Old chart revisited and shows some surprises
On first glance, the Run from 2017 to the 2021 ATH and the current path from 2021 to the Next ATH, could be seen to be very different in so many ways.
And They are, I pointed out the First and most prominent difference recently when I showed how PA was level with previous ATH level at the Time of Halving for the First time Ever.
However, as this old chart shows, now that we have a few more Months of data on it, there are still some Very strong Similarities...and this is a Very BULLISH thing
Lets have a look ( please note, this is a weekly chart-days count is subject to 7 day variation)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z54keIBX/
2017 ATH to Next Low ( A) 217 days
2021 Nov ATH to next Low ( C) 217 days
Dec 2018 Low point A to Halving 518 days
Nov 2022 Low point C to Halving 518 days
Given the similarities above, is it safe to assume this continuity may continue ?
The Simple answer is NO but let us have a look at some projections using this data because, it Does have confluence with many other charts
May 2020 Halving to Next ATH - 336 days
April 2024 Halving. If we use the 336 days then we end up with a projected next ATH in March 2025. This is a widely used expected date date
May 2020 Halving date to continued push up to New ATH ( green box on left ) = 119 days
April 2024 Halving. If we use the same day count, we come to August as the time when we should see a continued push higher. I do have other charts that point more towards July but August could be considered to be within a range of Tolerance...
Other things to note here are -
1) PS this time is Much more "controlled". e are rising slowly and carefully. The 2017 to 2021 was a Volatile and Choppy rise as can be seen by the Massive Ups and downs of PA. We are being a Lot more controlled, to try and avoid these sudden and painful Dips;
2) The RSI ( Top indicator below the Volume bars ) is currently a lot higher than on previous Halvings. ( orange vertical lines )
https://www.tradingview.com/x/10X22srx/
This is due to the continued and steady Rise of PA over the last 19 months - Previously, RSI rose post Halving, We are currently Dropping.. Fast...and I expect we will be where we need to be by the July / August date mentioned above.
3) The ATR ( bottom indicator that measure Market Volatility ) is way up high now where as, on the 202 Halving, ATR was Down low. However, as we saw in the 2021 year, ATR can range high for extended Periods of Time.
All in all, for me, some interesting similarities and possibilities here. Even though efforts are being made to control the market and rise smoothly, we are still working with in the same time periods as previous Runs...
These are all Just IDEAS...untill it happens, nothing os certain..But it can lead to other ideas and options.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.