Bitcoin - What Happened After the End of the Bear Market
15,460 USD—this value marked the ultimate low of the bear market in hindsight. My previous forecast for a bottom formation was exceeded by approximately 15%. This was not due to a lack of expertise but rather because I rarely publish ideas. Looking back, the levels around 18,000 USD were an excellent opportunity for long-term entry and position accumulation. Since then, Bitcoin has surged by an impressive 350% (as of today).
Market Development After the Bear Market
Today, I will not delve into Bitcoin’s fundamental situation. First, because it has reached a level of complexity that is difficult to fully grasp, and second, because fundamentals are almost irrelevant to my technical analysis and forecasts.
The current price action suggests that we are nearing the completion of Wave 1, which serves as the launchpad for the larger Wave 3. It is important to note that the previous all-time high of 109,358.01 USD may be surpassed if the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level is slightly above it. This means that, despite an initial sell-off, Bitcoin could still reach a maximum of 115,438.15 USD before a major correction begins.
However, if the previous all-time high already marked the end of Wave 1, then the price should retrace towards the 78.6% or even the 88.7% Fibonacci levels. Yes, this results in a broad range, but the goal is not to place a short trade—only to time a long trade effectively.
One thing is crystal clear: The next correction is imminent—or has already begun.
Outlook: Where Is the Next Profitable Long-Term Entry?
The art of investing lies in playing the long game and timing the market for optimal long positions. While dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is a solid strategy, it is particularly beneficial to invest larger tranches with careful planning.
Since my strategy is to hold Bitcoin for decades, I am looking for the next major buying opportunity.
Based on current market trends, I see two overlapping target zones for the upcoming correction:
🔹 Potential correction range: 35,774.30 - 58,928.75 USD
🔹 Key Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%) of Wave 1: 51,502.15 USD
I expect Bitcoin to correct at least to 51,502.15 USD. However, based on previous corrections and price structures, a deeper retracement is highly likely.
💡 My personal target zone for accumulating larger positions:
👉 35,774.30 - 51,502.15 USD
🚨 Bitcoin must not drop below 34,944.64 USD.
After the Correction: The Next Major Bullish Wave
Once the correction (Wave 2) finds its bottom between 34,944.64 - 51,502.15 USD, the market will be set for the explosive third wave of the larger Wave 3.
📈 Minimum price target for Wave 3: 160,000+ USD
📈 Further upside potential: Beyond 250,000 USD
Key Takeaway: Investing in Bitcoin is an investment in your future.
👉 Think long-term and minimize your risk.
Summary
1. Bear Market Recap
✅ Bear market bottom: 15,460 USD
✅ Forecast missed by ~15%
✅ 18,000 USD was a great long-term entry
✅ +350% price increase since then
2. Current Market Situation & Forecast
✅ Bitcoin is near the completion of Wave 1
✅ Possible breakout beyond all-time high (109,358.01 USD) to 115,438.15 USD
✅ A major correction is imminent—or has already begun
3. Ideal Long-Term Entry Points
✅ Target accumulation zone: 35,774.30 - 51,502.15 USD
✅ Expected correction at least to: 51,502.15 USD
✅ Absolute lower limit: 34,944.64 USD (must not be breached)
4. Long-Term Outlook
✅ Wave 3 to start after correction (Wave 2)
✅ Minimum target: 160,000 USD
✅ Potential long-term target: 250,000+ USD
✅ Investment strategy: Hold long-term & minimize risk
15,460 USD—this value marked the ultimate low of the bear market in hindsight. My previous forecast for a bottom formation was exceeded by approximately 15%. This was not due to a lack of expertise but rather because I rarely publish ideas. Looking back, the levels around 18,000 USD were an excellent opportunity for long-term entry and position accumulation. Since then, Bitcoin has surged by an impressive 350% (as of today).
Market Development After the Bear Market
Today, I will not delve into Bitcoin’s fundamental situation. First, because it has reached a level of complexity that is difficult to fully grasp, and second, because fundamentals are almost irrelevant to my technical analysis and forecasts.
The current price action suggests that we are nearing the completion of Wave 1, which serves as the launchpad for the larger Wave 3. It is important to note that the previous all-time high of 109,358.01 USD may be surpassed if the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level is slightly above it. This means that, despite an initial sell-off, Bitcoin could still reach a maximum of 115,438.15 USD before a major correction begins.
However, if the previous all-time high already marked the end of Wave 1, then the price should retrace towards the 78.6% or even the 88.7% Fibonacci levels. Yes, this results in a broad range, but the goal is not to place a short trade—only to time a long trade effectively.
One thing is crystal clear: The next correction is imminent—or has already begun.
Outlook: Where Is the Next Profitable Long-Term Entry?
The art of investing lies in playing the long game and timing the market for optimal long positions. While dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is a solid strategy, it is particularly beneficial to invest larger tranches with careful planning.
Since my strategy is to hold Bitcoin for decades, I am looking for the next major buying opportunity.
Based on current market trends, I see two overlapping target zones for the upcoming correction:
🔹 Potential correction range: 35,774.30 - 58,928.75 USD
🔹 Key Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%) of Wave 1: 51,502.15 USD
I expect Bitcoin to correct at least to 51,502.15 USD. However, based on previous corrections and price structures, a deeper retracement is highly likely.
💡 My personal target zone for accumulating larger positions:
👉 35,774.30 - 51,502.15 USD
🚨 Bitcoin must not drop below 34,944.64 USD.
After the Correction: The Next Major Bullish Wave
Once the correction (Wave 2) finds its bottom between 34,944.64 - 51,502.15 USD, the market will be set for the explosive third wave of the larger Wave 3.
📈 Minimum price target for Wave 3: 160,000+ USD
📈 Further upside potential: Beyond 250,000 USD
Key Takeaway: Investing in Bitcoin is an investment in your future.
👉 Think long-term and minimize your risk.
Summary
1. Bear Market Recap
✅ Bear market bottom: 15,460 USD
✅ Forecast missed by ~15%
✅ 18,000 USD was a great long-term entry
✅ +350% price increase since then
2. Current Market Situation & Forecast
✅ Bitcoin is near the completion of Wave 1
✅ Possible breakout beyond all-time high (109,358.01 USD) to 115,438.15 USD
✅ A major correction is imminent—or has already begun
3. Ideal Long-Term Entry Points
✅ Target accumulation zone: 35,774.30 - 51,502.15 USD
✅ Expected correction at least to: 51,502.15 USD
✅ Absolute lower limit: 34,944.64 USD (must not be breached)
4. Long-Term Outlook
✅ Wave 3 to start after correction (Wave 2)
✅ Minimum target: 160,000 USD
✅ Potential long-term target: 250,000+ USD
✅ Investment strategy: Hold long-term & minimize risk
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.