Bitcoin ABC correction completed or start of a rally?
Updated
After creating maximum confusion the past days, the market eventually completed the ABC correction. So before getting bullish, it's important to remain objective at this point.
I said in bullish and bearish version, this ABC' up was likely to happen, so in other words, it is still bullish AND bearish at this point. We could simply just drop again from these levels. At the moment it is already becoming a very weak and ugly bull flag on the 5 min chart, but it could become a better flag on the 1h if we can stay above the 3700ish today. Can see some big sell spoof orders on Mex', trying to push the price down. But i can't say if they try to hold the price or that they really want to force a dump again. They are even increasing the sell order to 17mil now.
A big disappointment is the fact that ETH' was not able to make a higher high. Suggesting weakness from that side. So it's either a very big sign of weakness, suggesting a very big drop is coming, or the correction up is not done yet. Some alts showing similar picture as ETH' (when i talk about alts, i mean the top 10/20)
As i mentioned in my previous analysis, for a bullish version, it nis very important the market finds support above the previous high. So for BTC' that level is around 3640/60. To show some strength, the bulls should try to hold the current bull flag above 3700/3710. When looking on the fractal chart on the left (which has been a good guideline so far), we are in on of those 2 blue circle. But for a bullish version, the fractal should have ended now, because the fractal indicates a bear trend for the coming weeks/days.
Bitcoin' is above that red zone on the right, the level i mentioned a week ago being the difference between the bull and bear sentiment/trend.
So all these factors taken together, it is neutral at this point, best the 3700ish holds and a max drop to 3650ish is allowed as well. Below that level, bearish movement is more likely. From what i can see, i think the 3800/20 is a level to break for the bulls.
I wrote this analysis in a hurry because of personal circumstances, sorry about that :), but i will try to make a new one later today or tomorrow. Hopefully we have a few more signs until then.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
I said in bullish and bearish version, this ABC' up was likely to happen, so in other words, it is still bullish AND bearish at this point. We could simply just drop again from these levels. At the moment it is already becoming a very weak and ugly bull flag on the 5 min chart, but it could become a better flag on the 1h if we can stay above the 3700ish today. Can see some big sell spoof orders on Mex', trying to push the price down. But i can't say if they try to hold the price or that they really want to force a dump again. They are even increasing the sell order to 17mil now.
A big disappointment is the fact that ETH' was not able to make a higher high. Suggesting weakness from that side. So it's either a very big sign of weakness, suggesting a very big drop is coming, or the correction up is not done yet. Some alts showing similar picture as ETH' (when i talk about alts, i mean the top 10/20)
As i mentioned in my previous analysis, for a bullish version, it nis very important the market finds support above the previous high. So for BTC' that level is around 3640/60. To show some strength, the bulls should try to hold the current bull flag above 3700/3710. When looking on the fractal chart on the left (which has been a good guideline so far), we are in on of those 2 blue circle. But for a bullish version, the fractal should have ended now, because the fractal indicates a bear trend for the coming weeks/days.
Bitcoin' is above that red zone on the right, the level i mentioned a week ago being the difference between the bull and bear sentiment/trend.
So all these factors taken together, it is neutral at this point, best the 3700ish holds and a max drop to 3650ish is allowed as well. Below that level, bearish movement is more likely. From what i can see, i think the 3800/20 is a level to break for the bulls.
I wrote this analysis in a hurry because of personal circumstances, sorry about that :), but i will try to make a new one later today or tomorrow. Hopefully we have a few more signs until then.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
To give an impression, the low time frame bull flag failed already, seems to be a channel which we could break up from. So would be best to see that bigger bull flag form the coming 24h or so. Ideally, if this happens, we want to see ETH be relatively higher than BTC around the yellow circle. Note
Really do not want to see it drop out of this small channel, because that would prob mean a quick drop to the second green support around 3650. That would be in favor of the bearish trend if it would happen that fast.Note
Ooh crap, i see that i posted my last updates in the wrong btc analysis, sorry about that.16 hours ago
Comment: Kraken made a big squeeze up once again, the other one was 01 Jan, also a low volume day. The volume that day was a bit higher. I don't know if it is an indication again or not, just wanted to show it. Since the move afterwards was up.
The current bull flag is also less convincing, but still possibly in play.
13 hours ago
Comment: The daily which looked decent earlier and volume was okay as well, started to look quite weak now. The bull flag shows no sign of buying. So it needs a small bounce sooner or later, otherwise chances increase for a bull trap
Note
The weak alts were a sign this time. So the past week or 2, the alt signs for the bearish views have worked out but for the bullish views they failed. We just made a big drop again with a small bear flag in the middle. So there is a chance we might be moving sideways the rest of the day. But the trend is down at the moment. The bulls do still have the 3200/3300 zone that could still work out. There is no saying if it will easily crack or if it will become the new 6000/6200 zone. I don't know yet. My best guess for now is, going sideways the rest of the day. If make a big bear flag below the 3600/3550, chances are very high we will see another drop to somewhere in or close to that green support on the right. If we start to drop within the hour again (which would be a sign of panic), things could get very ugly i think.
There is one important thing we need to keep in mind, volume is very low still, even with these drops. Which means nasty tricks can easily happen. But as we have seen the past weeks, low volume is in general bearish.
Note
The past few hours it seems we are seeing an identical move again. Showing again how bots have the majority of the volume in this market. Of course it's no guarantee, but if we move in a similar way the coming 12 hours or so, it could become a Bart move up again. Ignoring this, we should see at least one more drop, could be slightly below today's or a very big drop, don't know yet. But the fact that we are hanging below that former support zone around 3600, suggest that all this price action today from the low, is just a retest. But the fractal is very similar, so i would watch it closely
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The ETH one already failed, at least has a very different picture. Bitcoin is still in play, but from the looks of it, the volume picture seems to be different as well, looks like more sell volume this time. So i would be very careful now with this picture nowNote
Looking very weak now, chances increase that it will drop. Eth has been a weak link since yesterday, already dropping towards the low. Btc is is still hanging at support now, but becoming more likely that it will make a drop. Could be a small drop like I mentioned before, could be a big one, really can’t say at this momentNote
I see it already made a small drop just now. Looking on my phone so just missed it. I think it’s the last wave of this drop since the 3790. So we could see a bigger correction after this drop. The support zones can be very big around 3200/3300. If that zone breaks like hot knife through butter, it can get very uglyNote
If it’s can bounce above the 3540/50 soon again, it could invalidate the break of the bear flagNote
We keep seeing rejections each time we see the market trying to push above 3550ish. This is usually a bearish sign, also because we are still moving inside of that bear flag. ETH is also still in a very dangerous zone, because it touched the neckline of that possible H&S again and now still hanging above it. That triangle pattern is what should break up for the bulls to take the weight off of it. So BTC should prob break the 3580ish to get more neutralNote
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ETH analysis:
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Volume is increasing at the moment. The bounce up is bigger than the drop it just made. So there is a chance it did that last drop just now, the one i mentioned a few times.The one i did not know if it would be just slightly below the one of 2 days ago or that it will be a big drop. Looks like a small bull flag now, if the bull can hold the 3520/40, we could see another jump up
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If the bulls can push it above the 3700/50 today with good volume, there is a big chance a reversal is set and the trend will be bullish again. But that means bull need to show strength, so they have to keep it above the 3540/20 nowNote
New Bitcoin analysis:
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