period, with a loopback of 100 periods and a smoothing of 5.
When both cross upwards, and there is considerable upside up to the 100 limit, we can see in the past that it was an explosive upswing moment.
When that happened, I underlined the circles in red.
2. Moving Averages (Rainbow)
Monthly chart:
I use this rainbow of exponential moving averages ranging from the 5-period average to 85-period.
It's a custom version that I developed myself... I'll publish it soon.
What we can see here is that the last time the price hit the bottom of the rainbow was during the pandemic. If that happens now, the price would be between $20,000 and $18,000.
Weekly chart:
On the weekly chart I circled the times when the price broke the rainbow, just like it did now recently.
If the behavior repeats the past, we would have the following scenarios:
Scene 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
Scenario 4:
Scenario 5:
Scenario 6:
Scenario 7:
It is worth mentioning that there are 7 circles.
Out of the 7 times this happened, 4 times we had a bullish scenario, 2 times we had a bearish scenario, and 1 time we had a tie scenario.
That is, in 57% of the time the price went up, in 0.15% it was undefined and in 28% of the time the price went down.
Now we are in the eighth time... what will happen?
3. Pitchfork Long-term
Looking at the long-term Pitchfork, we see that the price is within the red range.
The last time the price broke below was in the pandemic in March/2020.
The central white line can be a strong resistance.
4. Pitchfork Short-term
Looking at the short-term inverse fork, we see a possible breakout of the diagonal in green.
5. Shoulder-head-shoulder
The chart appears to be forming a head-to-shoulder, which is nothing more than a weakening of the uptrend.
However, this bearish pattern hasn't even happened yet, and it may never happen.
It will only confirm if there is a pullback to the downside and the price fails to break the
52K resistance.
6. Fib Speed Resistance Fan
In this chart pattern we see that the price is in the green range.
Theoretically, the maximum drop would be in the blue range, around 32k
7. Trend-Based Fib Time
Interestingly, tracing the bottom of August/2015 to the top of December/2017, we see that the 1,382 Fibonacci time coincides with the beginning of the war.
Would another important period be in September 2022? I do not know...
8. Projection to next targets
In the first Fibonacci projection we would theoretically have a target of $268,000 at 100% Fibo.
In the second longest projection, it could 100% drop by $480,000.
9. Bullish channel and bar patterns
The price remains within the bullish channel.
I put some scenarios in the figures above.
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
10. Elliott Waves
I'm not an ace in Elliot waves, but I think that we possibly ended the corrective wave C within Elliott wave 2.
11. 4h chart with bearish divergence
We have a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart.
12. Gap in the futures of CME
In the Bitcoin CME Futures, we have a gap.
Will it be filled?
13. Price zones in the futures of CME
There is strong resistance at 52k.
If it drops to $45,500, it would be a great entry price.
It can fall into the vacuum between US$42,000.
14. NVT - Network Value to Transactions
The indicator shows a strong rise.
15. Volumes in on-chain data
In red we have the average movement in stable coins (USDT, USDC, etc.)
In green we have the average movement in BTC (both BTC on the Bitcoin network and WBTC enveloped on the Ethereum network).
In yellow we have the average movement in the main DeFi platforms (Curve, AAVE, etc.).
We can see a progressive drop in volume, with the last peak on 01/28/22 indicating strong support at 40k ~ 38k.
Lately I've been doing my technical analysis alone, due to lack of time to clearly write ideas.
But this time I managed to share. I hope it helps.
Any suggestion or idea, just say the word.
Some things I say very briefly to save space.
Here I will analyze some aspects that I think relevant.
1. Stochastic
On the weekly chart, looking at the Stochastic Momentum Index Ergodic (SMI), we see important momentum.
I particularly use two overlapping periods.
With blue and red lines, I use a shorter period, with a loopback of 21 periods and a smoothing of 5.
With green and purple lines, I use a long period, with a loopback of 100 periods and a smoothing of 5.
When both cross upwards, and there is considerable upside up to the 100 limit, we can see in the past that it was an explosive upswing moment.
