After the first big parabolic move bitcoin hit an initial resistance at around 7550 and formed the sharped drop shown in the first red box. This was then followed by a move to the upside where resistance was quickly met at around 8250. A pennant then formed and the result was the second big parabolic move that we have recently experienced. In my opinion, it is possible that the sharp drop we witnessed shown in the second red box is the first move of a second larger pennant. If bitcoin can rally up passed the 13800 resistance area a second resistance may be met around 14350. If this occurs and another dramatic move to the downside follows, I think it is highly likely that a second much larger pennant is forming. This will likely give bitcoin the momentum to rally straight up to 20000 once the pennant is complete. However, if bitcoin is unable to surpass the resistance at 13800, the prospect of a second pennant forming will become weak and serious downside movement may follow. In addition, if the 13800 level is surpassed, the intensity of the bullish momentum may cut straight through the second resistance area proposed. If so, a move to 20000 may occur without a second pennant even forming.
Therefore, the formation of a large bull pennant is dependent on two main criteria:
1. Bitcoin surpasses the 13800 area of resistance
2. Bitcoin meets more resistance at the 14350 area
You will notice that based on the two criteria shown above, only the first is necessary to signal a bullish move. The second will merely slow the rate at which 20000 is reached due to the likely formation of a pennant.
Smoking Horsey