1. Technical indicators collectively "light up red": understand the three key signals
1. The fatal moving average crossover is about to form
• The 50-hour moving average (US$83,200) and the 100-hour moving average (US$83,800) are about to undergo a "death cross", which is the first time since the bull market started in February
• Historical data shows that the average decline within 7 days after a similar crossover in the past three years was 12.3%
• Although the 200-hour moving average (US$80,500) is still above, the slope has changed from +2.1% to -0.7%, and the support strength is questionable
2. The MACD indicator sends a divergence signal
• The daily MACD column has shrunk for 5 consecutive days, and the current value of 0.87 is 30% lower than the peak of 1.24 on April 10
• The more dangerous signal is: when the price fluctuation range narrows, there is a volume divergence (the trading volume on April 15th fell 18% from the previous day, but the fluctuation range expanded)
3. Fibonacci key position is in danger
• The current price is in the "iron triangle" range formed by the 0.382 retracement level (US$82,900) and the 0.5 retracement level (US$81,200)
• Once it falls below the 83K defense line, the support below will directly test 78K (0.618) and 75K (psychological integer)
2. Focus of long and short game: Why has 83K become a "battlefield"?
▶ Stop loss concentration area for institutional investors
On-chain data shows that about 427,000 BTC have completed turnover in the range of US$83,000-84,500, among which the holding costs of institutional investors such as Grayscale are concentrated around US$83,200. This means:
• Falling below 83K may trigger the "avalanche effect" of programmed stop-loss orders
• The derivatives market has shown signs: BitMEX perpetual contract funding rate has dropped to -0.023%, the first negative in nearly three months
▶ The critical point of miner selling pressure
According to F2Pool data:
• The current average mining cost of the entire network is about US$71,300
• When the coin price is lower than 83K, mining farms using old mining machines such as Antminer S19 XP will enter a "cash flow loss" state
• Historical experience shows that when the net outflow of miners exceeds 8,000 BTC per day, it often triggers a spiral decline
III. "Dangerous cracks" in market sentiment: These data are changing
1. Exchange inventory surges
• Coinbase cold wallet transfer volume has dropped 64% in the past three days, and the exchange BTC balance has increased to 2.35 million (weekly increase of 9.2%)
• It is usually regarded as a precursor to "preparing to sell"
2. Abnormal behavior of giant whale addresses
• Addresses holding 1,000-10,000 BTC reduced their holdings by 48,000 this week, a new high since June 2023
• However, "super whales" holding more than 10,000 BTC are increasing their holdings against the trend, forming a "big player showdown" pattern
3. The betting direction of the options market has changed suddenly
• Deribit data shows that the open interest of put options expiring on April 25 surged by 37%, concentrated in the strike price of US$75,000-78,000
• However, call option positions are still higher than put contracts (ratio 1.4:1), reflecting the intensification of market differences
V. Operational suggestions: How should ordinary investors respond?
▶ Short-term traders
• Key observation position: Whether the hourly closing price is below $82,900 for two consecutive hours
• If confirmed to fall below: immediately start hedging strategy (it is recommended to buy a put option with an exercise price of $78,000, and the cost is about 2.1%-2.7% of the position value)
“The market is always reborn in despair and perishes in carnival.” When technical indicators conflict with market sentiment, it may be the best time to test investment discipline. Whether Bitcoin can hold the result of this battle to break through $86,000 may redefine the bull-bear pattern of the crypto market.
If you don't know when to enter the market, follow me, the market will verify the accuracy of each of my signals, Baker Bitcoin Gold Trading Center will update and verify in real time, recover losses, and expand profits. Leave me a message.
