BTCUSD: Why I am not expecting a massive dump coming up.
Updated
Using the FUSIONGAP oscillator (Zoomed out).
The FUSIONGAPS series oscillators can also be set to log-scale to determine oversold/bought condition, or bullish/bearish phase/flip of the market.
This is why I am not expecting a massive dump down to an all time low, or anything too brutal.
If BTC's next move is a further downward correction, I'd expected it to drop to ~9000 USD or even ~8500 USD at the very most.
Observing that there are way too many people standing on the sideline waiting to buy BTC below 10kUSD, and especially below 9kUSD.
And also quite likely, the market may instead do the opposite and move on higher, leaving those who have not bought in yet and are still waiting behind.
Hence, at the moment, I believe it is unlikely for BTC to drop lower than that -- but will need to reassess the chart when the time comes, of course.
The FUSIONGAPS series oscillators can also be set to log-scale to determine oversold/bought condition, or bullish/bearish phase/flip of the market.
This is why I am not expecting a massive dump down to an all time low, or anything too brutal.
If BTC's next move is a further downward correction, I'd expected it to drop to ~9000 USD or even ~8500 USD at the very most.
Observing that there are way too many people standing on the sideline waiting to buy BTC below 10kUSD, and especially below 9kUSD.
And also quite likely, the market may instead do the opposite and move on higher, leaving those who have not bought in yet and are still waiting behind.
Hence, at the moment, I believe it is unlikely for BTC to drop lower than that -- but will need to reassess the chart when the time comes, of course.
Note
Will the market allow those who missed the "bottom" (or close to the bottom) to buy it the second time? I personally believe very unlikely.Note
(Quote): "What about NOV 2018? It don't need to be in a bubble to crash down."My view is that the current market condition is very different from that around Nov 18, with extremely low volume and volatility.
The FUSIONGAPS oscillator shows that the market is now in a net bullish phase (i.e. all FG oscillators are significantly in the positive), in contrast to how it was in Nov18.
Furthermore, as explained above, I believe/speculate that there are enough people waiting for a dip to below 10k down to 8.5k to buy in to provide a strong safety-net support.
====
Also, the lack of a stdev-squeeze in my AEONDRIFT band, tells me that it is unlikely that a massive move will occur.
However, I believe it still might, but only if the market continues to painfully move sideways for quite awhile, and a low volume and liquidity is sustained (as traders are pushed out due to the lack of volatility), allowing price to be easily pushed either way with less capital.
Will continue to keep watch on the AEONDRIFT bands + FUSIONGAP oscillators + FG-based momentum/acceleration.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.