This is a Sucker's Rally for BTC
Updated
Hello ,
Im an amateur. I have 0 credibility so dont take my word for it but I do notice a few things :
- If we assume we have been crawling out of the bear market this past couple of months , dont you think it should have been slow and steady like a healthy trend suggests. The previous bear market transitioned into a bull market uptrend on a 23 ish degree angle. This current trend is pushing 45 degrees. There is no real bottoming structure present nor any retest. You can see in the charts that there are candles that need to be fixed around the 3500-4500 area ( orderbook is messed up )
- Screaming red NVT Signal
- Everything went too fast. Compared to the last bear market , we spent a good amount of time in the hole and based on the fact it took the current bear market longer to capitulate , you'd think it would spent more time in the hole as well.
- This whole rally seems to be a retracement into the .618-.786 area of the entire bear market. This coincides perfectly why the NVT is flashing red. It will probably stay red till the 13.5k-16k USD area. I do not believe this is the real bullrun , sure I am trading the current price action but im not buying the fact that this is THE bullrun.
Ipso facto , Im not believing it , we will see prices around 13.5k-16k and then have a severe down move with targets of around 3.5k-4.5k and possibly even lower ( 2500-2800 area ). Im talking about the 2nd leg of the capitulation. When ? The quarter ends in a few days and by the way pa is developing now , i expect the high to be made in july / august followed by some serious FUD ( ban / hack or whatever ) that would justify the immense crash.
Make fun of me if you want , Im probably wrong but just wanted to put it out there.
Im an amateur. I have 0 credibility so dont take my word for it but I do notice a few things :
- If we assume we have been crawling out of the bear market this past couple of months , dont you think it should have been slow and steady like a healthy trend suggests. The previous bear market transitioned into a bull market uptrend on a 23 ish degree angle. This current trend is pushing 45 degrees. There is no real bottoming structure present nor any retest. You can see in the charts that there are candles that need to be fixed around the 3500-4500 area ( orderbook is messed up )
- Screaming red NVT Signal
- Everything went too fast. Compared to the last bear market , we spent a good amount of time in the hole and based on the fact it took the current bear market longer to capitulate , you'd think it would spent more time in the hole as well.
- This whole rally seems to be a retracement into the .618-.786 area of the entire bear market. This coincides perfectly why the NVT is flashing red. It will probably stay red till the 13.5k-16k USD area. I do not believe this is the real bullrun , sure I am trading the current price action but im not buying the fact that this is THE bullrun.
Ipso facto , Im not believing it , we will see prices around 13.5k-16k and then have a severe down move with targets of around 3.5k-4.5k and possibly even lower ( 2500-2800 area ). Im talking about the 2nd leg of the capitulation. When ? The quarter ends in a few days and by the way pa is developing now , i expect the high to be made in july / august followed by some serious FUD ( ban / hack or whatever ) that would justify the immense crash.
Make fun of me if you want , Im probably wrong but just wanted to put it out there.
Note
They went absolutely cray cray. State of the market : Futures gap x 2 now , FOMO in full effect , NVT super high , Tether printing money like its toiletpaper. Shorts getting squeezed. No healthy correction(s). Yeah this doesnt end well. Use tight stops or if you dont trust , just stay out of the market.
Retracing usually occurs between the .618 and .786 area , this doesnt fix the orderbook on the way down so unless the decide to bring in the wickerman , a new low seems more and more likely. Still expecting prices around 15-16k early in july for them then to drop some ban / hack or tether implosion which will be the catalyst to bring it all down.
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