BTCUSD 
BTCUSDT BTCUSDT.P BTCUSDT.P BTCUSD BTCUSD
1. The fatal moving average crossover is about to form
• The 50-hour moving average (US$83,200) and the 100-hour moving average (US$83,800) are about to undergo a "death cross", which is the first time since the bull market started in February
• Historical data shows that the average decline within 7 days after a similar crossover in the past three years was 12.3%
• Although the 200-hour moving average (US$80,500) is still above, the slope has changed from +2.1% to -0.7%, and the support strength is questionable
2. The MACD indicator sends a divergence signal
• The daily MACD column has shrunk for 5 consecutive days, and the current value of 0.87 is 30% lower than the peak of 1.24 on April 10
• The more dangerous signal is: when the price fluctuation range narrows, there is a volume divergence (the trading volume on April 15th fell 18% from the previous day, but the fluctuation range expanded)
3. Fibonacci key position is in danger
• The current price is in the "iron triangle" range formed by the 0.382 retracement level (US$82,900) and the 0.5 retracement level (US$81,200)
• Once it falls below the 83K defense line, the support below will directly test 78K (0.618) and 75K (psychological integer)
2. Focus of long and short game: Why has 83K become a "battlefield"?
▶ Stop loss concentration area for institutional investors
On-chain data shows that about 427,000 BTC have completed turnover in the range of US$83,000-84,500, among which the holding costs of institutional investors such as Grayscale are concentrated around US$83,200. This means:
• Falling below 83K may trigger the "avalanche effect" of programmed stop-loss orders
• The derivatives market has shown signs: BitMEX perpetual contract funding rate has dropped to -0.023%, the first negative in nearly three months
▶ The critical point of miner selling pressure
According to F2Pool data:
• The current average mining cost of the entire network is about US$71,300
• When the coin price is lower than 83K, mining farms using old mining machines such as Antminer S19 XP will enter a "cash flow loss" state
• Historical experience shows that when the net outflow of miners exceeds 8,000 BTC per day, it often triggers a spiral decline
III. "Dangerous cracks" in market sentiment: These data are changing
1. Exchange inventory surges
• Coinbase cold wallet transfer volume has dropped 64% in the past three days, and the exchange BTC balance has increased to 2.35 million (weekly increase of 9.2%)
• It is usually regarded as a precursor to "preparing to sell"
2. Abnormal behavior of giant whale addresses
• Addresses holding 1,000-10,000 BTC reduced their holdings by 48,000 this week, a new high since June 2023
• However, "super whales" holding more than 10,000 BTC are increasing their holdings against the trend, forming a "big player showdown" pattern
3. The betting direction of the options market has changed suddenly
• Deribit data shows that the open interest of put options expiring on April 25 surged by 37%, concentrated in the strike price of US$75,000-78,000
• However, call option positions are still higher than put contracts (ratio 1.4:1), reflecting the intensification of market differences
V. Operational suggestions: How should ordinary investors respond?
▶ Short-term traders
• Key observation position: Whether the hourly closing price is below $82,900 for two consecutive hours
• If confirmed to fall below: immediately start hedging strategy (it is recommended to buy a put option with an exercise price of $78,000, and the cost is about 2.1%-2.7% of the position value)
“The market is always reborn in despair and perishes in carnival.” When technical indicators conflict with market sentiment, it may be the best time to test investment discipline. Whether Bitcoin can hold the result of this battle to break through $86,000 may redefine the bull-bear pattern of the crypto market.
If you don't know when to enter the market, follow me, the market will verify the accuracy of each of my signals, Baker Bitcoin Gold Trading Center will update and verify in real time, recover losses, and expand profits. Leave me a message.
BTCUSD BTCUSDT BTCUSDT.P BTCUSDT.P BTCUSD BTCUSD 
✔Copy accurate trading signals✔Manage accounts🎁Stable profit of more than 210.8% per week🎁Success rate is as high as 98.55%, real-time communication: t.me/cryptoanalyst_baker
Signal entry: t.me/FcCygjylf
Signal entry: t.me/FcCygjylf
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
✔Copy accurate trading signals✔Manage accounts🎁Stable profit of more than 210.8% per week🎁Success rate is as high as 98.55%, real-time communication: t.me/cryptoanalyst_baker
Signal entry: t.me/FcCygjylf
Signal entry: t.me/FcCygjylf
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.