BTC/XBT
Updated
I don't post much here much, but was compelled by those who ignore the obvious macro trends that can tank push crypto once way or another. Let's get something straight, BTC is most certainly correlated with the S&P right now. It acts very much like gold. In an illiquid scenario, investors cover losses by selling any liquid assets (such as BTC)
Anyways, I see something odd in my normal trading strategy; I use a simple oscillator/stochastic strategy to run my Algorithmic trading. The lengths between buy and sell signals are important in detecting short term trends (week or two out). The design makes money with volatility and holds it's position during long bull or bear runs. Longer position holds in either direction signifies a changing trend in the 3 or 4 week term.
This is the past week or so. Notice two or more $800/₿ drops. Jun 2nd is a dump, and thus buyers rejoice at a bargain price and re-push the price higher. Jun 11th is a sell off -- Multiple sellers taking market sell orders and not one single coordinated player.
This is late February and March. Notice that when the first pullback happens, the market is still in selling mode. Then we side channel or gain slightly and hit the next pullback. The three full pullbacks end with a crash.
You may be asking, what should I make of this?
A: The large equity problems of the market will force a selloff by retail investors. This has happened in March when even gold took a tumble. BTC is considerably more volatile than gold and more liquid. I give it a week before we see another sell off if the equitymarket continues in this direction. In the meantime, if you bought at 9200 or below, look for a sell opportunity in the mid 9000's.
Anyways, I see something odd in my normal trading strategy; I use a simple oscillator/stochastic strategy to run my Algorithmic trading. The lengths between buy and sell signals are important in detecting short term trends (week or two out). The design makes money with volatility and holds it's position during long bull or bear runs. Longer position holds in either direction signifies a changing trend in the 3 or 4 week term.
- What we are seeing now is a rather long pause in buying. Notice the difference below between a fast drop on June 2nd and June 11th.
- Long pauses in buy signals typically speak to a longer drawback and these typically happen 3x times in a sell off (not a whale dump, retail investors selling off)
- In a prolonged selloff I typically see three of these prolonged buy hesitations. We've just had one.
This is the past week or so. Notice two or more $800/₿ drops. Jun 2nd is a dump, and thus buyers rejoice at a bargain price and re-push the price higher. Jun 11th is a sell off -- Multiple sellers taking market sell orders and not one single coordinated player.
This is late February and March. Notice that when the first pullback happens, the market is still in selling mode. Then we side channel or gain slightly and hit the next pullback. The three full pullbacks end with a crash.
- Feb 26th Feb 28th
- Mar 1st - Mar 3rd
- Mar 8
You may be asking, what should I make of this?
A: The large equity problems of the market will force a selloff by retail investors. This has happened in March when even gold took a tumble. BTC is considerably more volatile than gold and more liquid. I give it a week before we see another sell off if the equitymarket continues in this direction. In the meantime, if you bought at 9200 or below, look for a sell opportunity in the mid 9000's.
Note
So about a week later we've hit another long sell side and I expect the market to continue down to at least 8000's range.Net exchange inflows are crazy today so we may see a huge amount of selling. Godspeed!
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