When that happened, I underlined the circles in red.
2. Moving Averages (Rainbow)
Monthly chart:
I use this rainbow of exponential moving averages ranging from the 5-period average to 85-period.
It's a custom version that I developed myself... I'll publish it soon.
What we can see here is that the last time the price hit the bottom of the rainbow was during the pandemic. If that happens now, the price would be between $20,000 and $18,000.
Weekly chart:
On the weekly chart I circled the times when the price broke the rainbow, just like it did now recently.
If the behavior repeats the past, we would have the following scenarios:
Scene 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
Scenario 4:
Scenario 5:
Scenario 6:
Scenario 7:
It is worth mentioning that there are 7 circles.
Out of the 7 times this happened, 4 times we had a bullish scenario, 2 times we had a bearish scenario, and 1 time we had a tie scenario.
That is, in 57% of the time the price went up, in 0.15% it was undefined and in 28% of the time the price went down.
Now we are in the eighth time... what will happen?
3. Pitchfork Long-term
Looking at the long-term Pitchfork, we see that the price is within the red range.
The last time the price broke below was in the pandemic in March/2020.
The central white line can be a strong resistance.
4. Pitchfork Short-term
Looking at the short-term inverse fork, we see a possible breakout of the diagonal in green.
5. Shoulder-head-shoulder
The chart appears to be forming a head-to-shoulder, which is nothing more than a weakening of the uptrend.
However, this bearish pattern hasn't even happened yet, and it may never happen.
It will only confirm if there is a pullback to the downside and the price fails to break the
52K resistance.6. Fib Speed Resistance Fan
In this chart pattern we see that the price is in the green range.
Theoretically, the maximum drop would be in the blue range, around 32k
7. Trend-Based Fib Time
Interestingly, tracing the bottom of August/2015 to the top of December/2017, we see that the 1,382 Fibonacci time coincides with the beginning of the war.
Would another important period be in September 2022? I do not know...
8. Projection to next targets
In the first Fibonacci projection we would theoretically have a target of $268,000 at 100% Fibo.
In the second longest projection, it could 100% drop by $480,000.
9. Bullish channel and bar patterns
The price remains within the bullish channel.
I put some scenarios in the figures above.
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
10. Elliott Waves
I'm not an ace in Elliot waves, but I think that we possibly ended the corrective wave C within Elliott wave 2.
11. 4h chart with bearish divergence
We have a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart.
12. Gap in the futures of CME
In the Bitcoin CME Futures, we have a gap.
Will it be filled?
13. Price zones in the futures of CME
There is strong resistance at 52k.
If it drops to $45,500, it would be a great entry price.
It can fall into the vacuum between US$42,000.
14. NVT - Network Value to Transactions
The indicator shows a strong rise.
15. Volumes in on-chain data
In red we have the average movement in stable coins (USDT, USDC, etc.)
In green we have the average movement in BTC (both BTC on the Bitcoin network and WBTC enveloped on the Ethereum network).
In yellow we have the average movement in the main DeFi platforms (Curve, AAVE, etc.).
We can see a progressive drop in volume, with the last peak on 01/28/22 indicating strong support at 40k ~ 38k.
Note
Passing here to update possible scenarios, based on CME futures.Perfect scenario:
Optimal Scenario
Side accumulation scenario:
Bad scenario:
Manipulation scenario
Apocalyptic scenario
Note
Meteor fall with nuclear war:
To contribute to my work:
⚡Bitcoin Lightning: forwardocean64@walletofsatoshi.com
🟠Bitcoin: bc1qv0j28wjsg6l8fdkphkmgfz4f55xpph893q0pdh
🔵PayPal: paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=D9KRKY5HMSL9S
⚡Bitcoin Lightning: forwardocean64@walletofsatoshi.com
🟠Bitcoin: bc1qv0j28wjsg6l8fdkphkmgfz4f55xpph893q0pdh
🔵PayPal: paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=D9KRKY5HMSL9S
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