Macro consolidation S/R levels and breakout targets
Updated
Price remains in a macro consolidation pattern and has followed this fractal closely so far:
Now that we've potentially formed a local low, I've done some margin pressure analysis to help anticipate support/resistance levels. The levels are based on the following two assumptions:
(1) Leveraged longs are likely to have their liquidation points protected by the 39.5k local low support
(2) Leveraged shorts are likely to have their liquidation points protected by the 69k ATH resistance
I believe the strongest resistance will occur at the nearest level (~
46K), where we see:
(1) Consolidation S/R trendline
(2) 3x short pressure decreases
(3) 7x long pressure increases
(4) Midpoint of consolidation range
A break above the ~
52K resistance zone would appear quite bullish as it would invalidate bearish H&S scenarios.
Obviously, price won't remain in this range forever. If/when price breaks out, these are my next targets:
Upside: 79k
Downside: 34.5k
Now that we've potentially formed a local low, I've done some margin pressure analysis to help anticipate support/resistance levels. The levels are based on the following two assumptions:
(1) Leveraged longs are likely to have their liquidation points protected by the 39.5k local low support
(2) Leveraged shorts are likely to have their liquidation points protected by the 69k ATH resistance
I believe the strongest resistance will occur at the nearest level (~
46K), where we see:(1) Consolidation S/R trendline
(2) 3x short pressure decreases
(3) 7x long pressure increases
(4) Midpoint of consolidation range
A break above the ~
52K resistance zone would appear quite bullish as it would invalidate bearish H&S scenarios. Obviously, price won't remain in this range forever. If/when price breaks out, these are my next targets:
Upside: 79k
Downside: 34.5k
Note
Scripts for plotting margin pressure levels:Long:
Short:
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