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comment: 3 legs down, bull flag trend line break but confirmation is only above 106840. It’s still much more bullish than bearish, since bears could not close the gap down to the April high 97915. Market expects a re-test of 110000 or higher and this breakout of the bull flag is as textbook perfect as it gets. Only a daily close below 100000 will change my bias and I will begin to look for lower targets again.
current market cycle: Broad bull channel on the weekly tf. Market is about to re-test the ath and will likely transition into a trading range afterwards or we are already in one.
key levels: 100k - 115k
bull case: Confirmation for the bull flag breakout is 106840, stop has to be 100300. 110000 is expected and you never know in advance if you get a a higher or lower high from double tops/test of the extremes.
Invalidation is a daily close below 100k
bear case: Bears tried 3 times and are likely to give up until we have a credible double top and more signs that the bulls are exhausted and can not push much beyond 110k. Can you sell 106k now and hope for a failed breakout? I don’t think that is a good trade at all. As a bear I would wait.
Invalidation is above 116k
short term: Bullish for 110k, invalidation is below 100k. I don’t expect much above 110k, maybe 115k.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-08: Need to see a clear sign that bulls can not push it beyond 112k and once we turn again from closer to the ath, I will comment on bear targets for the next months.
comment: 3 legs down, bull flag trend line break but confirmation is only above 106840. It’s still much more bullish than bearish, since bears could not close the gap down to the April high 97915. Market expects a re-test of 110000 or higher and this breakout of the bull flag is as textbook perfect as it gets. Only a daily close below 100000 will change my bias and I will begin to look for lower targets again.
current market cycle: Broad bull channel on the weekly tf. Market is about to re-test the ath and will likely transition into a trading range afterwards or we are already in one.
key levels: 100k - 115k
bull case: Confirmation for the bull flag breakout is 106840, stop has to be 100300. 110000 is expected and you never know in advance if you get a a higher or lower high from double tops/test of the extremes.
Invalidation is a daily close below 100k
bear case: Bears tried 3 times and are likely to give up until we have a credible double top and more signs that the bulls are exhausted and can not push much beyond 110k. Can you sell 106k now and hope for a failed breakout? I don’t think that is a good trade at all. As a bear I would wait.
Invalidation is above 116k
short term: Bullish for 110k, invalidation is below 100k. I don’t expect much above 110k, maybe 115k.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-08: Need to see a clear sign that bulls can not push it beyond 112k and once we turn again from closer to the ath, I will comment on bear targets for the next months.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.